January 2023

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

We are on the east side of the northern stream low so flexes the SE ridge. That is normal in a la Nina with no strong blocking.

it depends, there have been some super cold la ninas in the past, some of our snowiest winters were la ninas

I wouldn't be hoping for a weak el nino-- those behave like neutrals at our latitude, if you want an el nino hope for a high moderate or a strong one.

weak el ninos are better for new england (moreso now).

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it depends, there have been some super cold la ninas in the past, some of our snowiest winters were la ninas

 

Yes but the difference is strong, well placed blocking. La Nina with no blocking is horrendous for snow here.

The NAO has not been negative since December 15.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yes but the difference is strong, well placed blocking. La Nina with no blocking is horrendous for snow here.

The NAO has not been negative since December 15.

 

Yes the best la ninas are the ones that come after el ninos.

I wouldn't be hoping for a weak el nino-- those behave like neutrals at our latitude, if you want an el nino hope for a high moderate or a strong one.

weak el ninos are better for new england (moreso now).

People point to 1977-78 but that was a very special case of a second year weak el nino and so behaved much more like a moderate el nino.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Does that mean our toilettes will flush the other way like Australia now?

Maybe that's why the magnetic pole is in the process of flipping?

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Ugly.........

Cold is from Wednesday to Friday with no freezing or below lows until February 1st.
 

I actually think those temps are somewhat underdone, we'll probably see three straight 50+ temps (this weekend and Monday.)

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The reason I keep saying that CC is a plus on top of an already crappy pattern is because this winter’s pattern would suck no matter what year. It’s been a rampaging Pacific along with the steep SE Ridge. “Another year” would be +7 or 8 January not +10 but it’s been constantly cold in the northern Plains and NW for several winters. Seattle has more snow than Boston this winter. Part of this to me is the rubber band snapping back and we can’t bank on blockbuster winters like we had last decade. Where CC might really contribute though is reinforcing certain patterns like these where the warm Atlantic reinforces the SE Ridge and warm western Pacific reinforces a Nina atmospheric state. More research needs to be done on that. In the summer it seems to reinforce our increasing humidity on a southerly flow vs more hot 95+ degree days on a westerly wind. The ridge becoming steeper causes the Bermuda High to move north and it becomes more Florida like here while the worst of the heat shoots over into New England. 

Yes that sucks as I love hot dry weather vs very warm humid weather.  I think humanity won't stand by and we'll probably have some climate engineering projects underway in the next few decades to try to fix some of these issues with much warmer waters and deviating ocean currents, etc.

Another much serious issue that hasn't been mentioned much is the horrible severe weather season in the south which now seems to be year round.  The severe weather season has actually shifted from Oklahoma and Texas to Dixie Alley where tornadoes are much more frequent now and a year round severe weather season.

 

[Roger Smith]

The NMP is moving rapidly west at high latitudes (around 86 N) and is now north of Wrangel Island in northeast Siberia. In the 1990s it was back around the northwest arctic islands of Canada. (when first reliably located in 1840, it was on the northern Canadian mainland; it drifted NNW rather slowly to 1950 and then began to accelerate gradually) ...

There is no longer any northerly component to its forward motion, after a period of WNW movement it became due west and begins to look more like WSW in coming years, moving slowly back to lower latitudes.

Also the magnetic field is slowly weakening. But I don't think there is any expert consensus on it "flipping" if by that you mean reversing polarity. That could happen in the distant future but I wouldn't expect it in the 21st century. The NMP could end up somewhere around the northern part of west Siberia or even Novaya Zemlya or Franz Josef Land, within a few decades. As significant as the change in magnetic north has already been, that would really add to the displacement. 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In New York City, winters are warming, the measurable snow season is shrinking in length, and the average number of events is falling. However, the benefits of added moisture (warm air holds more moisture) has contributed to rising seasonal snowfall as the average event is now larger. There will come a time when the warming is sufficiently great to offset the benefits of added moisture. That process is underway in Washington, DC, but not Philadelphia or New York. It could be another decade or two before such a trend develops in Philadelphia and New York City (an additional 1.0°-1.5° of winter warming is likely needed if Washington's data is representative).

