January 2023

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So you are canceling winter ? 

Yes. I did that after Christmas….have you gotten an inch of snow yet? 

[North and West]

In a perverse way, almost rooting for the 0 inch winter in CPK!p
 
Can you imagine the hysterics on twitter? 
 
You know its coming shortly either way…
Anyone else with me on this?

You know, why not? Twitter is already a dumpster fire of people who like pontificate, so why not add to the pyre.


.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Big  factors in human life expectancy  are improvements in infant and child mortality.  The wealthy even in antiquity could live to very old ages. Also, life expectancy is declining in the USA. 

Yep this is true.  Best life expectancy is in the usual nations that rank highest on every metric-- the Scandanavian nations.  Iceland leads the pack I believe.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

This is just one of those winters. I haven't needed a real jacket since the brief ice box and have been walking outside in the mornings with summer weight hiking pants and and a fleece jacket. Haven't even needed a hat or gloves.

I have to tell you i'm seeing some of the most unusual birds this "winter"

Everything from parrots to geese (that haven't migrated yet or came back north) and spring songbirds.

I heard it snowed in Boston today, what's up with that?

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It lost the 50-50 low. Rain to Montreal


.

awesome lol misery loves company

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Big  factors in human life expectancy  are improvements in infant and child mortality.  The wealthy even in antiquity could live to very old ages. Also, life expectancy is declining in the USA. 

remember Nestor from ancient Greek mythology?

it's estimated old king Nestor lived to 90 or 100? He even survived the Trojan war lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Honestly, the earth can’t really sustain the amount of people has on it.

 

we are reaching the tipping point of population exceeding natural resources to sustain it.

 

Declining life expectancy is a natural solution to a natural problem.

 

The Earth will adjust itself. It has done it many times already. If not, I would be looking at stegosauruses as I crawl down the Deegan emitting CO2 with my Jeep.

 

If you want more concrete factors specifically for the US starting to die earlier: whites in poor communities are being inundated with fentanyl and opioids… and it is killing them. That has been bringing down the life expectancy of the US for a while now.

I mean it's also pollution and other factors but this is in general true.  You cannot have an infinite population on a finite surface-- this is why the rich are looking into going to space.

Fertility is also going down (not a bad thing at all.)

We exceeded the tipping point in 1970.  Right now we use the amount of resources that would need 5 earths to be regenerated every year.

Do we have 5 earths to draw these resources from? No....so we use up what was accumulated millions of years ago.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We need at least some access to non-Pacific garbage air. If we had a low rapidly deepening SE of us it could do it, as the crashing heights could make it cold enough to snow everywhere. But this 200-hr storm even if it does go SE of us, cuts off the low so soon that it just becomes engulfed in maritime air around it. Or it could go the way of the rest of the Nina crap so far this winter and cut to the lakes. Either way isn't good for most of us. Maybe the forever cut off low SE of us could be okay for NW areas. 

Only good thing is the California drought is finally coming to an end and no more wild fires recently.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

This is as ugly as it gets for winter weather lovers. On January 6th we haven't even had a half inch of snow and the rest of January looks terrible. Most likely a rainstorm the end of next week and another blowtorch pattern after that. Sad, but we should do our best to enjoy the warm weather by doing more stuff outdoors. 

It's the anniversary of the January 1996 blizzard!

I think people should remember that....

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Baltimore Washington area but this is an article clip from the Blizzard of 1983

"After the storm, warmer weather moved into the area and the high temperature reached 52 degrees in Washington on February 15. For the next seven days, the high temperature was in the 50s or low 60s every day. The snow melted quickly and ten days after the storm, the only reminder that Washington had experienced a historic blizzard was the monstrous snow piles remaining in area parking lots."

Those of us who experienced this will remember this storm forever, it was the only HECS between 1978 and 1996

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, weathermedic said:

Just had some sleet mixed in here with the rain at work in southwestern Nassau County just east of JFK airport.

Oh that was sleet? The sun came out right after that.

I see it's snowing in Boston lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Honestly, the earth can’t really sustain the amount of people has on it.

 

we are reaching the tipping point of population exceeding natural resources to sustain it.

 

Declining life expectancy is a natural solution to a natural problem.

 

The Earth will adjust itself. It has done it many times already. If not, I would be looking at stegosauruses as I crawl down the Deegan emitting CO2 with my Jeep.

 

If you want more concrete factors specifically for the US starting to die earlier: whites in poor communities are being inundated with fentanyl and opioids… and it is killing them. That has been bringing down the life expectancy of the US for a while now.

https://www.overshootday.org/

It's called Earth Overshoot Day-- we passed the tipping point in 1970

 

This year, Earth Overshoot Day fell on July 28

Earth Overshoot Day marks the date when humanity has used all the biological resources that Earth regenerates during the entire year.

