January 2023

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly cloudy and very mild. High temperatures will reach the lower 50s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 52°

Newark: 54°

Philadelphia: 53°

The mild weather will continue through tomorrow before it turns colder. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 39.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 40.1°; 15-Year: 40.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.4°; 15-Year: 41.6°

[bluewave]

All our major stations will finish January at or near the warmest on record. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	43.9	3
2	1932	42.0	0
3	1990	40.4	0
4	1950	40.3	0
5	1998	40.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	43.2	3
-	1932	43.2	0
2	1950	41.8	2
3	1990	41.4	0
4	2006	40.9	0
5	1913	40.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	43.1	3
2	2006	41.5	0
3	1950	41.2	0
4	1990	41.1	0
5	2002	40.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	41.8	3
2	1950	40.5	0
3	1998	39.6	0
4	1990	39.4	0
5	2006	39.1	0
6	2002	38.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	39.9	3
2	1990	36.9	1
3	2006	36.5	0
4	2017	35.6	1
-	2002	35.6	0
5	1998	35.4	11

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	39.9	3
2	2017	36.9	0
3	1950	36.8	0
4	2020	36.7	0
-	1998	36.7	0
-	1990	36.7	0
5	2006	36.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	41.3	3
2	1998	39.1	0
3	1995	38.0	0
4	1990	37.9	0
5	2002	37.7	0

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through January 28th:

2007 had a couple sleet incidents IIRC....one around VD and one in March, at least in CNJ....both were a few inches, perhaps it wasn't measured right....to date we've had nothing close...also note that it was a few years before big snows returned, and even then they weren't blockbuster events; most of those were south of us ( though we'd kill for 10-12 in events these days ). 2008 and 2009 were still slim pickings, though Monmouth and the shore scored in March 2009. This is about the worst I've personally seen in recent years, though 2020 was really bad too, but I think there was something else going on so no one really cared, I know I didn't.....

[Volcanic Winter]

RGEM has a nice quick hit for everybody, though at the end of its range. I know the NAM isn't great towards the end of it range but I'm not as familiar with the RGEM.

[Franklin0529]

10 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

RGEM has a nice quick hit for everybody, though at the end of its range. I know the NAM isn't great towards the end of it range but I'm not as familiar with the RGEM.

Rgem has been much better then the NAM

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

2007 had a couple sleet incidents IIRC....one around VD and one in March, at least in CNJ....both were a few inches, perhaps it wasn't measured right....to date we've had nothing close...also note that it was a few years before big snows returned, and even then they weren't blockbuster events; most of those were south of us ( though we'd kill for 10-12 in events these days ). 2008 and 2009 were still slim pickings, though Monmouth and the shore scored in March 2009. This is about the worst I've personally seen in recent years, though 2020 was really bad too, but I think there was something else going on so no one really cared, I know I didn't.....

I recall the big sleet storms in 2007. 

[bluewave]

JFK ties for the latest first measurable snowfall.

First/Last Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
1972	03-14 (1972)	1.9	01-29 (1973)	0.8	320
1965	04-02 (1965)	1.4	01-23 (1966)	1.8	295
2006	04-05 (2006)	1.0	01-19 (2007)	0.4	288
1994	03-18 (1994)	2.2	01-11 (1995)	0.1	298
2001	03-26 (2001)	1.7	01-07 (2002)	0.4	286

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I recall the big sleet storms in 2007. 

IIRC there was also an ice storm. So, a more active year than this one....we get stinkers, we're gonna get a lot more. But 2021 wasn't so long ago and last year had a couple events, so who knows. Conditions just aren't coming together this year, and that can and does happen, sometimes for years in a row, even aside from warming, which we know is happening anyway. 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

IIRC there was also an ice storm. So, a more active year than this one....we get stinkers, we're gonna get a lot more. But 2021 wasn't so long ago and last year had a couple events, so who knows. Conditions just aren't coming together this year, and that can and does happen, sometimes for years in a row, even aside from warming, which we know is happening anyway. 

What’s your favorite winter locally? 

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

IIRC there was also an ice storm. So, a more active year than this one....we get stinkers, we're gonna get a lot more. But 2021 wasn't so long ago and last year had a couple events, so who knows. Conditions just aren't coming together this year, and that can and does happen, sometimes for years in a row, even aside from warming, which we know is happening anyway. 

VD had a bit of freezing rain but was mostly a sleet event. St Patrick's day was just about all sleet. There was a minor snow event in March with daytime temps in the teens

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

JFK ties for the latest first measurable snowfall.

First/Last Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
1972	03-14 (1972)	1.9	01-29 (1973)	0.8	320
1965	04-02 (1965)	1.4	01-23 (1966)	1.8	295
2006	04-05 (2006)	1.0	01-19 (2007)	0.4	288
1994	03-18 (1994)	2.2	01-11 (1995)	0.1	298
2001	03-26 (2001)	1.7	01-07 (2002)	0.4	286

As does Central Park.

[Winterweatherlover]

RGEM consistent showing snow Tue night-Wed morning. 

[winterwx21]

15 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

RGEM consistent showing snow Tue night-Wed morning. 

Yep it's showing a nice little 1 to 3 inch snow event. NAM and GFS don't have it, but RGEM has been the best model this winter so that gives us some hope. Hopefully our snow drought finally ends tuesday night, but we need to see some other models come aboard. 

[Winterweatherlover]

10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep it's showing a nice little 1 to 3 inch snow event. NAM and GFS don't have it, but RGEM has been the best model this winter so that gives us some hope. Hopefully our snow drought finally ends tuesday night, but we need to see some other models come aboard. 

