January 2023

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     40degs.(36/44) or +7.

Reached 60* here yesterday.       66* in Central Park.

Today:     52-55, wind n. to e., cloudy, 45 tomorrow AM.

Here is a  how it looked inJan. '32:           Just Joking.

Except for 3 possible Trip Points, EURO Ens. is clear sailing AN.

53*(97%RH)FOG<0.25mi. here at 6am{51* at 5am, 55** at Midnight}       54* at 9pm.       55* at Noon.      48* at 6pm.

[bluewave]

The most impressive warm temperature record from the last week goes to Burlington, Vermont. The 51° minimum was the 2nd warmest on record for December. It was also a degree warmer than Newark which made the 4th warmest minimum for January. So another case of the warm minimums across the region ranking higher than the maximums. The high of 66° yesterday at Newark ranked 7th warmest for January.

 

Burlington Area, VT
Period of record: 1884-01-01 through 2023-01-04

Highest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

12/25	45 in 1964	42 in 2014	40 in 1982
12/26	45 in 1895	43 in 1964	36 in 1922
12/27	43 in 1936	41 in 1949	38 in 2019
12/28	39 in 2008	36 in 1982	34 in 1928
12/29	42 in 1984	39 in 1905	38 in 1996
12/30	45 in 2022	35 in 1940	35 in 1927
12/31	51 in 2022	39 in 1965	38 in 1936

 

Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1966	53	0
2	2022	51	0
3	1951	50	0
4	1990	49	0
-	1911	49	0
5	2015	48	0
-	1982	48	0
-	1957	48	0
-	1897	48	0
-	1895	48	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1950	56	0
2	2007	55	0
3	1995	53	0
-	1946	53	0
-	1932	53	0
4	2023	50	27
-	2000	50	0
-	1975	50	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1950	74	0
2	2007	72	0
3	2020	70	0
-	2002	70	0
-	1998	70	0
-	1932	70	0
4	1974	69	0
5	2000	68	0
-	1967	68	0
6	2017	67	0
-	2005	67	0
-	1995	67	0
7	2023	66	27
-	2013	66	0
-	2008	66	0
-	1993	66	0
-	1990	66	0
-	1975	66	0
-	1937	66	0
8	2016	65	0
-	1973	65	0
-	1972	65	0

[CIK62]

HEY!   This really is January 1932:

Average was 36.0, about +4 at the tlme.

37    25    Dec. 31
40    35
40    34
42    36
36    33
43    35
57    43
60    43
43    35
38    35
40    31 Jan. 10
36    30
58    32
68    56
70    55
67    48
48    40
52    38
56    40
40    34
52    35 Jan. 20
43    40
54    40
50    39
52    39
40    35
45    36
53    43
48    38
44    35
60    33 Jan. 30
33    24

 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/1/2023 at 7:45 AM, bluewave said:

Yeah, 8-10 days is the effective limit before the model skill quickly drops off. But sometimes there are aspects of the day 10-15 teleconnection forecasts that the models are able to pick up on. The record block north of Alaska showing up day 10 and beyond was a big model win. But the models didn’t catch on to the block linking up with the SE Ridge until under 8 days. So little details which determine the actual storm tracks take longer to resolve. The record Western Atlantic warm pool and the La Niña cause the models to underestimate the strength of the SE Ridge beyond 7 days.

https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html

 

 

Thanks Chris!  What are the records for the earliest the models have picked up on big noreasters?  Would it be either February 1978 or March 1993 (or both)?

I think they picked up on February 1983, January 1996 and PD2 early too, but we were in the suppression zone originally for those storms.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The most impressive warm temperature record from the last week goes to Burlington, Vermont. The 51° minimum was the 2nd warmest on record for December. It was also a degree warmer than Newark which made the 4th warmest minimum for January. So another case of the warm minimums across the region ranking higher than the maximums. The high of 66° yesterday at Newark ranked 7th warmest for January.

