January 2023

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Seeing some connections between this and 2001-02.  There was a big Carolina snowstorm later in January that year.

 

Some low snowfall winters here have had big Southeast or Lower Mid-Atlantic snowstorms. Examples include 1972-73, 1979-80, and 2001-02 (as you referenced above).

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That's in celsius correct?

 

Lee Goldberg was talking about the Pacific overwhelming the pattern after the 17th-- so whatever snow we get it had better happen between the 13th-15th.

 

Yes, that’s Celsius.

[Yanksfan]

My hope is by seasons end we have a salvageable winter but my confidence is slowly waning. This trifecta LaNina crap is killing us. We need a complete reshuffle of the pattern. Thank God the models are hinting at a weak ElNino next year.

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some low snowfall winters here have had big Southeast or Lower Mid-Atlantic snowstorms. Examples include 1972-73, 1979-80, and 2001-02 (as you referenced above).

More Middle Atlantic of course, but the Delmarva, including Ocean City Maryland, had a historic year for snowfall last year.

Odd how that works (mild a lack of snow for us results in snow to out south).

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time that NYC averaged over 50° for the first 5 days of January. The departure was +17.5 even against the warmer 1991-2020 climate normals. So a record warm start to Janaury.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 5	Missing Count
1	2023-01-05	52.3	0
2	1950-01-05	49.7	0
3	2007-01-05	49.6	0
4	2000-01-05	48.4	0
5	2005-01-05	47.2	0

And yet people still think we aren't warming. Pathetic 

[EastonSN+]

If one is a fan of warm winters, the AO looks like it's going neutral to positive, PNA going negative and the MJO may be heading out of the colder phases past mid month. 

Unlike this warm spell which has been cloudy and rainy more often than not, the above setup could be a bit dryer, warmer.

We shall see.

As others alluded to, blocking tends to return when presenting itself I'm December. Therefore, snow lovers may still have a window later on. Perhaps this February will be like Feb 2021, or this March like 2018 or 2019, even January of last year. In the meantime, enjoy the energy savings and outdoor activities!

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

And yet people still think we aren't warming. Pathetic 

I have a hard time believing there are people who do not actually believe we are warming.

I think the argument these days is 100% human influence, 100% cyclical or (what I believe) a blend of the two.

I think it's a fact that greenhouse gasses, urban development etc warms our atmosphere.

I think it's a fact that the planet goes through multi century cycles, and we are still emerging from the cold one that ended in the mid 1800s.

The combination of the two is warming us at a historic clip.

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If one is a fan of warm winters, the AO looks like it's going neutral to positive, PNA going negative and the MJO may be heading out of the colder phases past mid month. 

Unlike this warm spell which has been cloudy and rainy more often than not, the above setup could be a bit dryer, warmer.

We shall see.

As others alluded to, blocking tends to return when presenting itself I'm December. Therefore, snow lovers may still have a window later on. Perhaps this February will be like Feb 2021, or this March like 2018 or 2019, even January of last year. In the meantime, enjoy the energy savings and outdoor activities!

Ensembles and weeklies look horrendous after mid Jan. 2001-2002, 19/20 & 11/12 type warmth. 

Top 3-5 warmest Jan looking likely 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

And yet people still think we aren't warming. Pathetic 

Years and winters have been warming in the New York City area. Winter trends are below:

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ensembles and weeklies look horrendous after mid Jan. 2001-2002, 19/20 & 11/12 type warmth. 

Yeah, we seem to be following the 89/90 playbook with missing a golden opportunity (pattern) in December followed by warmth

That being said, 89/90 is ahead of us snow wise.

The wild card, none of the mentioned winters had severe blocking in December and as others have said is likely to return, so there can be a window at some point.

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ensembles and weeklies look horrendous after mid Jan. 2001-2002, 19/20 & 11/12 type warmth. 

Top 3-5 warmest Jan looking likely 

Mjo is still in 7

 

That's why it's warm and the storm might end up being warm. The lag should be a week so give or take the last week of January 

 

Judah Cohen still likes the strat warming which would help us in February. 

[Dark Star]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I have a hard time believing there are people who do not actually believe we are warming.

I think the argument these days is 100% human influence, 100% cyclical or (what I believe) a blend of the two.

I think it's a fact that greenhouse gasses, urban development etc warms our atmosphere.

