SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It has support from the eps Let me know when it shows that at day 2 instead of 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: BDR Jan highs. Can they reach 70 for the first time? OT but wonder if the two day stretch of 60 plus in 1916 will ever be broken. Rank Temperature Date 1 69 °F January 12, 2020 2 68 °F January 6, 2007 2 68 °F January 29, 2002 2 68 °F January 14, 1932 5 65 °F January 9, 2008 5 65 °F January 27, 1974 5 65 °F January 28, 1916 5 65 °F January 27, 1916 5 65 °F January 7, 1907 must be a flow off the sound at BDR-only showing 55. I'm at 64 just south of the Merritt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: GFS looks amazing... ...starting at day 7 The run will change in 6 hrs. GFS OP past day 5 has been terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 20 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Was just reading about Europe. I think we are in trouble. The article said this is unprecedented, at least in recorded history. Thousands of records shattered in historic winter warm spell in Europe (msn.com) Simply amazing!! I'm sure JB will spin it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Thousands of records shattered in historic winter warm spell in Europe (msn.com) Simply amazing!! I'm sure JB will spin it.. JB would never mention something that goes against his climate hoax agenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: JB would never mention something that goes against his climate hoax agenda. meaning he will find some"cause" besides man made global warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: must be a flow off the sound at BDR-only showing 55. I'm at 64 just south of the Merritt Yup I am at 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: When doesn’t the gfs have that? Yeah I'm so tired of the GFS messing with us. It wasn't long ago that it had snow for us this friday, but of course we now know it's just gonna be a little light rain. GFS has teased us several times this winter. Horrible model that should be ignored when it doesn't have any support from other models. I just looked at the CMC and it doesn't have snow for us next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The run will change in 6 hrs. GFS OP past day 5 has been terrible It has support with a storm from the Eps and MJO. Jeez this subforum is a morgue right now with everyone downplaying everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: When doesn’t the gfs have that? Dude it has support. Not saying it's right but at least mention that. Stop trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 It’s rough, man. There’s truth to the statement that we’ve been “trolled” by favorable storm depictions that evaporate in the shorter medium term. It’s a bitter pill, you know? I like you though MJO812, you keep the faith going because it rubs off on me sometimes. I don’t like taking a defeatist attitude about this stuff. Winter certainly isn’t over on Jan 4th no matter what it shows right now. Might be an uphill battle, but I have to believe this is not going to be a wall to wall shutout. Statistically of course they’re rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It has support with a storm from the Eps and MJO. Jeez this subforum is a morgue right now with everyone downplaying everything. It's January 4th and we haven't had anything more than a dusting of snow, and the pattern doesn't look very favorable. Obviously we can get thread the needle snow events in bad winters, so no one should be saying we won't get any snow at all this winter. But the situation is not good at all. You seem to be in denial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: It has support with a storm from the Eps and MJO. Jeez this subforum is a morgue right now with everyone downplaying everything. This morgue has plenty of spots available for modeled snowstorms.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah I'm so tired of the GFS messing with us. It wasn't long ago that it had snow for us this friday, but of course we now know it's just gonna be a little light rain. GFS has teased us several times this winter. Horrible model that should be ignored when it doesn't have any support from other models. I just looked at the CMC and it doesn't have snow for us next week. It has been so bad this year that only a few even care what it shows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 the CMC has a really nice evolution the wave on Wednesday establishes confluence with a TPV lobe, there's an amplified S/W moving through the Plains along with a +PNA spike, and then there's a phase with the confluence in place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It's January 4th and we haven't had anything more than a dusting of snow, and the pattern doesn't look very favorable. Obviously we can get thread the needle snow events in bad winters, so no one should be saying we won't get any snow at all this winter. But the situation is not good at all. You seem to be in denial. Many years ago when I first began to have access to the internet and weather models I thought it was cool to be able to view the models but after a while I began to realize how bad thee models were. They are the equivalent of prospect lists in baseball. Both lead to people being disappointed more times than not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Gfs has a nice pattern after this week Not shocking since there is a favorable MJO this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It has been so bad this year that only a few even care what it shows But you are also ignoring the EPS. This is a legit storm chance even if it misses us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Gfs has a nice pattern after this week Not shocking since there is a favorable MJO this time around. I wouldn't "trust" any favorable pattern until it has been in place for at least a week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Temperatures across the area are soaring to near record and record highs. Yet another day is passing where snow-starved New York City and Philadelphia won't see any