CMC has it too. Let’s hope the Canadian models are right this time around. 

[Volcanic Winter]

I’ll make poutine in celebration if they end up right. Nice broad area hit, we need this. 

[vegan_edible]

definitely trust canadians more than americans... lets hope they get this one right and we'll all make some poutine and pray of universal healthcare 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

What’s your favorite winter locally? 

94....came after a decade of crap winters, took everyone by surprise, and no one had snowblowers that still worked...and there were not enough Home Depots around to buy one, and no such thing as online orders....by 96 most of us were ready, but not for something that big....it was back to snowless for a half decade afterwards.

[EastonSN+]

For all those not alive or too Young, this was 97/98.

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

94....came after a decade of crap winters, took everyone by surprise, and no one had snowblowers that still worked...and there were not enough Home Depots around to buy one, and no such thing as online orders....by 96 most of us were ready, but not for something that big....it was back to snowless for a half decade afterwards.

I remember riding shotgun as a young boy as my father plowed snow that winter. We did the office building with the big 9 on it off rt1 by turnpike in Woodbridge. Many hours were spent there that winter. 
 

What has been your favorite winter since 2000? 13/14 and 14/15 are probably my favorites 

[HeadInTheClouds]

44 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

94....came after a decade of crap winters, took everyone by surprise, and no one had snowblowers that still worked...and there were not enough Home Depots around to buy one, and no such thing as online orders....by 96 most of us were ready, but not for something that big....it was back to snowless for a half decade afterwards.

93-94 was an amazing winter in the mid HV for cold and snow lovers. I just remember it being sold damn cold and it never stopped snowing. I remember battling ice dams on my roof because of the snow and cold. I got as cold as -22 that winter. 

[weatherpruf]

45 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I remember riding shotgun as a young boy as my father plowed snow that winter. We did the office building with the big 9 on it off rt1 by turnpike in Woodbridge. Many hours were spent there that winter. 
 

What has been your favorite winter since 2000? 13/14 and 14/15 are probably my favorites 

I believe that was the Wilentz building, which is close to royalty in NJ....I'd take 2013-14, lots of nice events, but no blockbusters; 2015 had many piddly events of 3-5 inches and a lot of rain mixes. 2011 loses out because it was over in Jan, but what a time it was.....two big blockbusters. 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

For all those not alive or too Young, this was 97/98.

So far out I wasn't even going to bother posting but that would be the icing on the cake for this winter to have a 977 low in that spot and it's pouring rain.

[Winterweatherlover]

Euro not on board for Tue night-Wed.

Only the RGEM/CMC have it but right now I trust those models more than any others so hopefully they don't let us down. 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

So far out I wasn't even going to bother posting but that would be the icing on the cake for this winter to have a 977 low in that spot and it's pouring rain.

And after single digit lows. 

I remember we had a LOT of storms with perfect tracks which were all rain in 97/98. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

And after single digit lows. 

I remember we had a LOT of storms with perfect tracks which were all rain in 97/98. 

977 is pretty extreme, maybe I'm naive but I think if it was really that strong on a perfect track we'd flip to snow.  

[EastonSN+]

Protect the pipes.

[MANDA]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Protect the pipes.

For sure.  It has backed off the hyper extreme readings of the last few cycles.  Believe these numbers or even a tad higher will be closer to reality. Especially without a snow cover.

[winterwx21]

13 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Euro not on board for Tue night-Wed.

Only the RGEM/CMC have it but right now I trust those models more than any others so hopefully they don't let us down. 

UKMET also shows a little snow tuesday night into wednesday morning. About an inch just south of the city. Hopefully some other models will come aboard soon. 

Euro also misses us to the south with thursday's wave. We have 2 waves to watch ... hopefully one of them will come far enough north to end our snow drought. This winter has been so horrible that getting a little 1 to 2 inch snow event would excite me. 

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

UKMET also shows a little snow tuesday night into wednesday morning. About an inch just south of the city. Hopefully some other models will come aboard soon. 

Euro also misses us to the south with thursday's wave. We have 2 waves to watch ... hopefully one of them will come far enough north to end our snow drought. This winter has been so horrible that getting a little 1 to 2 inch snow event would excite me. 

Especially with the cold coming over the weekend having even a few inches on the ground for a few days would really be nicer than having brutally cold and nothing. 

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

93-94 was an amazing winter in the mid HV for cold and snow lovers. I just remember it being sold damn cold and it never stopped snowing. I remember battling ice dams on my roof because of the snow and cold. I got as cold as -22 that winter. 

 

47 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I believe that was the Wilentz building, which is close to royalty in NJ....I'd take 2013-14, lots of nice events, but no blockbusters; 2015 had many piddly events of 3-5 inches and a lot of rain mixes. 2011 loses out because it was over in Jan, but what a time it was.....two big blockbusters. 

93–94 and 95–96 were great winters for different reasons.  93–94 came after a multi-year crap fest and had it all: sustained cold, snow, and even a true ice storm.  95–96 was just incredible because of the sheer amount of snowfall right down to the coast.  
 

I’m a bit of a retention snob though so, for me, the 13–14 and 14–15 stretches were even better than those.  We saw one snowstorm (in early ‘14 I think) with temps in the single digits.  There were some solid, almost tundra-like conditions that lasted weeks at a time.  Waterways frozen, snow that just blew around from place to place and refused to melt, and weeks of single-digit lows.  Been awhile since we’ve seen that kind of “deep winter” now.  Would love another stretch like that!