donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Graph showing winters without measurable snowfall through December 31s through January 3: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Temperatures could end up higher if there's less clouds tomorrow. HRRR would tie the record at NYC at 66 (1950). RGEM has 68 in the city. Newark and places S&W of the city could see 70s. NWS has 58 for me, I think we reach 60 here at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: BRUTAL FACTS: 1. GFS Ens. can not show even 1 high % BN day, in the next 15 2. The best chance for a Low <32 is Jan. 12---then a retreat into Canada for the 32's. 3. JB thinks he may be wrong about the cold returning. A scary thought: Back in the 82-83 season I coined the phrase for myself "The Ten Day Winter". It did snow in December---but the Christmas Holiday Season was in the 60's, and I watched the tourists holding their winter coats in their arms while they waited for the Statue of Liberty Ferry in Battery Park---which can generate nice wind chill values usually. Then for about a week in February it went BN and we squeezed in a 22" snowstorm---which was quickly gone. The Scary Thought is: What if we already have had the 10 Day Winter w/o the snow? In other words: That's the most encouraging sign for snowy weather I've seen yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Gfs still too warm for Monday Cmc couple inches west of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 What a winter for the west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 LGA 14C; BOS 4C this morning for the Shuttle flight huge temp swing with that warm front sitting over northern CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Morning thoughts… Today will be variably cloudy and unseasonably warm. High temperatures will reach the lower 60s along the coastline and middle and upper 60s in most other areas. A shower is possible in some areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 68° It will turn somewhat cooler starting tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 40.1°; 15-Year: 41.1° Newark: 30-Year: 40.6°; 15-Year: 41.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.9°; 15-Year: 42.9° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Putting on shorts this morning!. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Not sure whether to laugh or cry, so I just gave you a like. It stinks how much this one week torch sucked the life out of winter. I totally get that many don’t appreciate sharp cold without snow, but at least for me Dec was kinda fun. Had a winter to deep winter vibe and I finally got a cold Xmas. Every year I hope for that and I finally got something even beyond my best expectations. The day before Xmas Eve when the front pushed through was *crazy*, and at least I got to see some flakes fly with the dramatic temp drop as I was heading home from work. It really felt like Dec could be the start of an interesting winter. Can’t overemphasize it, we just need to get on the board. The area at least. Will go a long way to improving the vibe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Not sure whether to laugh or cry, so I just gave you a like. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 43degs.(38/48) or +10. Reached 55 here yesterday. Today: 59-66, wind w. to e. to n., variable clouds, showers 4pm-Midnight, 53 tomorrow AM. Looks like another Heat Wave building for the coldest part of the winter. Only the briefest encounters with any BN air seems likely in the next 15 days. GFS seems similar. Start thinking about January 1932 falling by the wayside if pattern does not break. 8 out of the 12 Hottest months of the year have occurred in the last 32 years. January is the biggest holdout. Begging for <32 at the coldest time of the season?: This output % peaks on Jan. 09. 55*(93%RH) here at 6am{51* at midnight} 56* at 8am. 57* at 9am. 60* at 10:30am. 60* at Noon. Down to 56-58 2pm.-5pm. 54* at 7pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I'm tracking next weeks storm One of then has to hit us 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Sunny now, fog has burned off. Let's see how high we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm tracking next weeks storm One of then has to hit us We can't even approach freezing in the morning. It's getting historically terrible Today feels like mid-late April 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We can't even approach freezing in the morning. It's getting historically terrible Today feels like mid-late April It sucks but we should get chances with the MJO going into 8-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It sucks but we should get chances with the MJO going into 8-1 If not you need to change your name 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It sucks but we should get chances with the MJO going into 8-1 Cue Bluewave to explain how MJO doesn't dictate the pattern. We have a firehose pacific jet. That's going to obliterate the cold and give us March weather. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Tip in the NE forum gave an excellent analysis of how the MJO can vacillate between more or less impactful as a driver of the overall pattern. He definitely said it was not in a “constructive” state as of December. Unsure how that changed moving forward in time, but at least WRT the models it doesn’t seem as if they’re sniffing out any MJO help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Cue Bluewave to explain how MJO doesn't dictate the pattern. We have a firehose pacific jet. That's going to obliterate the cold and give us March weather. Dude it's January 4 The cold and snow chances usually come when the MJO goes into 8-1. Bluewave is a great poster but it doesn't mean he is right . All we need is a slight buckle of the western jet. The mid month storm looks intriguing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Dude it's January 4 The cold and snow chances usually come when the MJO goes into 8-1. Bluewave is a great poster but it doesn't mean he is right . All we need is a slight buckle of the western jet. The mid month storm looks intriguing. No cold air. Would take a perfect track and a perfect phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, ag3 said: No cold air. Would take a perfect track and a perfect phase. No cold air ? Yes this weekend but not going forward. So many foolish people canceling winter on Janaury 4. Every single year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Dude it's January 4 The cold and snow chances usually come when the MJO goes into 8-1. Bluewave is a great poster but it doesn't mean he is right . All we need is a slight buckle of the western jet. The mid month storm looks intriguing. Good luck man. I don't see much. We've had a bunch of day 8-10 threats that have ALL gone poof. PAC jet for the loss not to mention a 3 year nina base state which favors the midwest and rockies. Can it change? Sure, but so far outside of a few days winter has been MIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We have a firehose pacific jet. That's going to obliterate the cold and give us March weather. If that jet runs underneath us we have a better chance at white, or at least frozen, storms rather than wet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Sunny and 57 degrees at 9:39 AM on Jan 4th is pretty wild. It feels like early May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 My local news stated that we may break high temp record set in 1998. Fits the bill as that was another 5 year snowless stretch of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Dude it's January 4 The cold and snow chances usually come when the MJO goes into 8-1. Bluewave is a great poster but it doesn't mean he is right . All we need is a slight buckle of the western jet. The mid month storm looks intriguing. The analysis has been spot on and easily the best on this forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: My local news stated that we may break high temp record set in 1998. Fits the bill as that was another 5 year snowless stretch of winters. Below average yeah but I wouldn't say snowless. Especially 99-2000 which at least most would gladly take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Bluewave has shown how the models have continued to underestimate the raging PAC jet in the long term which is why they tend to show tantalizing individual storms at 7+ days out that quickly fizzle. Until a threat shows at 5-7 days there's really nothing to be excited about unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Below average yeah but I wouldn't say snowless. Especially 99-2000 which at least most would gladly take Yeah I exaggerated a bit, and 00/01 was well above average for snowfall (similar to how 20/21 was above average snowfall). 99/2000 mirrored last year w/r/t snowfall totals. Both 5 year stretches with a couple ratters and 1 good winter each. Personally, 97/98 was my all time low of 3.5 and first snowfall of March. I am at 1.5 so still in the game for an all time low snowfall season. Difference being this year we wasted a golden opportunity while 97/98 was a furnace from day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, romba said: Bluewave has shown how the models have continued to underestimate the raging PAC jet in the long term which is why they tend to show tantalizing individual storms at 7+ days out that quickly fizzle. Until a threat shows at 5-7 days there's really nothing to be excited about unfortunately. Late February and March have shorter wavelengths and volatility, so that would be a target. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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