jm1220 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 52 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Dude it's January 4 The cold and snow chances usually come when the MJO goes into 8-1. Bluewave is a great poster but it doesn't mean he is right . All we need is a slight buckle of the western jet. The mid month storm looks intriguing. No offense but I would take what Bluewave says over likely yet another 10 day model mirage. He’s explained over and over why these mirages happen and we know how they turn out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Late February and March have shorter wavelengths and volatility, so that would be a target. Yes but cold air is also fleeting so the variables cancel out. As great of a pattern as March 2018 was it delivered lackluster totals vs what would've occurred a month earlier because cold air was lacking at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 AC up to 65 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yes but cold air is also fleeting so the variables cancel out. As great of a pattern as March 2018 was it delivered lackluster totals vs what would've occurred a month earlier because cold air was lacking at times. I think the forum is so spread out it's hard to gauge who has been successful late season. Speaking for coastal SW CT, March has delivered more often than not. For instance, March 2019 (the forgotten March due to 2018) received 2 snowstorms totalling 11.5 below. Snowiest month of the year of course. How much did your back yard get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 61° now in NYC as they are getting closer to the record of 66°. 1/4 66 in 1950 64 in 1993 62 in 1998 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 For snow lovers two reasons to hold out some hope 1.) Duration=volatility. 2 plus months to go, therefore hard to rule out flukes like February 2018. 2.) Return of the block. As Don, Bluewave pointed out blocking tends to return when it presents itself in December. Therefore there is a chance it could happen February or March and provide some benefit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: 61° now in NYC as they are getting closer to the record of 66°. 1/4 66 in 1950 64 in 1993 62 in 1998 Absolutely beautiful outside today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I think the forum is so spread out it's hard to gauge who has been successful late season. Speaking for coastal SW CT, March has delivered more often than not. For instance, March 2019 (the forgotten March due to 2018) received 2 snowstorms totalling 11.5 below. Snowiest month of the year of course. How much did your back yard get? Yeah that's true. I guess I'm just thinking of the immediate NYC metro. CT is also SNE to me and they normally do well in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: AC up to 65 already Stop it. there is zero need for air conditioning at the moment. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Going to hit 70 with no problem. This winter is over after a 2 day artic blast. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Going to hit 70 with no problem. winter is over after a 2 day artic blast. This deserves so many weenies. Canceling winter. Allsnow turned into snowman19 this year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: This deserves so many weenies. Canceling winter. Allsnow turned into snowman19 this year . You’re still in the denial phases…11-15 day has the tpv bleeding into Ak…ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You’re still in the denial phases…11-15 day has the tpv bleeding into Ak…ugly Was just reading about Europe. I think we are in trouble. The article said this is unprecedented, at least in recorded history. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 At 11 pm, Atlantic City (69°), New Haven (57°), and White Plains (63°) have all set new record highs. More are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Unbelievable that we are so warm. I can't remember a winter where we have been ABOVE freezing even at night way up into the mountains of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Just stop with the, but this is only January 4th. People who depend on winter (aka most of the states just listed) are absolutely going to be hurting. Just take a look at the icecoast subreddit. We are seeing ski areas that are barely open in JANUARY!! Even if we turn sharply colder with no natural snow it will take a miracle to get these ski areas 100% open for MLK weekend. The bulk of money made for northeast ski season is literally right now through President's Day weekend. This is historically bad as they aren't even able to make snow right now. Luckily many areas did have a decent Christmas week, but things are bleak right now. Let's hope we can at least have freezing overnights as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 26 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Going to hit 70 with no problem. This winter is over after a 2 day artic blast. Agreed, def the coldest air of the season is already behind us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Unbelievable that we are so warm. I can't remember a winter where we have been ABOVE freezing even at night way up into the mountains of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Just stop with the, but this is only January 4th. People who depend on winter (aka most of the states just listed) are absolutely going to be hurting. Just take a look at the icecoast subreddit. We are seeing ski areas that are barely open in JANUARY!! Even if we turn sharply colder with no natural snow it will take a miracle to get these ski areas 100% open for MLK weekend. The bulk of money made for northeast ski season is literally right now through President's Day weekend. This is historically bad as they aren't even able to make snow right now. Luckily many areas did have a decent Christmas week, but things are bleak right now. Let's hope we can at least have freezing overnights as currently modeled. It’s a historic snow season out west, always winners and losers. The pattern is well coupled and extremely stable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This deserves so many weenies. Canceling winter. Allsnow turned into snowman19 this year . Where is snowman19? He should be here with bells on given this ratter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 32 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Going to hit 70 with no problem. This winter is over after a 2 day artic blast. It still would be extremely difficult not to see snow even in the warmest, ugliest winter. And right on cue the GFS has a weenie-ish like run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Meanwhile gfs has big snow and ice in a week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: At 11 pm, Atlantic City (69°), New Haven (57°), and White Plains (63°) have all set new record highs. More are likely. BDR Jan highs. Can they reach 70 for the first time? OT but wonder if the two day stretch of 60 plus in 1916 will ever be broken. Rank Temperature Date 1 69 °F January 12, 2020 2 68 °F January 6, 2007 2 68 °F January 29, 2002 2 68 °F January 14, 1932 5 65 °F January 9, 2008 5 65 °F January 27, 1974 5 65 °F January 28, 1916 5 65 °F January 27, 1916 5 65 °F January 7, 1907 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 GFS looks amazing... ...starting at day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Meanwhile gfs has big snow and ice in a week So glad we have that to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, cleetussnow said: GFS looks amazing... ...starting at day 7 It has support from the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: GFS looks amazing... ...starting at day 7 Better than day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 GFS next week. Way too early but at least gives us something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It still would be extremely difficult not to see snow even in the warmest, ugliest winter. And right on cue the GFS has a weenie-ish like run. When doesn’t the gfs have that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Where is snowman19? He should be here with bells on given this ratter. I never minded him, truly. At least he would mostly back his takes up with analyses. He always came across as pretty sharp, to me. I guess it comes down to tact/tone with some posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 First 70 degree readings of the year showing up. Just balmy out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 The usual yardwork in shorts on January 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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