measurable snowfall. The larger Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia corridor is currently passing through a fairly novel situation. Beginning in the 1990s, winters with very low snowfall in Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia through the end of December began to appear. Winter 2022-2023 became just the 5th winter beginning with 1893-1894 where Boston saw less than 2" of snow and both New York City and Philadelphia had no measurable snowfall through January 4th. The sample size is very small, but most of those winters went on to see below normal seasonal snowfall. Could things be worse? Perhaps. Since 1950, Winter 2022-2023 became only the second winter to see no measurable snowfall in both New York City and Philadelphia when the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was negative for all 35 days. The other winter: 2001-2002. During Winter 2001-2002, the MJO passed through Phase 8 during January 4-9 and Phases 8-1-2 during January 4-18. Temperatures remained generally mild. Phase 8 passage: Boston: 39.3°; New York City: 39.7°; Philadelphia: 39.5° Phases 8-1-2 passage: Boston: 39.8°; New York City: 42.4°; Philadelphia: 43.4° During the passage through phases 8-1-2, New York City picked up 3.5" of snow and Philadelphia saw 4.0". And that concluded the snow season for both cities. Boston limped to a seasonal total of 15.1". For now, even as the odds are increasingly tilting toward below normal snowfall, a disastrously low outcome isn't the most likely scenario. Indeed, some guidance supports at least the potential for some snow by mid-month. But that's guidance. Things can change. Finally, even as it isn't the most likely outcome, a disastrously low outcome cannot be dismissed outright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Many years ago when I first began to have access to the internet and weather models I thought it was cool to be able to view the models but after a while I began to realize how bad thee models were. They are the equivalent of prospect lists in baseball. Both lead to people being disappointed more times than not. Yep. We know that most snowstorm chances fail for our area, so it's best to look for what could go wrong rather than what could go right. I like Anthony's enthusiasm, but he's always looking for what could go right rather than what could go wrong and that leads to disappointment most of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 67 now! The island is cooking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, winterwx21 said: Yep. We know that most snowstorm chances fail for our area, so it's best to look for what could go wrong rather than what could go right. I like Anthony's enthusiasm, but he's always looking for what can go right rather than what can go wrong and that leads to disappointment most of the time. Back in the day the on air mets would take the time to explain the possible outcomes. Now they show model output/futurecast with no explanation or forecast made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Pet peeve that's been bugging me in posts on this board for years: If you're going to use early winter lack of snowfall as evidence that the rest of winter is likely to be bad for snow...then don't post below average TOTAL snowfall as the proof. Instead show totals for the later part of winter. Otherwise, you're essentially just predicting the past. If we're say 6 inches short of where we usually are at this point, then of course we're likely to end up short of our usual total...but as long as we end less than 6 inches short of average, we've actually had a pretty good winter from this point on and could argue that the lack of snowfall early in the winter did NOT indicate that the rest of winter would be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yep. We know that most snowstorm chances fail for our area, so it's best to look for what could go wrong rather than what could go right. I like Anthony's enthusiasm, but he's always looking for what could go right rather than what could go wrong and that leads to disappointment most of the time. if people looked for what could only go wrong, snowstorms would literally never be forecasted Dec 2010 was thread the needle, Jan 2016 and Feb 2021 had too much confluence and so on it's important to acknowledge periods of higher potential 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: BDR Jan highs. Can they reach 70 for the first time? OT but wonder if the two day stretch of 60 plus in 1916 will ever be broken. Rank Temperature Date 1 69 °F January 12, 2020 2 68 °F January 6, 2007 2 68 °F January 29, 2002 2 68 °F January 14, 1932 5 65 °F January 9, 2008 5 65 °F January 27, 1974 5 65 °F January 28, 1916 5 65 °F January 27, 1916 5 65 °F January 7, 1907 It will be interesting to see how warm it gets. Clouds could limit today’s warming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 ISP already broke their record at 65 64 here and starting to fall slowly. Sea breeze might be kicking in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said: Pet peeve that's been bugging me in posts on this board for years: If you're going to use early winter lack of snowfall as evidence that the rest of winter is likely to be bad for snow...then don't post below average TOTAL snowfall as the proof. Instead show totals for the later part of winter. Otherwise, you're essentially just predicting the past. If we're say 6 inches short of where we usually are at this point, then of course we're likely to end up short of our usual total...but as long as we end less than 6 inches short of average, we've actually had a pretty good winter from this point on and could argue that the lack of snowfall early in the winter did NOT indicate that the rest of winter would be bad. ..but the past can help to predict the future. 100% accurate??..no it is not but it certainly can provide a good baseline for where things may be heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, psv88 said: 67 now! The island is cooking 52 at Captree. Jan 4th sea breeze front lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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