donsutherland1 Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I hope it's fairly dry during this period. It may not be dry. There are signals on the EPS that the January 1-2 and January 5-7 periods could be wet. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 Great. Let's fool the plants into thinking it's time to grow again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 Despite the warmth we've become used to, this upcoming stretch is really impressive. First week of January with days and days of 50+ highs and some lows not even dropping below 40...that's insane. It's not like this past week where we had a temp spike but then it crashed the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 3 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Despite the warmth we've become used to, this upcoming stretch is really impressive. First week of January with days and days of 50+ highs and some lows not even dropping below 40...that's insane. It's not like this past week where we had a temp spike but then it crashed the next day. That's good. If it's not gonna snow then give me mild weather. The cold/dry was a waste 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 18 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah this 100% feels different than the ratters of the past. 97/98, 11/12, 19/20 never had a setup like we are in/just had. The aforementioned seasons looked hopeless from minute one. Maybe 01/02 since the models constantly teased us, however again it never had the setup we just had outside of modeling. Half the forum already had a snowfall, one storm was northwest of us, the next one is going to end up Southeast of us and weak. We were stuck in the middle. I posted it before, but if December 2000 did not phase on time, if December 2010 was just a smidge east we would be in the same boat as this year. Shows how luck/timing plays in. We were spoiled for years now where it seemed like every single good setup produced. Could this be 89/90 where we actually WERE in a good pattern that did not produce much then went on to rat? It could just as easily be 12/13 and we had a spectacular finish. 2010-11 is in an entirely different category because it was a la nina after an el nino I posted on this extensively in the December thread as being the ideal combo if you love extremes (going from extreme summer heat to extremely high snowfalls.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: That's good. If it's not gonna snow then give me mild weather. The cold/dry was a waste Hopefully mild weather and sunshine, I dont want to see rain every other day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: It may not be dry. There are signals on the EPS that the January 1-2 and January 5-7 periods could be wet. why can't we actually get a block to block stuff away from us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Only winters 1885-86 and 2015-16 had subzero lows. How low did it get in 1885-96, Don, lower than -2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 There were 15 La Niña Decembers in NYC with under 3” of snow since 1950. 11 of those seasons finished with under 20” of snow. But 3 of them managed to get close to normal seasonal snowfall around 23-25”. One of the seasons was 83-84 which also had single digit cold around Christmas like this year. December 2022 only has T of snow so far. It’s also the first La Niña December with such low snowfall to have an AO reading below -4. 83-84,73-74, and 71-72 were the 3 Decembers on the list to get closer to normal seasonal snowfall. 2 of those Decembers had AO drops under -2. It will be interesting to see if we can get enough snow to rank closer to the 23-25” 3 years rather than the 11 under 20”. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1954-1955 0.0 T 0.1 2.6 5.2 3.6 0.0 11.5 Lowest December daily AO reading 2022….-4.238 2011…..-0.018 2007….-1.438 1999….-1.870 1998….-1.733 1988….-0.084 1985…..-3.783 1983…..-2.252 1975….-0.222 1974…..-1.659 1973…..-2.792 1971…..-1.398 1970….-2.530 1954….-1.748 . 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: There were 15 La Niña Decembers in NYC with under 3” of snow since 1950. 11 of those seasons finished with under 20” of snow. But 3 of them managed to get close to normal seasonal snowfall around 23-25”. One of the seasons was 83-84 which also had single digit cold around Christmas like this year. December 2022 only has T of snow so far. It’s also the first La Niña December with such low snowfall to have an AO reading below -4. So 83-84,73-74, and 71-72 were the few Decembers on the list to drop lower on the daily AO index. It will be interesting to see if we can get enough snow to rank closer to the 23-25” 3 years rather than the 11 under 20”. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1954-1955 0.0 T 0.1 2.6 5.2 3.6 0.0 11.5 Lowest December daily AO reading 2022….-4.238 2011…..-0.018 2007….-1.438 1999….-1.870 1998….-1.733 1988….-0.084 1985…..-3.783 1983…..-2.252 1975….-0.222 1974…..-1.659 1973…..-2.792 1971…..-1.398 1970….-2.530 1954….-1.748 . Chris, I talked about 83-84 in the December thread in relation to the other wonderfully extreme years that resulted from going from an el nino to a la nina (extremely hot summers-- actual heat not just high mins-- to very snowy winters.) Although 83-84 wasn't extremely snowy it did have more frequent snows and of course the arctic cold was there. What were the other two 20"+ snowfall cases besides that, were any of them multi year la ninas? I see years in there where the AO either wasn't low enough (not lower than -2) or they weren't snowy enough to qualify. How many do we have where the December AO was both lower than -2 and they had 20"+ of seasonal snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: How low did it get in 1885-96, Don, lower than -2? -4. