January 2023

[hudsonvalley21]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Post the members 

 

[Franklin0529]

5 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

 

Impressive.. long way to go. Best chance of the year so far

[EasternLI]

Euro weeklies, so grain of salt of course, but that's one large weakening trend for the strat PV in one run. Seeing Ural ridging now perhaps. Big jump there. 

Last run 

new run 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Euro weeklies, so grain of salt of course, but that's one large weakening trend for the strat PV in one run. Seeing Ural ridging now perhaps. Big jump there. 

Last run 

new run 

Wow what a change 

[EastonSN+]

37 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

 

If this is a legit threat, Forky will opine soon. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Honestly for us in the northeast? Iceland. 5 hour flight from EWR, October to end of March. Best time IMO is late October through November. Long nights and generally not “full” winter there if you’re not especially interested in dealing with harsh snow and windstorms (the latter being what will actually shut the roads down), though Iceland can get severe squalls and whatnot as early as September even. Weather there is generally luck of the draw. 

But they’re always in the game to see an aurora almost nightly, barring cloud cover. On my two week trip end of Oct into November we saw the lights 8 nights total, but we also were rather lucky this trip. Over four trips there, the worst we did was three nights over a ten day trip. Some people go and never see them, though that seems especially unlucky or you’re not trying “correctly.” Sometimes have to stay outside for a few hours to maximize chances without cutting away and “checking back” because that’s often how you miss them. Sometimes they’ll flare up for 10-15 minutes and then disappear for the rest of the night. 
 

Plainly visible right in Reykjavik this evening. 

Wow that's gorgeous you can see Orion's belt there too (the three stars in a row.)  I wonder what the Orion Nebula would look like through the Northern Lights!

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

There's been a couple good ones in the last 25 years which is literally every winter in your following post, except 09-10, but we had our version of that 2 years prior (07-08). Also, 04-05 was pretty good too. 

I think the bigger story is the rising winter temps. We've warmed over 3F in the last 40 years lol. And in recent years 60% of the snow we've gotten was with marginal temps. A degree higher and it would've been rain. So unless this is some cycle, at the rate we're all going, it may only get worse. 

So yeah it's pretty bad. 

That's pretty reflective of what's been going on here too.  I remember reading comments that the snow has been wetter up there too, with marginal temps, and that is one of the reason for the extensive power outages.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Snowfall Futility Update for New York City:

Wow so shocking to see winters from the 1800s in this list, Don.

Whats that winter that begins at the bottom and takes a straight hike up to the top at the end lol.  I'll take that winter. Betting it's 2015-16

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the Southeast, Winter 1972-73 was among the snowiest. A video from that winter's benchmark storm:

 

Was that the same winter we had a historic ice storm that ranks up there with Jan 1994 as the two biggest ice storms we've ever had, Don?

Jan 1994 was amazing 1.5-2 inches of ice here on the south shore!

Does anyone ever keep records of the biggest ice storms?

I'd like to see the records for both NYC and JFK if they do.

JFK stayed below freezing for the duration of the Jan 1994 ice storm so I know they were all ice/frozen and no plain rain.

 

[Snowstorms]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Was that the same winter we had a historic ice storm that ranks up there with Jan 1994 as the two biggest ice storms we've ever had, Don?

Jan 1994 was amazing 1.5-2 inches of ice here on the south shore!

Does anyone ever keep records of the biggest ice storms?

I'd like to see the records for both NYC and JFK if they do.

JFK stayed below freezing for the duration of the Jan 1994 ice storm so I know they were all ice/frozen and no plain rain.

 

I wonder if it was bad as the 2013 ice storm in Toronto? We got 2 inches of ice too and it practically solidified the 5" of snow we had on the ground. 

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/toronto-ice-storm-2013-photos-from-the-gtas-winter-nightmare 

[North and West]

 

LOCK IT IN


.

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow so shocking to see winters from the 1800s in this list, Don.

Whats that winter that begins at the bottom and takes a straight hike up to the top at the end lol.  I'll take that winter. Betting it's 2015-16

 

Yes, that’s 2015-16.

[donsutherland1]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Was that the same winter we had a historic ice storm that ranks up there with Jan 1994 as the two biggest ice storms we've ever had, Don?

Jan 1994 was amazing 1.5-2 inches of ice here on the south shore!

Does anyone ever keep records of the biggest ice storms?

I'd like to see the records for both NYC and JFK if they do.

JFK stayed below freezing for the duration of the Jan 1994 ice storm so I know they were all ice/frozen and no plain rain.

 

Yes. There was a big ice storm that winter. I am not aware of ice records.

[kat5hurricane]

9 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

In fairness if you blanked Dec and you lose Jan…winter is a goner. A 10 incher in February and a quick melt in March wont change that.