As we move toward that inflection point, one will probably see greater variability between high snow and very low snowfall winters, the latter will often be exceptionally warm even against the 1991-2020 reference period.

We're also going to see more and more winters which have one snowfall defining the majority of the snowfall season.  This usually only happened in strong el ninos, but we see it more in other enso winters too (like 2005-06).  Milder with one dominant snowfall will probably comprise at least one third of our snowfall seasons going forward.

It already feels like the south shore of Long Island has become like Norfolk and Virginia Beach.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, WX-PA said:

Don't think so..When you deal with averages, everything balances out..The last 2 decades was not the climate for NY Metro..it was too snowy. This isn't the climate either..it's somewhere in the middle. There will be snowy, cold winters again..From 1972-1977 it didn't snow in this area. The same from 1983-1992..I went through those times, we celebrated a 3 inch snowstorm.

There is no such thing as "average"  the climate has and will always be a moving target.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Cold is from Wednesday to Friday with no freezing or below lows until February 1st.
 

 

UHI in NYC is insane sometimes. Way worse than I ever realized. 

I’m already at 27F right now 47 miles due south: 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Exactly!

The end of above average snowfall winters will occur once we stop seeing snow in Raleigh/Norfolk/Delmarva IMO.

The 2nd storm looks like it will hit the Delmarva once again. 

How ANYONE can definitely claim the end of winters as we know it is beyond me.

Could it be true? Sure, why can't we wait a few more years to make a claim? I mean we have had multiple 5 year snowless stretches before, so CURRENTLY this stretch is not new.

For me, the 90s are the Benchmark for futility. If we go 10 years with less than 2 average to above average snowfall winters I will admit we are in real trouble (snowfall wise). So starting with Dec 2019, including this year, we are 4 below and 1 above. Let's see what the next five bring.

 

It's not that simple though.  You can still see renegade snowstorms anywhere (even the deep south) while still getting below average snowfall winters everywhere...as a matter of fact some of our worst winters had snowfall in that area like 1972-73, 2001-02, etc.  A snowfall track down there is actually more common than it is here in certain patterns.  

The 80s were MUCH worse than the 90s trust me.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, North and West said:

I know I’ll get beaten for saying this, but I think that’s overdramatic. Yes; it’s getting warmer, it’s just math. The world isn’t ending. It will snow again.


.

Even if snowfall ends, the world won't end.

Also, even if humanity ends, the world won't end.

To be honest, the world would probably be far better off without humanity.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Will see if Tue the 31st is the first and only below avg day this month at EWR/ NYC.  Will be clsoe.  Feb should open with 3-4 below avg days, first since Christmas week.

Hopefully not.  January shouldn't have 31 days anyway so that's really "fake January"  But I see the cold holding off until Tuesday night so actually February 1st.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We’ve also seen that we either have blockbusters or total bust winters, very few in between. Last year was an anomaly where I just about hit average on the nose but it was off one very big and one significant snow event. Climate change probably would reinforce the big snow or no patterns because of the warmer waters/more contrast fueling the blizzards and years like this fueling the massive SE ridge and constant warmth. The climate change fueled marine heatwaves will also change how Nino/Nina patterns develop because the hot western Pacific for example is enhancing the Nina background state. 

It's actually exciting in a sense because it's much more unpredictable.

I hope we have a few snowy winters in there too along with hot dry summers.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

On the other hand there's this quote from the baseball player Bill "Spaceman" Lee from years ago:

"I think about the cosmic snowball theory. A few million years from now the sun will burn out and lose its gravitational pull. The earth will turn into a giant snowball and be hurled through space. When that happens it won't matter if I get this guy out."