 

[MANDA]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's the anniversary of the January 1996 blizzard!

I think people should remember that....

 

Just preparing a post about that with some old DIFAX maps.

[MANDA]

Might not be exactly the forum to post this but since there is not much else going on I'll go for it.

Where were you on this night 27 years ago?  Time has flown but that storm ranks up there as one of my top 5 favorite snowstorms for many reasons.  Not the least of which is that I got to forecast for it and it was the experience of a lifetime.  Was working the 5am to noon shift at Ion Weather that weekend which was then located in the base of the tower at KMMU.  Thanks to Steve P. for giving me one of my first broadcasting opportunities.  Was doing radio for some smaller radio stations from Hagerstown, MD across to Bucks and Montgomery Counties in PA. numerous stations across NJ from ACY area up to Sussex County and across into the Lower Hudson Valley.  Was quite the busy Sunday morning 1/7/96.  Conditions deteriorated over the course of the morning and by the time I left just after noontime you could barely see across the field to the runways.  Visibility was about 1/8 to 1/4 miles with S+ and BS.  The usual 20 minute drive home took 60 minutes and was a white knuckle trip.   Thankfully traffic was very light.  Still have the forecasts that I prepared that morning.  Anyway, I saved some of the DIFAX maps from that Sunday morning.  Weather / maps on the internet was just coming into its own and nowhere near the caliber of maps and models we have today.  The maps are old and I had to shrink them to scan them but if you can zoom in they are just classic.  The 850 low track was text book.  Surface low literally crawled up the coast.  Classic banana high banked to the north.  Check out the VV on the FOUS data with associated QPF. 

 

[North and West]

Might not be exactly the forum to post this but since there is not much else going on I'll go for it.
Where were you on this night 27 years ago?  Time has flown but that storm ranks up there as one of my top 5 favorite snowstorms for many reasons.  Not the least of which I got to forecast for it and it was the experience of a lifetime.  Was working the 5am to noon shift at Ion Weather then located  in the base of the tower at KMMU.  Thanks to Steve P. for giving me one of my first broadcasting opportunities.  Was doing radio for some smaller radio stations from Hagerstown, MD, Bucks and Montgomery Counties in PA. numerous stations across NJ from ACY area up to Sussex County and across into the Lower Hudson Valley.  Was quite the busy Sunday morning 1/7/96.  Conditions deteriorated over the course of the morning and by the time I left just after noontime you could barely see across the field to the runways.  Visibility was about 1/8 to 1/4 miles with S+ and BS.  The usual 20 minute drive home took 60 minutes and was a white knuckle trip.   Thankfully traffic was very light.  Still have the forecasts that I prepared that morning.  Anyway, I saved some of the DIFAX maps from Sunday morning.  Weather on the internet was just coming into its own and nowhere near the caliber of maps and models we have today.  The maps are old and I had to shrink them to scan them but if you can zoom in they are just classic.  The 850 low track was text book.  Surface low literally crawled up the coast.  Classic banana high banked to the north.  Check out the VV on the FOUS data with associated QPF.  Going to have to post each separately as they are large.
 

I grew up next to and still live above MMU. One of my all time favorite weather memories. It’s when my dad told me this was finally a big storm like he remembered after I prayed for snow throughout the late 80s and up until 1994.


.

[MANDA]

some additional maps

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yes. I did that after Christmas….have you gotten an inch of snow yet? 

What a joke

No real forecaster cancels winter that early.  You must be trolling.

No one is canceling winter yet

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Might not be exactly the forum to post this but since there is not much else going on I'll go for it.

Where were you on this night 27 years ago?  Time has flown but that storm ranks up there as one of my top 5 favorite snowstorms for many reasons.  Not the least of which is that I got to forecast for it and it was the experience of a lifetime.  Was working the 5am to noon shift at Ion Weather that weekend which was then located in the base of the tower at KMMU.  Thanks to Steve P. for giving me one of my first broadcasting opportunities.  Was doing radio for some smaller radio stations from Hagerstown, MD across to Bucks and Montgomery Counties in PA. numerous stations across NJ from ACY area up to Sussex County and across into the Lower Hudson Valley.  Was quite the busy Sunday morning 1/7/96.  Conditions deteriorated over the course of the morning and by the time I left just after noontime you could barely see across the field to the runways.  Visibility was about 1/8 to 1/4 miles with S+ and BS.  The usual 20 minute drive home took 60 minutes and was a white knuckle trip.   Thankfully traffic was very light.  Still have the forecasts that I prepared that morning.  Anyway, I saved some of the DIFAX maps from that Sunday morning.  Weather / maps on the internet was just coming into its own and nowhere near the caliber of maps and models we have today.  The maps are old and I had to shrink them to scan them but if you can zoom in they are just classic.  The 850 low track was text book.  Surface low literally crawled up the coast.  Classic banana high banked to the north.  Check out the VV on the FOUS data with associated QPF. 

