EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly. We need a full scale PV disruption to shake things up if we want to see a snow pattern. It’s not impossible but we could just stay like this the rest of the winter for a 11/12 type scenario. IMO if this pattern persists it will be far more disappointing than 11/12. We did not strike out in a good pattern like this past December, and we had a 4 to 8 inch snowstorm January 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2012/21-Jan-12.html Lol Eastern LI again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Time to track the mid month coastal . Nothing else at the moment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: If we want to be snowfall optimistic, just think that if December 2020 failed like this last December, then we would be in the exact same boat statistically (i.e Decembers with no accumulating snow) and that historic February would have still occurred. That's why while helpful, statistics do not always tell the full story. Same could be said about the December 2000 storm to a certain extent. Sure we may get shut out the rest of the way, but I doubt it. getting shut out is tough...even the awful winter of 97-98 had a surprise 5 inch slopstorm in late march to ruin the futility record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: getting shut out is tough...even the awful winter of 97-98 had a surprise 5 inch slopstorm in late march to ruin the futility record... 19/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: 19/20 I got less than 2 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 This feels like a winter where the east coast will get 1 huge snowstorm and that's it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Given the active train of waves, I’m still thinking we’ll avoid a complete shutout. It’s the only thing keeping us even slightly in the game right now it looks like. Regardless, seems unavoidable that we’ll be sweating temps unless something really comes together perfectly, but at least there’s stuff to watch. Small victories? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: I got less than 2 inches sounds like a personal problem. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: 19/20 I think I had 5 or 6 inches in that winter-one storm around 1/20 or so which seems to be the norm is real bad winters like 01-02, 11-12, etc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This feels like a winter where the east coast will get 1 huge snowstorm and that's it. 94/95. One massive snowstorm in early February. Complete shut out otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I got less than 2 inches How much did you get in the November storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 This monster. If it missed would have been our only completely perfect game. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1995/04-Feb-95.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How much did you get in the November storm? Barely anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 35 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Let me confuse things. PS JB sleeps with the CFSv2 and never saw a pattern that did not remind him of another pattern. He says this will happen: Almost certainly, the RRWT map will be wrong. It frequently dumps the Northern Hemisphere's cold into North America. Its current 6-10 day outlook provides a good illustration of that tendency. The 6-10 day period will likely be cooler than the first week of January, but there remains little support for a cold outcome. The EPS and GEFS are in very strong agreement that temperatures will descend closer to normal but the overall 6-10 day period will be warmer than normal. I suspect that the problem with the RRWT tool is that it treats all Rossby Waves alike. Instead, origin and duration matter. From a recent paper: Higher than normal medium-range skill scores are often associated with the presence of long-lasting RWPs (about 8 days) in the initial conditions, very often triggered far away in the west Pacific (RWP_pac_eu). Bad medium-range skill scores are instead associated with shorter RWPs coming from central US or the west Atlantic. The analysis of probabilistic skill scores also supports an increase in predictive skill associated with long RWPs coming from the west Pacific, even at longer ranges, with better skill up to week 3, suggesting a possible link with MJO events. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 46 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I got less than 2 inches 45 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: sounds like a personal problem. Good morning Anthony, Snowlover11. Not for another 50 years, at which time measurement outcome is cautionary. As always…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 December featured the 2nd strongest Greenland blocking at 500mb just behind 2010. The previous 2nd strongest was 1978. This is the first time such strong Greenland blocking became so south based and linked up with the SE Ridge at times. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 The nam had less than a tenth of an inch of rain today. I'm already at .2 with quite a bit to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: The nam had less than a tenth of an inch of rain today. I'm already at .2 with quite a bit to go even in january the models are too far north with convective rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: This feels like a winter where the east coast will get 1 huge snowstorm and that's it. That would be a win in these circumstances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: 94/95. One massive snowstorm in early February. Complete shut out otherwise. I wouldn't call it massive. At least not in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I wouldn't call it massive. At least not in these parts. You had a foot of snow lol…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Pouring, and 52 in brightwaters. Yay winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 57 on my Tempest (TR / Manchester border), 49 up at work (Hillside) currently. Barf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Pouring on the uws. We like likely beat qpf. Not a shocker… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 storms next week to watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Pouring on the uws. We like likely beat qpf. Not a shocker… Models failed on the overrunning shooting north of us. Pouring here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 storms next week to watch?Too soon. I’m going to sound like an old man, but they don’t know. Once they’re within five days, then I’m piqued.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Imagine if we waste a strong Neg AO AND a January MJO phase 8/1 in the same season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 .35 inches of rain so far and 50 degrees at my station....early November weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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