January 2023

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don how did Dec 2022 make this list up at 4?  It didn't snow in any really populated megalopolis city?

Also has anyone wrote to them complaining about the error of the map for Jan 2016, there was a large stripe of 30+ snow that went west to east from Harrisburg to Allentown right to JFK and Oceanside....they have us in 20-30, it should be in the "red zone"?

 

From the site: “The aerial distribution of snowfall and population information are combined in an equation that calculates a NESIS score…”

The score may yet be adjusted. 

[Great Snow 1717]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm still going to bed and waking up early to see If the models become favorable lol

If you are looking for more favorable models I suggest you purchase the 2023 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue!

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like the chances are more likely it will rain (even inland) rather than go offshore? 

There are a variety of solutions. The absence of sufficient cold will be the biggest problem.

[North and West]

If you are looking for more favorable models I suggest you purchase the 2023 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue!

Justin Verlander is a role model.




.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 2002-2003 was the last time all 3 winter months averaged colder than normal in the same season for NYC.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=NY&stationID=94728&_target2=Next+>

Dec…-1.3

Jan….-4.6

Feb….-4.5

Amazing that 2002-03 is never recalled for cold and yet it was so consistently cold, moreso than 2010-11 which had all those consecutive days of snowcover.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

11 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Actually hit freezing last night for a short time, first time this month.

I got down to 31F overnight, was surprised. Pinelands microclimate ftw.

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I got down to 31F overnight, was surprised. Pinelands microclimate ftw.

Perhaps they can film the remake of Ice Station Zebra in Pinelands!!

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Amazing that 2002-03 is never recalled for cold and yet it was so consistently cold, moreso than 2010-11 which had all those consecutive days of snowcover.

 

The snowfall rates over 33 days were much more impressive in 10-11 than any other year including 95-96. Newark got 60”+ from late December to late January. So they would have passed 95-96 at those rates by late February or early March. But the pattern reversed too soon.

 

Data for December 26, 2010 through January 28, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
NJ	WESTFIELD 1.0 NE	CoCoRaHS	70.1
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	61.5
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	60.2
CT	DANBURY	COOP	59.9
CT	MILFORD 2.9 ESE	CoCoRaHS	59.1
CT	BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE	CoCoRaHS	59.0
CT	PORTLAND 0.9 S	CoCoRaHS	59.0
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	57.3
NJ	TENAFLY 1.3 W	CoCoRaHS	57.0
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	56.0

 

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	61.5	2011-01-27	0
2	53.6	2011-01-26	0
3	48.7	1978-02-14	0
4	45.7	1978-02-18	0
5	45.5	1961-02-16	0
6	45.2	1978-02-13	0
7	45.0	1978-02-15	0
8	44.9	1978-02-17	0
9	44.8	1961-02-15	0
10	44.6	1961-02-17	0
11	44.2	1978-02-10	0
12	43.9	1978-02-12	0
13	43.8	2011-01-28	0
14	43.5	1948-01-24	0
15	43.1	1978-02-06	0
16	42.7	1996-01-15	0

[eduggs]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

From the site: “The aerial distribution of snowfall and population information are combined in an equation that calculates a NESIS score…”

The score may yet be adjusted. 

 

I think that storm broke the algorithm. 8 day storm? Pretty generous 4" coverage on the southern periphery. Getting the NYC to Trenton corridor in that areal coverage also probably helps the score. I guess technically a T is < 4"

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Best skiing is in the Rockies.  Most of the skiiers will probably be going there from now on.

And California.

actually, they’re having big problems out west. while this year has been good, they are totally dependent on natural snow because the ski areas are too big to make the kind of man made snow possible.

 

They have been dealing with years of snow drought and rapid warming. Skiing out west is in a precarious situation.

 

A small ski area in the northeast with the ability to pump out a lot of man made snow when it is cold is in the best position to weather climate change of the next 50 years. Beyond that it becomes untenable.

 

Even more precarious are the Alps. Terrible climate change situation there

 

 

[wdrag]

Focus on big storms 8+ days in advance?  Maybe this one will work for 1/13-16? I'm more worried about spotty 5" of rain in our NYC subforum (CT/NJ or even se NYS) than 5" of snow. We're not done on front end snow but model thinking seems wetter than white.