 

Burlington Area, VT
Period of record: 1884-01-01 through 2023-01-04

Highest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

12/25	45 in 1964	42 in 2014	40 in 1982
12/26	45 in 1895	43 in 1964	36 in 1922
12/27	43 in 1936	41 in 1949	38 in 2019
12/28	39 in 2008	36 in 1982	34 in 1928
12/29	42 in 1984	39 in 1905	38 in 1996
12/30	45 in 2022	35 in 1940	35 in 1927
12/31	51 in 2022	39 in 1965	38 in 1936

 

Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1966	53	0
2	2022	51	0
3	1951	50	0
4	1990	49	0
-	1911	49	0
5	2015	48	0
-	1982	48	0
-	1957	48	0
-	1897	48	0
-	1895	48	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1950	56	0
2	2007	55	0
3	1995	53	0
-	1946	53	0
-	1932	53	0
4	2023	50	27
-	2000	50	0
-	1975	50	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1950	74	0
2	2007	72	0
3	2020	70	0
-	2002	70	0
-	1998	70	0
-	1932	70	0
4	1974	69	0
5	2000	68	0
-	1967	68	0
6	2017	67	0
-	2005	67	0
-	1995	67	0
7	2023	66	27
-	2013	66	0
-	2008	66	0
-	1993	66	0
-	1990	66	0
-	1975	66	0
-	1937	66	0
8	2016	65	0
-	1973	65	0
-	1972	65	0

I'm surprised JFK missed the record high of 62 by one degree from 1950 and yet Islip hit 65.  We also got to 65 here in Nassau County....JFK must have had less sun than we did.

[kat5hurricane]

14 hours ago, qg_omega said:

I am officially ending winter, futility records are our best bet

You've been cancelling winter for 20 years so, yeah, your futility record is the best bet.

[bluewave]

The pattern is starting to mimic ones seen during the warmest and wettest super El Niños. Notice the record rains into California and the lack of snow in the New England mountains. It will be interesting to see what caused this to happen during a La Niña year. 
 

 

 

[the_other_guy]

8 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

You've been cancelling winter for 20 years so, yeah, your futility record is the best bet.

In fairness if you blanked Dec and you lose Jan…winter is a goner. A 10 incher in February and a quick melt in March wont change that.

 

So he had a good shot at being right on Jan 5th looking at the next 20 days

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Again I don’t know atmospheric physics well enough to answer this, but could the unprecedented stratospheric water vapor injection from Hunga Tonga last Jan be altering the tropical forcing in unexpected ways? Most large eruptions do NOT output as much water vapor, it’s unprecedented in the historical era. 

IF that has any hand, I would be somewhat concerned as the water vapor stays lofted longer than the 2-3 years of volcanic aerosols. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

In fairness if you blanked Dec and you lose Jan…winter is a goner. A 10 incher in February and a quick melt in March wont change that.

 

So he had a good shot at being right on Jan 5th looking at the next 20 days

 

 

Right if we don't get anything by the end of January we won't even make 20 inches for the season.

 

[EastonSN+]

One thing I have noticed on the models, where coastals eventually turn into cutters, is that the northern stream energy this year seems to always take over/become stronger.

For instance, overnight runs look more cutterish not due to the storm suddenly becoming a cutter, but rather the northern low strengthens, dominates the southern low and therefore we end up on the warm sector as opposed to when the southern low strengthens, moves to our east and brings in cooler air.

I believe in Nina's the northern stream tends to dominate, which has been what we have been seeing all winter.

Now that we are looking at a Nino type flow, perhaps we can get the southern stream low to dominate.

An extreme example of a southern low dominating would be Nemo in Feb 2013. Northern low cuts into Canada but the southern stream low strengthens and takes over.

GFS. Northern stream now prominent with little surface reflection of the southern stream low.

 

[EastonSN+]

35 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

HEY!   This really is January 1932:

37    25    Dec. 31
40    35
40    34
42    36
36    33
43    35
57    43
60    43
43    35
38    35
40    31 Jan. 10
36    30
58    32
68    56
70    55
67    48
48    40
52    38
56    40
40    34
52    35 Jan. 20
43    40
54    40
50    39
52    39
40    35
45    36
53    43
48    38
44    35
60    33 Jan. 30
33    24

 

Do you have 1916? Curious as BDR had back to back days of 65.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

One thing I have noticed on the models, where coastals eventually turn into cutters, is that the northern stream energy this year seems to always take over/become stronger.

