LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 11 minutes ago, MANDA said: Combined with the fact the we'll be going towards a more +PNA and MJO in more favorable phases and -AO and -EPO (not huge negatives but negatives) based on this and that it is not just the GFS I'd have to say this is the best CHANCE at SOMETHING so far this season. Just have to see if trends hold. We're quite a ways away and nothing in this time frame has held so far this season so there is reason for caution. At least some of interest. Better than continuous torching. Jan 15-20 is the most favored time for snowfall climatologically too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Wow that's amazing-- did you get something similar in 1998 too? I remember seeing some amazing ice (damage) pictures from up there. You actually don’t have to travel to Canada to get pictures with 2” of ice. I took this on 1/16/78 at my then home in East Northport. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, Tatamy said: You actually don’t have to travel to Canada to get pictures with 2” of ice. I took this on 1/16/78 at my then home in East Northport. wow I've never heard of this event....was it rain in the city and south shore in Nassau county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow I've never heard of this event....was it rain in the city and south shore in Nassau county? This was the first of three events that occurred that week. The third event was the January 20th snowstorm that dumped 12-18” unexpected inches across the area. This 1/15 event changed to freezing rain across much of LI away from the south shore and east end. The north shore was particularly hard hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: The AO is still sharply negative but it's so mild is that because there is no cold air on our side of the globe, Don? Yes. That’s a big part of it. That happened in 2001-02, as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Yawn. Let me know when that says 48hrs not 234 Then take a break until then. This is still a weather forum. If you dont want to discuss it, you dont need to. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Western Europe and area to the south start and finish AN in sympathy with us or we with them. Jan. 18,19 could be +20-30??? here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 Presume everyone Is aware of the small hail reports (mPing) to our southwest in e PA and n MD? Interest there may translate into lots more interest along I84 in CT tomorrow morning. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Pretty good look to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: I'll gladly take the one decent event 2/4/95 snow to rain and call that a night at this point. got cold and stayed for a week after that. that was our whole winter. 10.5 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: wow I've never heard of this event....was it rain in the city and south shore in Nassau county? I think it was ice on the Nassau County south shore. I was a young grade schooler and I still remember the a) astonishment of my parents and all the other adults, and b) how wild everything looked. As I recall, school was in session, unless somehow I'm remembering the following day, though everything definitely was still ice encrusted. It took a lot to close school back then. I see JFK wasn't above 28 that day, and didn't get above freezing until the afternoon of the 17th, which would support the south shore being part of this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 5 hours ago, Tatamy said: You actually don’t have to travel to Canada to get pictures with 2” of ice. I took this on 1/16/78 at my then home in East Northport. 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: wow I've never heard of this event....was it rain in the city and south shore in Nassau county? 1/13/78 ice storm: https://www.northshorewx.com/19780113.html 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 That ice storm was the real deal, I remember it but not well. The big snow a few days later meant more to my young self. Ugly night out there now. 39/39/RN S3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 This is the first time that NYC averaged over 50° for the first 5 days of January. The departure was +17.5 even against the warmer 1991-2020 climate normals. So a record warm start to Janaury. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 5 Missing Count 1 2023-01-05 52.3 0 2 1950-01-05 49.7 0 3 2007-01-05 49.6 0 4 2000-01-05 48.4 0 5 2005-01-05 47.2 0 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Morning thoughts… Light rain will end. Clouds could break during the afternoon. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 47° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 50° A dry weekend lies ahead. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.9°; 15-Year: 40.8° Newark: 30-Year: 40.3°; 15-Year: 41.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.7°; 15-Year: 42.7° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 38degs.(34/43) or +5. Reached 55 here yesterday. Today: Was 49* at Midnight, 44-46 daytime, wind e. to nw., cloudy, showers till 1pm., 39 tomorrow AM. Coldest part of the winter and <32 ducks out of the scene completely from the 17th-21st and beyond? 