Meanwhile: Modeling is trying to offer PHL and NYC their first measurable snow of the season at sunrise Monday. 

and  Yesterday,  MA did okay (1-3") with the snow, and far northern CT as well as Pocs had some T-1/2" amounts. Close but bust on looking out from 12/23-24 GFS ideas +SNOD Change.  For me it illustrates that 100 miles can make quite a difference at D8-16.  Has in part to do with modeling of the features aloft. That's why tempering enthusiasm at those time frames is probably wise. 

I think mPing may be fun early Monday.  Probably melts on contact in the cities but still for me, a worthy future review. 

 

[MJO812]

Congrats us

[MJO812]

My friend in Minnesota is complaining about the cold and the amount of snow she has received this winter .

 

[Allsnow]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The snowfall rates over 33 days were much more impressive in 10-11 than any other year including 95-96. Newark got 60”+ from late December to late January. So they would have passed 95-96 at those rates by late February or early March. But the pattern reversed too soon.

 

Data for December 26, 2010 through January 28, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
NJ	WESTFIELD 1.0 NE	CoCoRaHS	70.1
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	61.5
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	60.2
CT	DANBURY	COOP	59.9
CT	MILFORD 2.9 ESE	CoCoRaHS	59.1
CT	BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE	CoCoRaHS	59.0
CT	PORTLAND 0.9 S	CoCoRaHS	59.0
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	57.3
NJ	TENAFLY 1.3 W	CoCoRaHS	57.0
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	56.0

 

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	61.5	2011-01-27	0
2	53.6	2011-01-26	0
3	48.7	1978-02-14	0
4	45.7	1978-02-18	0
5	45.5	1961-02-16	0
6	45.2	1978-02-13	0
7	45.0	1978-02-15	0
8	44.9	1978-02-17	0
9	44.8	1961-02-15	0
10	44.6	1961-02-17	0
11	44.2	1978-02-10	0
12	43.9	1978-02-12	0
13	43.8	2011-01-28	0
14	43.5	1948-01-24	0
15	43.1	1978-02-06	0
16	42.7	1996-01-15	0

13/14 was on track to beat 95/96 but that dam tpv parked itself over Maine in March. Kept us cold and dry 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

actually, they’re having big problems out west. while this year has been good, they are totally dependent on natural snow because the ski areas are too big to make the kind of man made snow possible.

 

They have been dealing with years of snow drought and rapid warming. Skiing out west is in a precarious situation.

 

A small ski area in the northeast with the ability to pump out a lot of man made snow when it is cold is in the best position to weather climate change of the next 50 years. Beyond that it becomes untenable.

 

Even more precarious are the Alps. Terrible climate change situation there

 

 

Yep I see large stretches of barren land in the Alps in the winter, they are going to have a lot of fresh water shortages in Europe too.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

13/14 was on track to beat 95/96 but that dam tpv parked itself over Maine in March. Kept us cold and dry 

I always thought 13-14 was further down the list because most of those snowfall events were mixed precip.

To give a winter an A+ there must be at least one widespread 20"+ snowstorm.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My friend in Minnesota is complaining about the cold and the amount of snow she has received this winter .

 

they're always cold and snowy

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Focus on big storms 8+ days in advance?  Maybe this one will work for 1/13-16? I'm more worried about spotty 5" of rain in our NYC subforum (CT/NJ or even se NYS) than 5" of snow. We're not done on front end snow but model thinking seems wetter than white.

Meanwhile: Modeling is trying to offer PHL and NYC their first measurable snow of the season at sunrise Monday. 

and  Yesterday,  MA did okay (1-3") with the snow, and far northern CT as well as Pocs had some T-1/2" amounts. Close but bust on looking out from 12/23-24 GFS ideas +SNOD Change.  For me it illustrates that 100 miles can make quite a difference at D8-16.  Has in part to do with modeling of the features aloft. That's why tempering enthusiasm at those time frames is probably wise. 

I think mPing may be fun early Monday.  Probably melts on contact in the cities but still for me, a worthy future review. 

 

Walt, I heard that the Poconos had some snow this morning too?

