January 2023

[North and West]

Skewed by higher infant/childhood mortality. 

…which isn’t a bad thing.


.

[SnoSki14]

54 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

That blue trendline makes it seem like a gradual increase from 1895 to 2022.  But there's another way to view that chart.  If you just look from 1895-1990ish, you could say that things were essentially flat.  And then if you look from 1990-present you could say that things are flat (at a much higher level than the 1895-1990 period).  So just looking at this one set of data, it would be reasonable to hypothesize that something drastic may have changed in 1990 that was more influential in global warming (or at least...Central Park warming) than a lot of the ongoing changes that took place across a longer time period.

That said, I'm fully aware that there is tons of other relevant data that may paint a very different picture.

It's just a lag really.

Takes a while to warm the oceans, which is why even if we had net zero emissions tomorrow things would continue warming for decades. 

Usually there's several years of warming to hit a new baseline and then it levels off for a bit or may even go down in lieu of other factors like in the 70s. 

Then the process repeats. Note that the leveling off period is what climate skeptics always mention. They talked about it in the 70s and 00s. 

The skeptics will also return if/when we do get net zero emissions and the planet continues warming. They refuse to acknowledge the lag. 

[Allsnow]

It just wants to snow at msp this winter 

 

 

[JustinRP37]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's just a lag really.

Takes a while to warm the oceans, which is why even if we had net zero emissions tomorrow things would continue warming for decades. 

Usually there's several years of warming to hit a new baseline and then it levels off for a bit or may even go down in lieu of other factors like in the 70s. 

Then the process repeats. Note that the leveling off period is what climate skeptics always mention. They talked about it in the 70s and 00s. 

The skeptics will also return if/when we do get net zero emissions and the planet continues warming. They refuse to acknowledge the lag. 

Exactly this! The oceans take up a ton of the carbon we put in the atmosphere. That is also why the pH of the ocean has steadily decreased since the Industrial Revolution, but also why warming was not seen early on. It is basically the same mechanism as a soda stream. You increase the CO2 above the water and it goes into the water forming our favorite carbonated beverages. I have attached an image I use in my climate lecture for my non-major students. You can see that natural forcings enough (the long-term forcings caused by our orbit and natural solar cycles) to attribute for our current warming, but the effects with natural + anthropogenic match up pretty darn well. Plus I have never understood how people can ignore the laws of thermodynamics when it comes to internal combustion. Energy can neither be created nor destroyed, yet some want to believe that billions of engines and furnaces all over the world burning fuel can't change the 'energy' in our system, which is earth's atmosphere. It really is mind boggling. 

[MJO812]

Gfs looking better so far with the big storm 

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

We might need a 82-83 or 97-98 type of Nino to reset the Pacific. 02-03 was still only moderate. And then take a break from Nina's, if possible, thereafter. But I agree those 50's weak Nino's were terrible. 

I'll take 02-03 any day. Solid winter all around and was much needed after that diabolical 01-02. We got 60" that winter, well above average. 

02-03 was like the Derek Jeter of winters lol, very overlooked in terms of numbers but they really added up, and it had everything you could ever want, early season snow, late season snow (April daytime heavy snow!) and a widespread HECS to boot (very rare, the only 3 I remember are Feb 1983, Jan 1996 and PD2), and it set the stage for four 'championship' winters in a row (although the last one was rather mediocre-- lol-- but we still got to 40" and had a HECS in the middle of it.)

The winters before 02-03 were mostly ugly....00-01 was okay but even that had a historic bust at the end.

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs looking better so far with the big storm 

Big rainstorm. 50/50 gets out of the way and east of NE ridging becomes too strong again. Same ole crap

It actually cuts off too so that would be a flooding rainstorm and coastal nightmare. Jesus christ that's like 6"+ of rain and widespread hurricane gusts well inland 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Exactly this! The oceans take up a ton of the carbon we put in the atmosphere. That is also why the pH of the ocean has steadily decreased since the Industrial Revolution, but also why warming was not seen early on. It is basically the same mechanism as a soda stream. You increase the CO2 above the water and it goes into the water forming our favorite carbonated beverages. I have attached an image I use in my climate lecture for my non-major students. You can see that natural forcings enough (the long-term forcings caused by our orbit and natural solar cycles) to attribute for our current warming, but the effects with natural + anthropogenic match up pretty darn well. Plus I have never understood how people can ignore the laws of thermodynamics when it comes to internal combustion. Energy can neither be created nor destroyed, yet some want to believe that billions of engines and furnaces all over the world burning fuel can't change the 'energy' in our system, which is earth's atmosphere. It really is mind boggling. 

That's why people talk about climate engineering.

