January 2023

[donsutherland1]

Today was New York City's 32nd consecutive warmer than normal day. That broke the all-time record of 31 days, which was set during December 10, 2006 through January 9, 2007. All two cases with 30 consecutive such days have occurred since 2000. One-third of streaks of 20 or more such days have occurred since 2000.

Tomorrow and Monday will be mild days. However, colder air will begin to return to the region late Monday.

New York City will see its latest ever first measurable snowfall of the season. The existing record of January 29th was set in 1973. It is likely that New York City will get through all of January without a measurable snowfall.

A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. Saturday could be the coldest day with the temperature rising only into the lower or middle 20s with a low temperature in the low teens in New York City and single digits outside the City. The onset of this cooler period might afford some opportunities for snowfall, but a snowy outcome remains far from certain. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur during the second week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +8.63 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.991 today.

On January 26 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.937 (RMM). The January 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.958 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.7° (9.0° above normal). That will rank January 2023 as the second warmest January on record.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was New York City's 32nd consecutive warmer than normal day. That broke the all-time record of 31 days, which was set during December 10, 2006 through January 9, 2007. All two cases with 30 consecutive such days have occurred since 2000. One-third of streaks of 20 or more such days have occurred since 2000.

Tomorrow and Monday will be mild days. However, colder air will begin to return to the region late Monday.

New York City will see its latest ever first measurable snowfall of the season. The existing record of January 29th was set in 1973. It is likely that New York City will get through all of January without a measurable snowfall.

A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. Saturday could be the coldest day with the temperature rising only into the lower or middle 20s with a low temperature in the low teens in New York City and single digits outside the City. The onset of this cooler period might afford some opportunities for snowfall, but a snowy outcome remains far from certain. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur during the second week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +8.63 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.991 today.

On January 26 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.937 (RMM). The January 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.958 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.7° (9.0° above normal). That will rank January 2023 as the second warmest January on record.

 

Hopefully we can beat 1932, I dont want this to be another one of those months where a fake 31st day keeps us from the record.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep it just hit 54 here. 

First of three straight 50+ days.  It got to 55 here.  Hopefully we build enough of an advantage over 1932 to insure against the closer to average temps on Tuesday. (It will still average above normal because of overnight lows.)

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, I'm just having some fun. So very much goes into it. I'm becoming more and more of a believer that the PDO plays a tremendous role too. The more I read about that in updated research. Same idea with the gradients. I feel like this was a major factor in 95-96 TBH. La nina, but positive PDO that year. I think that helped us out. Quite rare to see that with la nina. 

la ninas after el ninos are our snowiest and coldest winters, the same thing happened in 10-11 too

 

[mannynyc]

The NAM is drunk again.

[donsutherland1]

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hopefully we can beat 1932, I dont want this to be another one of those months where a fake 31st day keeps us from the record.

 

I believe the 31st will deny us the record.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe the 31st will deny us the record.

That would be sad....I saw the locals have us hitting 40 on Tuesday and the cold air doesn't really drive in until Tuesday night.  For example, Tuesday morning is still in the mid 30s and above freezing.

I know you know my position on the 31st day....months shouldn't have them, it fouls up the data record because months can't be compared mathematically to each other if some have more days than others.   And for some unexplained reason February only has 28 days which really fouls up comparisons to other months.  I would give February 30 days and then the first four months of the year would all have 30 days, which would make it a more level playing field at least.

 

[North and West]

That would be sad....I saw the locals have us hitting 40 on Tuesday and the cold air doesn't really drive in until Tuesday night.  For example, Tuesday morning is still in the mid 30s and above freezing.
I know you know my position on the 31st day....months shouldn't have them, it fouls up the data record because months can't be compared mathematically to each other if some have more days than others.   And for some unexplained reason February only has 28 days which really fouls up comparisons to other months.  I would give February 30 days and then the first four months of the year would all have 30 days, which would make it a more level playing field at least.
 

Make February Gain Again


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[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

Make February Gain Again


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Exactly!