 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The snowfall rates over 33 days were much more impressive in 10-11 than any other year including 95-96. Newark got 60”+ from late December to late January. So they would have passed 95-96 at those rates by late February or early March. But the pattern reversed too soon.

 

Data for December 26, 2010 through January 28, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
NJ	WESTFIELD 1.0 NE	CoCoRaHS	70.1
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	61.5
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	60.2
CT	DANBURY	COOP	59.9
CT	MILFORD 2.9 ESE	CoCoRaHS	59.1
CT	BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE	CoCoRaHS	59.0
CT	PORTLAND 0.9 S	CoCoRaHS	59.0
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	57.3
NJ	TENAFLY 1.3 W	CoCoRaHS	57.0
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	56.0

 

Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	61.5	2011-01-27	0
2	53.6	2011-01-26	0
3	48.7	1978-02-14	0
4	45.7	1978-02-18	0
5	45.5	1961-02-16	0
6	45.2	1978-02-13	0
7	45.0	1978-02-15	0
8	44.9	1978-02-17	0
9	44.8	1961-02-15	0
10	44.6	1961-02-17	0
11	44.2	1978-02-10	0
12	43.9	1978-02-12	0
13	43.8	2011-01-28	0
14	43.5	1948-01-24	0
15	43.1	1978-02-06	0
16	42.7	1996-01-15	0

I guess there's still a chance we could beat the 1995-96 records one day. Both were la ninas after el ninos and thats what we need-- both for super hot summers and super snowy winters.

 

 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

13/14 was on track to beat 95/96 but that dam tpv parked itself over Maine in March. Kept us cold and dry 

2010-2011 was on track to beat 95/96 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

2010-2011 was on track to beat 95/96 

13/14 had 57.4 going into end of February/march. The pattern ended up being too suppressive going forward. 
 

2011 once the blocking broke down you knew it was over 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

13/14 had 57.4 going into end of February/march. The pattern ended up being too suppressive going forward. 
 

2011 once the blocking broke down you knew it was over 

Yes but we had close to 60 inches by early February 

[donsutherland1]

43 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I think that storm broke the algorithm. 8 day storm? Pretty generous 4" coverage on the southern periphery. Getting the NYC to Trenton corridor in that areal coverage also probably helps the score. I guess technically a T is < 4"

This is an early report. I suspect it will be revised lower later this year.

[snowman19]

13/14 had 57.4 going into end of February/march. The pattern ended up being too suppressive going forward. 
 
2011 once the blocking broke down you knew it was over 

I remember January of 2011 when JB pissed the weenies off because he forecasted that all the blocking was going to break down completely by February and not come back and winter was over. Boy did he get hate for that. That was probably the only time in his entire life that he didn’t forecast cold and snow and he turned out to be right. He was one of only a couple who called that correctly. Everyone else kept saying the blocking was coming back in February and March


.

[nycwinter]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Jan 2016 was stronger than either and should have been the third Cat 5 blizzard but the NESIS people didn't properly account for the high totals around here.

 

more snow for nyc  but not stronger then the 2010 blizzard which had a lower pressure...

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I remember January of 2011 when JB pissed the weenies off because he forecasted that all the blocking was going to break down completely by February and not come back and winter was over. Boy did he get hate for that. That was probably the only time in his entire life that he didn’t forecast cold and snow and he turned out to be right. He was one of only a couple who called that correctly. Everyone else kept saying the blocking was coming back in February and March


.

Great to have you back my man!!!! Hope all is well 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here’s the list.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis

I always hated their method for creating these. For instance, SW CT had 27 for the blizzard of 96 yet they have us at 10 to 20. 

I actually saved the newspaper from it!

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I always hated their method for creating these. For instance, SW CT had 27 for the blizzard of 96 yet they have us at 10 to 20. 

I actually saved the newspaper from it!

The smoothing can result in large differences between what fell at a specific location and the average figure for a geographic area.

[EastonSN+]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Jan 2016 was stronger than either and should have been the third Cat 5 blizzard but the NESIS people didn't properly account for the high totals around here.

 

I think they weigh area coverage much higher than top amount of snow. 

1993 and 1996 were extremely vast in area affected.

2016 was definitely right up there just a little less.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Great to have you back my man!!!! Hope all is well 

Brothers ?