I think it's a fact that the planet goes through multi century cycles, and we are still emerging from the cold one that ended in the mid 1800s.

The combination of the two is warming us at a historic clip.

I may be one of the few conservatives that "think" the warming is mostly attributed to greenhouse gas increases due to the industrial revolution. Of course this is just my opinion, since it seems we can't even project the general circulation 5 days out...

[North and West]

I may be one of the few conservatives that "think" the warming is mostly attributed to greenhouse gas increases due to the industrial revolution. Of course this is just my opinion, since it seems we can't even project the general circulation 5 days out...

I think people like to either ignore reality (if you add more of certain ingredients into the recipe, the taste will change, often not for the better; it’s just math) or like to talk down to others (how can you be so stupid?) which then makes other people dig in their heels.

Imagine talking to your wife or girlfriend like that; they’re not going to stop and say, you know what, you’re right. I’m an idiot and you know best.

I think it’s best to just show cause and effect, and how someone who may not agree with you is being ill-effected by the impacts of increased greenhouse gases.

My two


.

[SnoSki14]

50 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I may be one of the few conservatives that "think" the warming is mostly attributed to greenhouse gas increases due to the industrial revolution. Of course this is just my opinion, since it seems we can't even project the general circulation 5 days out...

The data checks out. That's when temps started rising, I don't think it's a coincidence. 

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Years and winters have been warming in the New York City area. Winter trends are below:

 

 

 

I think if we set futility records this year like zero snowfall in NYC then that would be a pretty big wake-up call. 

[CentralNJSnowman]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Years and winters have been warming in the New York City area. Winter trends are below:

 

 

 

That blue trendline makes it seem like a gradual increase from 1895 to 2022.  But there's another way to view that chart.  If you just look from 1895-1990ish, you could say that things were essentially flat.  And then if you look from 1990-present you could say that things are flat (at a much higher level than the 1895-1990 period).  So just looking at this one set of data, it would be reasonable to hypothesize that something drastic may have changed in 1990 that was more influential in global warming (or at least...Central Park warming) than a lot of the ongoing changes that took place across a longer time period.

That said, I'm fully aware that there is tons of other relevant data that may paint a very different picture.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

My hope is by seasons end we have a salvageable winter but my confidence is slowly waning. This trifecta LaNina crap is killing us. We need a complete reshuffle of the pattern. Thank God the models are hinting at a weak ElNino next year.

They are?  I'm not sure how accurate these models are now but it could be the climate has shifted enough to create a semipermanent la nina-- I guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah, we seem to be following the 89/90 playbook with missing a golden opportunity (pattern) in December followed by warmth

That being said, 89/90 is ahead of us snow wise.

The wild card, none of the mentioned winters had severe blocking in December and as others have said is likely to return, so there can be a window at some point.

Probably looking at Feb or Mar at this point....we continue to kick the can down the road-at one point back half of Jan looked good now that is gone.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The data checks out. That's when temps started rising, I don't think it's a coincidence. 

I think if we set futility records this year like zero snowfall in NYC then that would be a pretty big wake-up call. 

No it wouldn't-- they'd just point to Buffalo or some other place that had snow.

They are just like that....

 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, North and West said:

I think people like to either ignore reality (if you add more of certain ingredients into the recipe, the taste will change, often not for the better; it’s just math) or like to talk down to others (how can you be so stupid?) which then makes other people dig in their heels.

Imagine talking to your wife or girlfriend like that; they’re not going to stop and say, you know what, you’re right. I’m an idiot and you know best.

I think it’s best to just show cause and effect, and how someone who may not agree with you is being ill-effected by the impacts of increased greenhouse gases.

My two


.

the health impact and air pollution should be front and center-- air pollution lowers life expectancy by 2 years on average across the planet and up to 10 years in urbanized areas.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah, we seem to be following the 89/90 playbook with missing a golden opportunity (pattern) in December followed by warmth

That being said, 89/90 is ahead of us snow wise.

The wild card, none of the mentioned winters had severe blocking in December and as others have said is likely to return, so there can be a window at some point.

I've been talking about 89-90 for weeks lol, we just missed the November snowstorm lol

But if you research 89-90 there was actually a Suffolk County snowfall in February....much less than February 2013 of course, but it was there.  So both 1989-90 and 2012-13 had November and February snow and not much else.

