snowman19 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 And euro has a massive rainstormIt lost the 50-50 low. Rain to Montreal . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Will we drop below 25 this month? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 EURO = Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Persistence is a forecasting tool. I'm quite sure the evolution of things will not be exactly as EURO depicts. Entire week away and there will be changes. Not saying for the better necessarily. EURO as currently modeled certainly meets the definition of persistence. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Will we drop below 25 this month?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 It lost the 50-50 low. Rain to Montreal .The EPS took a fairly sizable jump to the west. With a +NAO you need a strong 50-50 low or it’s going to cut. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The EPS took a fairly sizable jump to the west. With a +NAO you need a strong 50-50 low or it’s going to cut . I knew it wouldn't be long before you showed up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The EPS took a fairly sizable jump to the west. With a +NAO you need a strong 50-50 low or it’s going to cut . Dude we know Now go back to hibernation 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Huge torch signal still there after the rainstorm next weekend. This is going to make a run at warmest January ever 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Huge torch signal still there after the rainstorm next weekend. This is going to make a run at warmest January ever I would say its a lock. you need to somehow negate the extremes here, and I just don’t see any extended period of even normal weather….forget BN. What a very sad state of affairs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: You can't broadbrush it like that though, only 3 states are near 80, and there are large pockets of areas (specifically urbanized areas) where it's closer to 60 (much of it because of air pollution-- the number one shortener of life on the planet-- which leads to heart disease, lung disease, asthma, etc.) This is exactly why we're doing the right thing when we ban diesel trucks and drilling near urbanized areas. Big factors in human life expectancy are improvements in infant and child mortality. The wealthy even in antiquity could live to very old ages. Also, life expectancy is declining in the USA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 24 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Huge torch signal still there after the rainstorm next weekend. This is going to make a run at warmest January ever This is just one of those winters. I haven't needed a real jacket since the brief ice box and have been walking outside in the mornings with summer weight hiking pants and and a fleece jacket. Haven't even needed a hat or gloves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 This is as ugly as it gets for winter weather lovers. On January 6th we haven't even had a half inch of snow and the rest of January looks terrible. Most likely a rainstorm the end of next week and another blowtorch pattern after that. Sad, but we should do our best to enjoy the warm weather by doing more stuff outdoors. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Big factors in human life expectancy are improvements in infant and child mortality. The wealthy even in antiquity could live to very old ages. Also, life expectancy is declining in the USA. Honestly, the earth can’t really sustain the amount of people has on it. we are reaching the tipping point of population exceeding natural resources to sustain it. Declining life expectancy is a natural solution to a natural problem. The Earth will adjust itself. It has done it many times already. If not, I would be looking at stegosauruses as I crawl down the Deegan emitting CO2 with my Jeep. If you want more concrete factors specifically for the US starting to die earlier: whites in poor communities are being inundated with fentanyl and opioids… and it is killing them. That has been bringing down the life expectancy of the US for a while now. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 The once moderate potential for measurable snow during the January 13-15 period has continued to decline on the EPS ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Honestly, the earth can’t really sustain the amount of people has on it. we are reaching the tipping point of population exceeding natural resources to sustain it. Declining life expectancy is a natural solution to a natural problem. The Earth will adjust itself. It has done it many times already. If not, I would be looking at stegosauruses as I crawl down the Deegan emitting CO2 with my Jeep. If you want more concrete factors specifically for the US starting to die earlier: whites in poor communities are being inundated with fentanyl and opioids… and it is killing them. That has been bringing down the life expectancy of the US for a while now.Reading these boards might be doing it to them as well.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, North and West said: Reading these boards might be doing it to them as well. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: Need a sub 1000 low tracking to the southeast and ideally a high in place (although not absolutely essential in January). We need at least some access to non-Pacific garbage air. If we had a low rapidly deepening SE of us it could do it, as the crashing heights could make it cold enough to snow everywhere. But this 200-hr storm even if it does go SE of us, cuts off the low so soon that it just becomes engulfed in maritime air around it. Or it could go the way of the rest of the Nina crap so far this winter and cut to the lakes. Either way isn't good for most of us. Maybe the forever cut off low SE of us could be okay for NW areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 15 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: This is as ugly as it gets for winter weather lovers. On January 6th we haven't even had a half inch of snow and the rest of January looks terrible. Most likely a rainstorm the end of next week and another blowtorch pattern after that. Sad, but we should do our best to enjoy the warm weather by doing more stuff outdoors. Probably looking into February now for anything substantial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Probably looking into February 2024 now for anything substantial FIXED 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just had some very small hail (maybe graupel). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 43 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We need at least some access to non-Pacific garbage air. If we had a low rapidly deepening SE of us it could do it, as the crashing heights could make it cold enough to snow everywhere. But this 200-hr storm even if it does go SE of us, cuts off the low so soon that it just becomes engulfed in maritime air around it. Or it could go the way of the rest of the Nina crap so far this winter and cut to the lakes. Either way isn't good for most of us. Maybe the forever cut off low SE of us could be okay for NW areas. Exactly, 40-70 means nothing when there isn’t a cold air source. Even at peak climo Along the coast we are at the whims of the ascendent airmass. That’s meteo 101. If you can shave 5-10f off your normals at peak climo (used to be all of us) you can get by. But unfortunately the highest point on the coastal plain doesn’t exceed 1,000’ until Cadillac mountain in maine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 45 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Probably looking into February now for anything substantial Watch March be wintry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Oh look it’s raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Watch March be wintry It won’t be hard this year for march to feel more wintry then January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It won’t be hard this year for march to feel more wintry then January I’d take a hard frost(TWSS) at this point. The media would be in hysterics. Once in a lifetime frost! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 If one wants to be optimistic and chase a carrot, all the ensembles change the pac for the better around the 20th. I have no rooting interest but for those holding out hope to salvage something 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: If one wants to be optimistic and chase a carrot, all the ensembles change the pac for the better around the 20th. I have no rooting interest but for those holding out hope to salvage something So you are canceling winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 The second warmest opening week of January is nearing an end with a slow cooling trend underway. That cooling trend will continue through the weekend. The second week of January will be cooler, but a cold outcome is unlikely. Some guidance suggests that there could be a sharper but brief cold shot just before mid-month. However, once moderate support for snowfall during the January 13-15 period has been declining. Just 18% of 12z EPS members now show 1" or more snow for New York City. Prior to then, there is a low probability of measurable snowfall Sunday night into Monday. 2022 became the 14th year during which New York City received no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions. The SOI was +17.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.814 today. On January 4 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.099 (RMM). The January 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.353 (RMM). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 In a perverse way, almost rooting for the 0 inch winter in CPK!p Can you imagine the hysterics on twitter? You know its coming shortly either way… Anyone else with me on this? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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