For instance, overnight runs look more cutterish not due to the storm suddenly becoming a cutter, but rather the northern low strengthens, dominates the southern low and therefore we end up on the warm sector as opposed to when the southern low strengthens, moves to our east and brings in cooler air.

I believe in Nina's the northern stream tends to dominate, which has been what we have been seeing all winter.

Now that we are looking at a Nino type flow, perhaps we can get the southern stream low to dominate.

An extreme example of a southern low dominating would be Nemo in Feb 2013. Northern low cuts into Canada but the southern stream low strengthens and takes over.

GFS. Northern stream now prominent with little surface reflection of the southern stream low.

 

2013. This winter being la Nina, the northern low would dominant and we are warm-sectored. Obviously we know in 2013 the southern low took over and history is made.

[wdrag]

I've refired the 12/23 Jan 6 portion of this discussion in nw-ne suburbs.  Those up there may want to see if this works. This also is part of 12/23-24 GFS cue.  

No question we have to flush out yesterdays record temps but an unstable moist lapse rate + the strong 5H short wave may be inducing low pressure near LI tomorrow and resulting in a widespread expanding mixed precip event as marginally cold air arrives on ne winds from N. Hampshire.  The NAEFS a few days as posted here, was maybe as much as 5C too cold for 00z/6 but what models were discarding for the past few days seems to be developing some consensus for a first minor whitening of the ground I84 high terrain since at least 12/23.  One little event at a time. 

[MJO812]

People are still giving up on the mid month threat ?

[MJO812]

These are not warm phases in Janaury. Can we stop saying that already. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, MJO812 said:

These are not warm phases in Janaury. Can we stop saying that already. 

You need to have cold air on this side of the globe to tap into it.

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People are still giving up on the mid month threat ?

No I think there is still a possibility. Positives are retracting jet and southern stream influence.

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

2013. This winter being la Nina, the northern low would dominant and we are warm-sectored. Obviously we know in 2013 the southern low took over and history is made.

Let's be honest that was  a great storm for a small area it wasn't some HECS.  

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

You need to have cold air on this side of the globe to tap into it.

 

Yep.  Eastern Canada is completely devoid of arctic air....likely having to do with the warm SST's off the coast

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

These are not warm phases in Janaury. Can we stop saying that already. 

Nobody is saying that…..but with a strong polar vortex it seems that it won’t matter that the mjo is in the cold phases. IMO too much is made of the cold phases of the mjo. Lately we haven’t been cold when they have been in the ideal phases. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nobody is saying that…..but with a strong polar vortex it seems that it won’t matter that the mjo is in the cold phases. IMO too much is made of the cold phases of the mjo. Lately we haven’t been cold when they have been in the ideal phases. 

When did we make it in the ideal phases ?

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nobody is saying that…..but with a strong polar vortex it seems that it won’t matter that the mjo is in the cold phases. IMO too much is made of the cold phases of the mjo. Lately we haven’t been cold when they have been in the ideal phases. 

Normal temps will work in January. We don't need super cold temps .

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Let's be honest that was  a great storm for a small area it wasn't some HECS.  

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Let's be honest that was  a great storm for a small area it wasn't some HECS.  

22 to30 inches from SW CT to Yonkers.

30 plus central LI

It was a HECS for 50% of this forum.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep.  Eastern Canada is completely devoid of arctic air....likely having to do with the warm SST's off the coast

We've seen this so many times I feel like it's a rerun.

Did people really forget 1989-90, 1997-98, 2001-02 and 2011-2012 so quickly lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

22 to30 inches from SW CT to Yonkers.

30 plus central LI

It was a HECS for 50% of this forum.

I'm not sure about that.  It was 10 inches or less from here and west of here.  It was mostly a New England storm.  MECS yes

 

 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Normal temps will work in January. We don't need super cold temps .

How have the normal temps worked this week? 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That map actually proves it was mostly  a New England storm.  Most of us in the light blue were in the 10-12 inch range.  That's MECS.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Normal temps will work in January. We don't need super cold temps .

Normal temps may be hard to come by especially when it's precipitating.  If you've noticed highs in the 30s and lower seem to happening only when cold fronts push through and when we get a storm it's in the 40s or higher.