[North and West]

the health impact and air pollution should be front and center-- air pollution lowers life expectancy by 2 years on average across the planet and up to 10 years in urbanized areas.
 

I think the air has gotten far cleaner (in the U.S. at least) in the past 50 years.


.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, North and West said:

I think the air has gotten far cleaner (in the U.S. at least) in the past 50 years.


.

For some-- not for urbanized areas though.  West Oakland is still awful with all the diesel trucks (which need to be banned completely), they use AQI meters there to measure the (poor) air quality there.  The life expectancy there is 9 years lower because of air pollution.

Fossil fuel companies rather stealthily build their factories near urbanized areas where minorities live because they know they are less likely to complain.

California did the right thing by banning drilling completely near urbanized areas.

Air pollution and growing up near heavy traffic areas has rather strongly been connected to asthma and also to autism.

 

[LibertyBell]

There's also cancer alley in Louisiana which has an 85x higher risk of cancer because the fossil fuel cartels put their factories near minority housing.  Fortunately they fought back and stopped it, a well known activist there went right to Washington and got the construction of yet another factory stopped.

 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I've been talking about 89-90 for weeks lol, we just missed the November snowstorm lol

But if you research 89-90 there was actually a Suffolk County snowfall in February....much less than February 2013 of course, but it was there.  So both 1989-90 and 2012-13 had November and February snow and not much else.

Plus the December and March ones for 2013.

[Snowstorms]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

They are?  I'm not sure how accurate these models are now but it could be the climate has shifted enough to create a semipermanent la nina-- I guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

Whether it's a Nino or Nina, they haven't been properly coupling with the atmosphere and winter after winter we all get pure garbage. Our average low right now is 12F and we haven't been below freezing in 9 days now. We might need either a strong Nino (which may or may not happen for a few more years), or a couple neutral years to "reset" things. I would think?

Seeing that graph Don posted is intriguing to say the least with both NYC and Toronto warming nearly 6F in the last 120+ years. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Whether it's a Nino or Nina, they haven't been properly coupling with the atmosphere and winter after winter we all get pure garbage. Our average low right now is 12F and we haven't been below freezing in 9 days now. We might need either a strong Nino (which may or may not happen for a few more years), or a couple neutral years to "reset" things. I would think?

Seeing that graph Don posted is intriguing to say the least with both NYC and Toronto warming nearly 6F in the last 120+ years. 

I would LOVE an ultra strong el nino-- I don't think a 'weak' el nino will be enough.  Not to change this pattern.  Some of those weak el ninos we had in the 50s that came after la ninas didn't produce much snow either.

Give me a 1957-58 or 2002-03  or 2009-10 type strong el nino....historically this is what you need to change the pattern, not some wimp of a weak el nino.  Check out the snow seasons prior to those years....I think they were all bad to just about average before those strong el ninos came and gave us snowy winters for a few years.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Plus the December and March ones for 2013.

March was roasting in 1990 but then we somehow got a few inches of snow in April lol.

 

[Snowstorms]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I would LOVE an ultra strong el nino-- I don't think a 'weak' el nino will be enough.  Not to change this pattern.  Some of those weak el ninos we had in the 50s that came after la ninas didn't produce much snow either.

Give me a 1957-58 or 2002-03 type strong el nino....historically this is what you need to change the pattern, not some wimp of a weak el nino

We might need a 82-83 or 97-98 type of Nino to reset the Pacific. 02-03 was still only moderate. And then take a break from Nina's, if possible, thereafter. But I agree those 50's weak Nino's were terrible. 

I'll take 02-03 any day. Solid winter all around and was much needed after that diabolical 01-02. We got 60" that winter, well above average. 

[FPizz]

31 minutes ago, North and West said:

I think the air has gotten far cleaner (in the U.S. at least) in the past 50 years.


.

It has.  Also, if you like living, the average human life expectancy before the industrial revolution was around 30.  Now it is close to 80.  This is a hockey stick graph that is nice to see.

[Volcanic Winter]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

It has.  Also, if you like living, the average human life expectancy before the industrial revolution was around 30.  Now it is close to 80.  This is a hockey stick graph that is nice to see.

Skewed by higher infant/childhood mortality.