We engineer in every other field of science and climate is not going to be an exception-- there's lots of money being poured into this and the billionaires are behind it, so that's a sure way of knowing it's going to happen.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Big rainstorm. 50/50 gets out of the way and east of NE ridging becomes too strong again. Same ole crap

It actually cuts off too so that would be a flooding rainstorm and coastal nightmare 

Dude it's an improvement

A week out

Good signal 

[EastonSN+]

If this was even close would have half the forum elated and half pretty miffed

[EastonSN+]

Same 50% for GFS

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, FPizz said:

It has.  Also, if you like living, the average human life expectancy before the industrial revolution was around 30.  Now it is close to 80.  This is a hockey stick graph that is nice to see.

You can't broadbrush it like that though, only 3 states are near 80, and there are large pockets of areas (specifically urbanized areas) where it's closer to 60 (much of it because of air pollution-- the number one shortener of life on the planet-- which leads to heart disease, lung disease, asthma, etc.)

This is exactly why we're doing the right thing when we ban diesel trucks and drilling near urbanized areas.

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Same 50% for GFS

A slow mover. We’ll see how things unfold.  
 

[winterwx21]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Dude it's an improvement

A week out

Good signal 

The problem with models like GFS and CMC showing a mix storm right now (possibly a front end dump) is these things tend to trend NW and warmer as they get closer. We've seen it with our other storms this season, so I'm not very optimistic about getting a front end dump storm out of this. I think it'll likely trend warmer as it gets closer, but you never know for sure so we'll keep an eye on it. If we get lucky it would be a true thread the needle event. It's just a very brief shot of colder air late week, and then we warm up big-time the following week. So we'd really have to have great luck in a very brief window. Seems pretty unlikely with how things have been going this winter. 

[milleand]

Bernie Rayno talking about the 'Norm Mcdonald Rule' giving us a chance at snow week. "Works 9 out of 10 times."-BR 

We shall see, and at least something to certainly keep an eye on. 

[snowman19]

The problem with models like GFS and CMC showing a mix storm right now (possibly a front end dump) is these things tend to trend NW and warmer as they get closer. We've seen it with our other storms this season, so I'm not very optimistic about getting a front end dump storm out of this. I think it'll likely trend warmer as it gets closer, but you never know for sure so we'll keep an eye on it. If we get lucky it would be a true thread the needle event. It's just a very brief shot of colder air late week, and then we warm up big-time the following week. So we'd really have to have great luck in a very brief window. Seems pretty unlikely with how things have been going this winter. 

When the GFS isn’t suppressed at this range, it’s normally a bad sign. Typically it’s way south and east then trends towards the other models in our big snowstorms. Guess we’ll see


.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs looking better so far with the big storm 

We need a cold air source. If the low just cuts off and spins forever, it’ll just drag in maritime air. The continent is already flooded with Pacific air. Big low to our south doesn’t always mean snow. 

[Winterweatherlover]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

When the GFS isn’t suppressed at this range, it’s normally a bad sign. Typically it’s way south and east then trends towards the other models in our big snowstorms. Guess we’ll see


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The 12Z CMC is further SE than the 12z GFS.

[Franklin0529]

The gefs look great 

[EastonSN+]

I am still sticking to No Forky No storm (now I have Marley in my head).

[Winterweatherlover]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We need a cold air source. If the low just cuts off and spins forever, it’ll just drag in maritime air. The continent is already flooded with Pacific air. Big low to our south doesn’t always mean snow. 

Its a long shot for sure especially I95 corridor and points southeast. 

[Volcanic Winter]

It’s of course safer to have minimal to zero expectations pretty much uniformly around the forum right now, but there’s next to zero chance IMHO the models have this system fixed correctly yet. Reading all forums and all points of view, this is definitely a “keep the caution flags up but wait” type deal for a few more days at least. 

[CIK62]

Looks like an Endless Temperature Loop.      How do you get a snowstorm when the T figures to spend just a few hours out of the next 384 below freezing?

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Looks like an Endless Temperature Loop.      How do you get a snowstorm when the T figures to spend just a few hours out of the next 384 below freezing?

Need a sub 1000 low tracking to the southeast and ideally a high in place (although not absolutely essential in January).   

[CIK62]

Discuss this better.       While the Wind Gust forecasts have not done well.............:      Seems stronger than days ago.

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Discuss this better.       While the Wind Gust forecasts have not done well.............:      Seems stronger than days ago.

It's a Janucane 

[EastonSN+]

Baltimore Washington area but this is an article clip from the Blizzard of 1983

"After the storm, warmer weather moved into the area and the high temperature reached 52 degrees in Washington on February 15. For the next seven days, the high temperature was in the 50s or low 60s every day. The snow melted quickly and ten days after the storm, the only reminder that Washington had experienced a historic blizzard was the monstrous snow piles remaining in area parking lots."

[weathermedic]

Just had some sleet mixed in here with the rain at work in southwestern Nassau County just east of JFK airport.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Its a long shot for sure especially I95 corridor and points southeast. 

And euro has a massive rainstorm

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

And euro has a massive rainstorm

Super warm. Rain all the way up into Canada.