EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Up to 63! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 63!!! Up we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 14 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ..but the past can help to predict the future. 100% accurate??..no it is not but it certainly can provide a good baseline for where things may be heading. Of course. I'm not saying it can't or doesn't. What I'm saying is that if we average 9 inches of snow by January 15 and 29 inches overall, then the benchmark for the period from January 15-end of winter is 20 inches. Not to pick on Don, since he's one of the best posters on here (and the story doesn't actually completely change), but his post a little while ago is a good example. Those snowfall totals should be compared to normal post-Jan 4 amounts to determine whether bad Decembers predict bad winters...not compared to normal full season amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Record high of 65° at Islip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: if people looked for what could only go wrong, snowstorms would literally never be forecasted Dec 2010 was thread the needle, Jan 2016 and Feb 2021 had too much confluence and so on it's important to acknowledge periods of higher potential I'm talking about in the longer range. Most snowstorm threats that are 7+ days out on the models fail. Snowstorms should only be forecasted when they get to the more accurate/reasonable day 5 range, IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scootmandu Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Crazy warm today. Already up to 67.5 in Fort Salonga. All the models seem way under on the forecasted temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, winterwx21 said: I'm talking about in the longer range. Most snowstorm threats that are 7+ days out on the models fail. Snowstorms should only be forecasted when they get to the more accurate/reasonable day 5 range, IMO. I know, but nobody is forecasting a snowstorm... people are only addressing a threat, which is also important. there is certainly a threat or two next week, mainly for the one towards the end of the week if people assign unreasonable expectations due to those threats, that is on that person IMO 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 35 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yep. We know that most snowstorm chances fail for our area, so it's best to look for what could go wrong rather than what could go right. I like Anthony's enthusiasm, but he's always looking for what could go right rather than what could go wrong and that leads to disappointment most of the time. I'm not looking for enthusiasm all the time. The pattern doesn't look bad at all. There is a legit storm threat mid month . That's all we can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Temperatures across the area are soaring to near record and record highs. Yet another day is passing where snow-starved New York City and Philadelphia won't see any measurable snowfall. The larger Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia corridor is currently passing through a fairly novel situation. Beginning in the 1990s, winters with very low snowfall in Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia through the end of December began to appear. Winter 2022-2023 became just the 5th winter beginning with 1893-1894 where Boston saw less than 2" of snow and both New York City and Philadelphia had no measurable snowfall through January 4th. The sample size is very small, but most of those winters went on to see below normal seasonal snowfall. Could things be worse? Perhaps. Since 1950, Winter 2022-2023 became only the second winter to see no measurable snowfall in both New York City and Philadelphia when the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was negative for all 35 days. The other winter: 2001-2002. During Winter 2001-2002, the MJO passed through Phase 8 during January 4-9 and Phases 8-1-2 during January 4-18. Temperatures remained generally mild. Phase 8 passage: Boston: 39.3°; New York City: 39.7°; Philadelphia: 39.5° Phases 8-1-2 passage: Boston: 39.8°; New York City: 42.4°; Philadelphia: 43.4° During the passage through phases 8-1-2, New York City picked up 3.5" of snow and Philadelphia saw 4.0". And that concluded the snow season for both cities. Boston limped to a seasonal total of 15.1". For now, even as the odds are increasingly tilting toward below normal snowfall, a disastrously low outcome isn't the most likely scenario. Indeed, some guidance supports at least the potential for some snow by mid-month. But that's guidance. Things can change. Finally, even as it isn't the most likely outcome, a disastrously low outcome cannot be dismissed outright. So basically and unprecedented El Nino storm or a gutter ball! I’ll go with the gutter ball at this point. The question is how low will the snowfall total be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 63!!! Up we go Just hit 65 here! I'm going to take advantage of this nice warm weather. Heading out to Hunterdon county where I deer hunt to do some hiking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 topped at 65 here-clouds rolling in now down to 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 68 on my Tempest at the TR Manchester border. My AccuWeather App is showing 64 here at work west of EWR. Pretty gross. To me, enjoy it guys if this is your thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Just hit 65 here! I'm going to take advantage of this nice warm weather. Heading out to Hunterdon county where I deer hunt to do some hiking. Ever go to musconetcong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 20 minutes ago, scootmandu said: Crazy warm today. Already up to 67.5 in Fort Salonga. All the models seem way under on the forecasted temperatures. Until mid spring models usually under forecast warm spells like these. Warm down sloping winds and lack of evapotranspiration from leafed out trees (unless models have been upgraded to account for this). In this case the much warmer than average waters probably help quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I got 64 at HPN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 If it weren't for the clouds we would easily see widespread 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Until mid spring models usually under forecast warm spells like these. Warm down sloping winds and lack of evapotranspiration from leafed out trees (unless models have been upgraded to account for this). In this case the much warmer than average waters probably help quite a bit. RGEM and GEM-LAM nailed today's temperatures. They were the only models showing 60+ temps for LI, until the HRRR did as well. They were the only models showing the possibility of 70+ degrees in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Meanwhile...Ill take a 1-3" .....Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 NYC tied the record at 66 with the latest hourly observation. 000SXUS71 KOKX 041746RERNYCRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY1246 PM EST WED JAN 4 2023...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT CENTRAL PARK NY...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 WAS TIED AT CENTRAL PARK NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1950.THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUES TO RISE.ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).$$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm not looking for enthusiasm all the time. The pattern doesn't look bad at all. There is a legit storm threat mid month . That's all we can ask for. Ant. Change your profile pic to rain. Reverse the curse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: NYC tied the record at 66 with the latest hourly observation. 000SXUS71 KOKX 041746RERNYCRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY1246 PM EST WED JAN 4 2023...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT CENTRAL PARK NY...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 WAS TIED AT CENTRAL PARK NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1950.THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF THE TEMPERATURE CONTINUES TO RISE.ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).$$ Awesome!!!! We take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 21 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Ant. Change your profile pic to rain. Reverse the curse New Profile pic and new screen name! NYC_RAIN_ANT23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Ensembles hinting at more record warmth around the 20th!!! Might be the warmest January on record 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 The incoming clouds probably mean my high is 64 for the day. I will take it. Windows open! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 30 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Ant. Change your profile pic to rain. Reverse the curse Agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ensembles hinting at more record warmth around the 20th!!! Might be the warmest January on record And ignoring the possible favorable pattern before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 gfs has snow while the euro is 50 and sunny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: gfs has snow while the euro is 50 and sunny Not an inch of snow through day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: And ignoring the possible favorable pattern before that. 01-02 had a 5-10 day window in mid Jan-maybe we get that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, Brian5671 said: 01-02 had a 5-10 day window in mid Jan-maybe we get that.... Agree Euro had 2 threats but missed the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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