 

Especially since January seems to suck now!

 

[vegan_edible]

so... who here thinks we have a chance to see some snow this week? these models cant be trusted

[North and West]

so... who here thinks we have a chance to see some snow this week? these models cant be trusted

I don’t. I’m going with my gut on this.


.

[mattinpa]

18 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

so... who here thinks we have a chance to see some snow this week? these models cant be trusted

I do. Though I tend to be optimistic. 

[LibertyBell]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Fixed_Calendar

 

I like this calendar, it's well balanced....13 months of 28 days each.  So as balanced as a calendar can get... of course you have to add an extra day in the last month to get to 365 days (and two extra days in the last month for leap years.)  The funny thing is that every month would have a Friday in the 13th....that would sure make things interesting!

 

 

[mattinpa]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Fixed_Calendar

 

I like this calendar, it's well balanced....13 months of 28 days each.  So as balanced as a calendar can get... of course you have to add an extra day in the last month to get to 365 days (and two extra days in the last month for leap years.) 

 

February having 28 days in non leap years always bothered me. Yes there are 31 days in Dec and Jan - but Dec is not our peak snow season.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

February having 28 days in non leap years always bothered me. Yes there are 31 days in Dec and Jan - but Dec is not our peak snow season.

Apparently this goes back to the ancient Romans...yet another "tradition" from a dead ancient culture we need to get rid of.

I also like this one

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Calendar

The World Calendar is a 12-month, perennial calendar with equal quarters.[1]

Each quarter begins on a Sunday and ends on a Saturday. The quarters are equal: each has exactly 91 days, 13 weeks, or 3 months. The three months in each quarter have 31, 30, and 30 days respectively. Each quarter begins with the 31-day months of January, April, July, or October.

The World Calendar also has the following two additional days to maintain the same new year days as the Gregorian calendar.

Worldsday

The last day of the year following Saturday 30 December. This additional day is dated "W" and named Worldsday, a year-end world holiday. It is followed by Sunday, 1 January in the new year.

Leapyear Day

This day is similarly added at the end of the second quarter in leap years. It is also dated "W" and named Leapyear Day. It is followed by Sunday, 1 July within the same year.

The World Calendar treats Worldsday and Leapyear Day as a 24-hour waiting period before resuming the calendar again. These off-calendar days, also known as "intercalary days", are not assigned weekday designations. They are intended to be treated as holidays.

[North and West]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Fixed_Calendar
 
I like this calendar, it's well balanced....13 months of 28 days each.  So as balanced as a calendar can get... of course you have to add an extra day in the last month to get to 365 days (and two extra days in the last month for leap years.)  The funny thing is that every month would have a Friday in the 13th....that would sure make things interesting!
 
 

I am going down a rabbit hole on calendar history. Sounds like the kind of Saturday Night I had as a teenager.




.

[forkyfork]

when was the last day with full sun from rise to set? 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

I am going down a rabbit hole on calendar history. Sounds like the kind of Saturday Night I had as a teenager.




.

lmao I've been doing that too-- this is awesome a lot better than looking for fictitious snowstorms that will probably not happen =\

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

when was the last day with full sun from rise to set? 

I thought it was today?

 

[forkyfork]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I thought it was today?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

Wow I worked outside today and it never got cloudy here at all, and hit 55 around 2 PM.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, North and West said:

I am going down a rabbit hole on calendar history. Sounds like the kind of Saturday Night I had as a teenager.




.

This calendar might be the least disruptive and comes closest to the one I came up with.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanke–Henry_Permanent_Calendar

 

It preserves 7 day weeks, anniversaries, holidays, etc.