 

So he had a good shot at being right on Jan 5th looking at the next 20 days

 

 

A 10+ inch winter is not a futility record and it was more poking fun at that poster who has been downplaying storms and cancelling winter for two decades. I remember as far back as PDII in '03, as a lurker, when he was crying out bust at the onset of that storm when it was lightly snowing for many hours before the heavier stuff arrived. That worked out well for him.

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I wonder if it was bad as the 2013 ice storm in Toronto? We got 2 inches of ice too and it practically solidified the 5" of snow we had on the ground. 

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/toronto-ice-storm-2013-photos-from-the-gtas-winter-nightmare 

Wow that's amazing-- did you get something similar in 1998 too? I remember seeing some amazing ice (damage) pictures from up there.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

A 10+ inch winter is not a futility record and it was more poking fun at that poster who has been downplaying storms and cancelling winter for two decades. I remember as far back as PDII in '03, as a lurker, when he was crying out bust at the onset of that storm when it was lightly snowing for many hours before the heavier stuff arrived. That worked out well for him.

It depends.  1989-90 and 1994-95 are both considered pretty bad winters.

 

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, North and West said:

LOCK IT IN


.

Lock it in, put it in Fort Knox and swallow the keys lol.

Don't want this thing to change.

 

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It depends.  1989-90 and 1994-95 are both considered pretty bad winters.

 

I'll gladly take the one decent event 2/4/95 snow to rain and call that a night at this point.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I'll gladly take the one decent event 2/4/95 snow to rain and call that a night at this point.

It’s just one of those winter where is doesn’t want to get cold In the east. So where does that leave you? Try and root for one storm to hit the area. 

[North and West]

It’s just one of those winter where is doesn’t want to get cold In the east. So where does that leave you? Try and root for one storm to hit the area. 

Two Februaries ago, we had 48” in MMU. It just didn’t stop and didn’t want to not snow. Now, we have zero and it doesn’t want to snow. Averages out to 24”.


.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, North and West said:

Two Februaries ago, we had 48” in MMU. It just didn’t stop and didn’t want to not snow. Now, we have zero and it doesn’t want to snow. Averages out to 24”.


.

2021 was a great winter! Made up so much for the pre pandemic winter 

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS still looks great. stronger confluence as well and the NS is showing some signs of interaction 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I'll gladly take the one decent event 2/4/95 snow to rain and call that a night at this point.

haha I love how you said night

That would be the ultimate insult to have it happen at night and not see it fall lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s just one of those winter where is doesn’t want to get cold In the east. So where does that leave you? Try and root for one storm to hit the area. 

it's like one of those dumb baseball games where every hitter strikes out and you are rooting for the meathead to accidentally hit one out.

 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS still looks great. stronger confluence as well and the NS is showing some signs of interaction 

Nothing like op

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

 

Yawn. Let me know when that says 48hrs not 234

[donsutherland1]

Tonight and tomorrow will see some showers. Readings will be mainly in the 40s.

The slow cooling trend will continue through the weekend. Nevertheless. daily temperatures will continue to run warmer than normal through the first 10 days of January.

Overall, readings will average about 15° above normal during the first week of the month. The second week of January will see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, but a cold outcome is unlikely. Some guidance suggests that there could be a sharper but brief cold shot just before mid-month. There is moderate ensemble support for snowfall during the January 13-15 period with 39% of 12z EPS members showing 1" or more snow.

2022 became the 14th year during which New York City received no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions.

The SOI was +13.43 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.632 today.

On January 2 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.241 (RMM). The January 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.369 (RMM).

 

[MJO812]

49 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yawn. Let me know when that says 48hrs not 234

At least this pattern coming up is more favorable and it's not just the gfs showing it.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

At least this pattern coming up is more favorable and it's not just the gfs showing it.

Combined with the fact the we'll be going towards a more +PNA and MJO in more favorable phases and -AO and -EPO (not huge negatives but negatives)  based on this and that it is not just the GFS I'd have to say this is the best CHANCE at SOMETHING so far this season.  Just have to see if trends hold.  We're quite a ways away and nothing in this time frame has held so far this season so there is reason for caution.  At least something of interest.  Better than continuous torching.

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tonight and tomorrow will see some showers. Readings will be mainly in the 40s.

The slow cooling trend will continue through the weekend. Nevertheless. daily temperatures will continue to run warmer than normal through the first 10 days of January.

Overall, readings will average about 15° above normal during the first week of the month. The second week of January will see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, but a cold outcome is unlikely. Some guidance suggests that there could be a sharper but brief cold shot just before mid-month. There is moderate ensemble support for snowfall during the January 13-15 period with 39% of 12z EPS members showing 1" or more snow.

2022 became the 14th year during which New York City received no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions.

The SOI was +13.43 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.632 today.

On January 2 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.241 (RMM). The January 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.369 (RMM).

 

The AO is still sharply negative but it's so mild is that because there is no cold air on our side of the globe, Don?