48*(91%RH) here at 6am. 45* at 7am. 48* at 9am. 50* at Noon. 45* at 7pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I'm so tired of rain Snow gods hate us Who the hell wants rain during the winter since it rains all year ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Records: Highs EWR: 72 (2007) NYC: 72 (2007) LGA: 72 (2007) JFK: 71 (2007) PHL: 73 (2007) Lows: also see records in 1910 NYC: -2 (1896) PHL: 4 (1896) EWR: 6 (2018) JFK: 7 (2018) LGA: 8 (2018) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 6 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: 1/13/78 ice storm: https://www.northshorewx.com/19780113.html Thanks Ed! I love how detailed your accounts are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Records: Highs EWR: 72 (2007) NYC: 72 (2007) LGA: 72 (2007) JFK: 71 (2007) PHL: 73 (2007) Lows: also see records in 1910 NYC: -2 (1896) PHL: 4 (1896) EWR: 6 (2018) JFK: 7 (2018) LGA: 8 (2018) I remember both 2007 and 2018 really well. And in 1996 we had a blizzard on the same day didn't we? Amazing that all the official stations got to 70+ 11 years after that blizzard....and another 11 years after that we were all hitting record lows too. 11 year cycle again lol? 1996....2007....2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm so tired of rain Snow gods hate us Who the hell wants rain during the winter since it rains all year ? We are going to get to February now without any snow…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This is the first time that NYC averaged over 50° for the first 5 days of January. The departure was +17.5 even against the warmer 1991-2020 climate normals. So a record warm start to Janaury. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 5 Missing Count 1 2023-01-05 52.3 0 2 1950-01-05 49.7 0 3 2007-01-05 49.6 0 4 2000-01-05 48.4 0 5 2005-01-05 47.2 0 wow and 2007 heat peaked much higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 7 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said: I think it was ice on the Nassau County south shore. I was a young grade schooler and I still remember the a) astonishment of my parents and all the other adults, and b) how wild everything looked. As I recall, school was in session, unless somehow I'm remembering the following day, though everything definitely was still ice encrusted. It took a lot to close school back then. I see JFK wasn't above 28 that day, and didn't get above freezing until the afternoon of the 17th, which would support the south shore being part of this event. omg I wonder if that was actually our biggest ice event-- bigger than Jan 1994? The wild looking scenery makes everything surreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 10 hours ago, CIK62 said: Western Europe and area to the south start and finish AN in sympathy with us or we with them. Jan. 18,19 could be +20-30??? here. That's in celsius correct? Lee Goldberg was talking about the Pacific overwhelming the pattern after the 17th-- so whatever snow we get it had better happen between the 13th-15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Overnight, not much has changed from my initial thinking concerning the potential January 13-15 snowfall. The overall pattern is not consistent with those that have seen big snowfalls based on the forecast teleconnections. There remains a moderate probability that New York City will see a measurable snowfall. The probability of a large (10" or more) snowfall remains very low. Given the timeframe involved, things can change. Below is recent data from the EPS ensembles for New York City: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 11 hours ago, Tatamy said: This was the first of three events that occurred that week. The third event was the January 20th snowstorm that dumped 12-18” unexpected inches across the area. This 1/15 event changed to freezing rain across much of LI away from the south shore and east end. The north shore was particularly hard hit. Someone said JFK had a high of 28, so I guess my part of SW Nassau also stayed below freezing-- I see that happen a lot, it was also the case in Jan 1994 and the VD 2007 storm....JFK to Oceanside stayed below freezing and when you got further east to Freeport it was above freezing lol. Same kind of pattern in the March 1993 snowstorm-- JFK had 11" (actually more than NYC), Oceanside had 10" and then it dropped off to Massapequa where only 6" fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Overnight, not much has changed from my initial thinking concerning the potential January 13-15 snowfall. The overall pattern is not consistent with those that have seen big snowfalls based on the forecast teleconnections. There remains a moderate probability that New York City will see a measurable snowfall. The probability of a large (10" or more) snowfall remains very low. Given the timeframe involved, things can change. Below is recent data from the EPS ensembles for New York City: Don more of a risk of a cutter or out to sea? I could see a storm that tracks offshore that gives us a few inches (those seem to be rare but do happen from time to time.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. That’s a big part of it. That happened in 2001-02, as well. Seeing some connections between this and 2001-02. There was a big Carolina snowstorm later in January that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We are going to get to February now without any snow…. It's going to get mild again after the 17th but maybe we can get a few inches out of that 13-15 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don more of a risk of a cutter or out to sea? I could see a storm that tracks offshore that gives us a few inches (those seem to be rare but do happen from time to time.) Offshore may be more likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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