 

While many calendar reforms aim to make the calendar more accurate, the Hanke–Henry Permanent Calendar focuses on making the calendar perennial, so that every date falls on the same day of the week, year after year.[4] The familiar drift of weekdays concerning dates results from the fact that the number of days in a physical year (one full orbit of Earth around the Sun, approximately 365.24 days) is not a multiple of seven. By reducing common years to 364 days (52 weeks), and adding an extra week every five or six years, the Hanke–Henry Permanent Calendar eliminates weekday drift and synchronizes the calendar year with the seasonal change as the Earth circles the Sun. The leap week known as "Extra", occurs every year that either begins (dominical letters D, DC) or ends (D, ED) in a Thursday on the corresponding Gregorian calendar, and falls between the end of December and the beginning of January.[4] Thus, each year always begins between December 29 and January 4 in the Gregorian calendar. This is effectively the same rule as in ISO week dates.

Under the Hanke–Henry Permanent Calendar January, February, April, May, July, August, October, and November have thirty days, while March, June, September, and December have thirty-one so that each quarter contains two 30-day months followed by one month of 31 days (30:30:31). While the Hanke–Henry Permanent Calendar changes the length of the months, the week and days remain the same.[5]

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

when was the last day with full sun from rise to set? 

We live in Seattle

[North and West]

This calendar might be the least disruptive and comes closest to the one I came up with.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanke–Henry_Permanent_Calendar
 
It preserves 7 day weeks, anniversaries, holidays, etc.
 
While many calendar reforms aim to make the calendar more accurate, the Hanke–Henry Permanent Calendar focuses on making the calendar perennial, so that every date falls on the same day of the week, year after year.[4] The familiar drift of weekdays concerning dates results from the fact that the number of days in a physical year (one full orbit of Earth around the Sun, approximately 365.24 days) is not a multiple of seven. By reducing common years to 364 days (52 weeks), and adding an extra week every five or six years, the Hanke–Henry Permanent Calendar eliminates weekday drift and synchronizes the calendar year with the seasonal change as the Earth circles the Sun. The leap week known as "Extra", occurs every year that either begins (dominical letters D, DC) or ends (D, ED) in a Thursday on the corresponding Gregorian calendar, and falls between the end of December and the beginning of January.[4] Thus, each year always begins between December 29 and January 4 in the Gregorian calendar. This is effectively the same rule as in ISO week dates.
Under the Hanke–Henry Permanent Calendar January, February, April, May, July, August, October, and November have thirty days, while March, June, September, and December have thirty-one so that each quarter contains two 30-day months followed by one month of 31 days (30:30:31). While the Hanke–Henry Permanent Calendar changes the length of the months, the week and days remain the same.[5]

I like this. I don’t like Christmas on a weekend. I want my holidays on weekdays to maximize time off.


.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

I like this. I don’t like Christmas on a weekend. I want my holidays on weekdays to maximize time off.


.

I like it too and it preserves religious sabbaths which the other ones didn't.  From what I read about the other ones, the UN considered adopting them back in the 50s but the US was the one who always objected because of strong opposition (to the point of threatening to remove the organization's tax exempt status-- oh the irony, since religious organizations get carte blanche on that lol) of religious leaders who wanted their sabbath to remain on the same day every week (and the last one is the only one that preserves that-- since it adds an entire leap week every 7 years or so rather than a day or two at the end of the year that are considered holidays and not assigned to any day of the week.)

 

[tmagan]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Hopefully we can beat 1932, I dont want this to be another one of those months where a fake 31st day keeps us from the record.

 

Keep in mind January of 1932 would have been warmer if not for the last day of the month.

[Stormlover74]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We live in Seattle

No, it snows there

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Keep in mind January of 1932 would have been warmer if not for the last day of the month.

How much though? I didn't see an arctic shot coming in on the "last day" of the month in 1932

Do you have access to the high low split of that day, thanks in advance if you do.

Keep in mind I believe that day will be near normal as the real cold air doesn't look to come in until Tuesday night.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No, it snows there

Can't say Dublin or London since it snows there too lol.

 

[donsutherland1]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How much though? I didn't see an arctic shot coming in on the "last day" of the month in 1932

Do you have access to the high low split of that day, thanks in advance if you do.

Keep in mind I believe that day will be near normal as the real cold air doesn't look to come in until Tuesday night.

 

The split was 33-24.