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 Looking like some 10 degrees above normal for the first few weeks of January. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 18 minutes ago, lee59 said: Looking like some 10 degrees above normal for the first few weeks of January. 1st week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: 1st week It should get considerably better after the 10th. We don't need a lot of cold in mid Jan to get snow either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It should get considerably better after the 10th. We don't need a lot of cold in mid Jan to get snow either. I hope you guys are correct but the models did not seem to show much improvement after the first week. It is a long way off as far as weather goes, so there is always hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 Gfs has a better pattern by January 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 Near record Christmas to New Years warm up which could exceed 89-90 for lows around Christmas and highs around New Years. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 24 to Dec 25 Dec31 to Jan 1 highest Max Temperature 1 1980-12-25 -1 28 2 1983-12-25 4 32 - 1872-12-25 4 38 4 1883-12-25 7 37 5 1989-12-25 9 53 - 1960-12-25 9 44 - 1896-12-25 9 46 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 Through at least the first week of January, the low temperature in New York City will likely remain above freezing. That implies a high probability that New York City will not see its first measurable snowfall until after the first week of January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 More can kicked changes on the ens. We will blow past the date of last winters first snowfall. Ratter winter coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 32 minutes ago, Allsnow said: More can kicked changes on the ens. We will blow past the date of last winters first snowfall. Ratter winter coming Hopefully we won't see any snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Hopefully we won't see any snow If that were to happen I'd also hope for it to be warm. Cold and dry sucks and why bother wasting the $$ on heating costs. As of 1/1 those costs will be going through the roof in CT when their electric rates will double for over 80% of the homes and businesses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: More can kicked changes on the ens. We will blow past the date of last winters first snowfall. Ratter winter coming So winter is over on December 28 ? I will take notes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Hopefully we won't see any snow Winter is still young 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: More can kicked changes on the ens. We will blow past the date of last winters first snowfall. Ratter winter coming I'd ignore the GEPS if that is what you're referencing as it has been extremely bad the last 4 weeks now beyond D8-10...the EPS/GEFS have not really budged at all now in 5 days...the main problem is some ensemble members either have the ridge out west too short or too far east...to a degree we see a bit of the 03-04/04-05 thing going on which worked for us and SNE but basically the rest of the country straight out torched in both of those winters where the ridge is basically centered over the Plains or just west of there...that pattern can work here, especially if the NAO is negative. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Winter is still young I would like to see futility records broken. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I would like to see futility records broken. Going to be extremely hard to pull that off. This isn’t a super nino. 98 was really close to doing it with 5” in late March that melted in an hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Going to be extremely hard to pull that off. This isn’t a super nino. 98 was really close to doing it with 5” in late March that melted in an hour. I personally feel the 72-73 record is never going to get broken because the issue now with the overall higher precipitable water/warm SSTs is you are just too likely to get juicier systems or storminess...trying to pull off an 81-82 or 01-02 where you are insanely cold and dry or warm and dry is not easy. You'll get something somewhere but certainly winters with 3-4-5-6 inches are possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I personally feel the 72-73 record is never going to get broken because the issue now with the overall higher precipitable water/warm SSTs is you are just too likely to get juicier systems or storminess...trying to pull off an 81-82 or 01-02 where you are insanely cold and dry or warm and dry is not easy. You'll get something somewhere but certainly winters with 3-4-5-6 inches are possible If the Pacific puke pattern locks in a la 89/90 then we have a good chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If the Pacific puke pattern locks in a la 89/90 then we have a good chance. Yup. Mjo stuck in 7…it’s over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. Mjo stuck in 7…it’s over Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now