 

Some photos from the Blizzard of 1996.

https://www.digitalsnowmuseum.org/photo1996x.html

For now, the only snow we have is in our memories or the virtual kind on models.

[Volcanic Winter]

Blizzard of 96 is my first vivid “snow memory,” with the exception of my parents taking me to Vermont when I was four years old for a ski trip (mostly for them, lol). Definitely remember going outside in central Monmouth where I grew up to snow up to basically my chest. 

To be honest, I have nothing but wonderful snow memories throughout my childhood and teenage years. I don’t necessarily remember which storm was which, but I never felt or thought snow was “rare.” It was something we expected to have yearly, and I have memories of piles of snow in our driveway persisting into spring. That seems foreign lately. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

In a perverse way, almost rooting for the 0 inch winter in CPK!p

 

Can you imagine the hysterics on twitter? 

 

You know its coming shortly either way…

Anyone else with me on this?

 

It'll never happen...I still say NYC gets over 20 this winter...the MJO is gonna cause something big and I've been saying that for days...you do not long term torch with an MJO wave that strong through 8-1-2 ever

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

It'll never happen...I still say NYC gets over 20 this winter...the MJO is gonna cause something big and I've been saying that for days...you do not long term torch with an MJO wave that strong through 8-1-2 ever

It happened in Philly though in 1997-98 so if it can happen there it can happen here.  Maybe not this year but eventually (and probably in our lifetimes.)

 

 

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Those of us who experienced this will remember this storm forever, it was the only HECS between 1978 and 1996

 

Well there was March 93, but in most of NJ it mixed leaving us with 10 inches of icy concrete.

[USCG RS]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

It'll never happen...I still say NYC gets over 20 this winter...the MJO is gonna cause something big and I've been saying that for days...you do not long term torch with an MJO wave that strong through 8-1-2 ever

Honestly, a pattern like this -assuming it flips- leads to 1 heck of a storm many times. 

Over abundance of warm ocean waters fuels a storm that eventually throws A LOT of moisture into a cold landmass. I know it is elementary, but some ppl need reminding we are one really strong storm away from making up most -if not all- of our seasonal average....

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some photos from the Blizzard of 1996.

https://www.digitalsnowmuseum.org/photo1996x.html

For now, the only snow we have is in our memories or the virtual kind on models.

That storm by far is what got me into weather. I was just amazed at what was happening from start to finish. 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That storm by far is what got me into weather. I was just amazed at what was happening from start to finish. 

It was an incredible and unforgettable blizzard. I was in the Washington area at the time and it was amazing how it shut down the entire area.

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, USCG RS said:

Honestly, a pattern like this -assuming it flips- leads to 1 heck of a storm many times. 

Over abundance of warm ocean waters fuels a storm that eventually throws A LOT of moisture into a cold landmass. I know it is elementary, but some ppl need reminding we are one really strong storm away from making up most -if not all- of our seasonal average....

remember the winter of 2015-2016 which looked dreadful record warmth until we got the blizzard in just cold enough temps for a historic storm in jan nyc..

[nycwinter]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It was an incredible and unforgettable blizzard. I was in the Washington area at the time and it was amazing how it shut down the entire area.

i liked the blizzard of 2010 better more wind in that storm then 1996 a real blizzard

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i liked the blizzard of 2010 better more wind in that storm then 1996 a real blizzard

That was another awesome blizzard. That the models suddenly trended from an offshore solution to a blockbuster storm made it even more memorable.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, USCG RS said:

Honestly, a pattern like this -assuming it flips- leads to 1 heck of a storm many times. 

Over abundance of warm ocean waters fuels a storm that eventually throws A LOT of moisture into a cold landmass. I know it is elementary, but some ppl need reminding we are one really strong storm away from making up most -if not all- of our seasonal average....

The problem is the lack of even an average cold airmass.

Aside from the arctic shot in late December every other "cold" airmass has been at least 5 degrees above normal.

 

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

remember the winter of 2015-2016 which looked dreadful record warmth until we got the blizzard in just cold enough temps for a historic storm in jan nyc..

that's why we need a very strong el nino