Before that happens the sun will expand and engulf the earth so there really will be no earth left to hurl through space.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Starting to look like 2013 to 2018 was our snowfall peak before the decline began in 2019. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.0	0.8	3.5	14.2	12.2	8.0	0.9	39.6
2017-2018	0.0	T	7.7	11.2	4.9	11.6	5.5	40.9
2016-2017	0.0	T	3.2	7.9	9.4	9.7	0.0	30.2
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	27.9	4.0	0.9	T	32.8
2014-2015	0.0	0.2	1.0	16.9	13.6	18.6	0.0	50.3
2013-2014	0.0	T	8.6	19.7	29.0	0.1	T	57.4
2012-2013	0.0	4.7	0.4	1.5	12.2	7.3	0.0	26.1

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.0	1.3	2.6	4.2	7.7	2.7	T	16.4
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	M	M	M	T
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8
2018-2019	0.0	6.4	T	1.1	2.6	10.4	0.0	20.5

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	T	0.8	3.1	19.9	16.4	12.5	0.8	53.5
2017-2018	0.0	T	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	4.6	65.9
2016-2017	T	T	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	T	39.3
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	24.8	13.2	3.2	0.2	41.4
2014-2015	0.0	T	0.4	30.2	13.4	19.7	0.0	63.7
2013-2014	0.0	0.3	8.1	25.2	24.5	5.4	0.2	63.7
2012-2013	0.0	4.2	0.6	3.3	31.4	7.4	0.0	46.9

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	T	0.9	2.5	7.3	7.9	1.4	T	18.1
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	0.4	T	M	M	M	0.4
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.3	31.8	3.3	1.6	0.0	37.0
2020-2021	T	0.0	7.5	1.1	24.9	T	T	33.5
2019-2020	0.0	0.1	4.2	2.5	0.0	T	T	6.8
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	12.8

Chris do you have the peak for JFK in there too?

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

And it's not like it's been super hot, where we had days of 70s etc.  It just hasn't been cold.  Down in DC it feels like a typical winter in maybe Charlotte, NC.  Lows  35-40, highs in the low 50s.  Actually pretty unsettling tbh.

Reminds you of Dec 2015 doesn't it?

 

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes that sucks as I love hot dry weather vs very warm humid weather.  I think humanity won't stand by and we'll probably have some climate engineering projects underway in the next few decades to try to fix some of these issues with much warmer waters and deviating ocean currents, etc.

Another much serious issue that hasn't been mentioned much is the horrible severe weather season in the south which now seems to be year round.  The severe weather season has actually shifted from Oklahoma and Texas to Dixie Alley where tornadoes are much more frequent now and a year round severe weather season.

 

Yup. The climate is an incredibly complex and dynamic system that our modeling, good as it is can’t capture the nuances of in local regions. Unfortunately our kids/grandkids etc will have to find out those consequences. 

What’s pretty clear for our region is that we’re becoming more Carolina like-higher humidity in summer vs hotter temps, and likely more hurricane threats.  Winters (down the road) will become more like the VA Tidewater (even Norfolk averages 6” snow a year lol). 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yup. The climate is an incredibly complex and dynamic system that our modeling, good as it is can’t capture the nuances of in local regions. Unfortunately our kids/grandkids etc will have to find out those consequences. 

What’s pretty clear for our region is that we’re becoming more Carolina like-higher humidity in summer vs hotter temps, and likely more hurricane threats.  Winters (down the road) will become more like the VA Tidewater (even Norfolk averages 6” snow a year lol). 

I got alerted to that the year you were in Austin.... JFK became only the second place on the east coast to get 40 inches of snow in a winter that averaged 40 F for the entire winter.  The other place....Norfolk Virginia lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

UHI in NYC is insane sometimes. Way worse than I ever realized. 

I’m already at 27F right now 47 miles due south: 

Hopefully that target to greenify the city (30% green by 2030), rooftop gardening and urban farming helps with that as there are some real health issues associated with UHI (and with processed food.)

Our first freeze doesn't happen until later November now-- that's like Atlanta or worse lol.

 

[jm1220]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I got alerted to that the year you were in Austin.... JFK became only the second place on the east coast to get 40 inches of snow in a winter that averaged 40 F for the entire winter.  The other place....Norfolk Virginia lol.

 

After the 1/23/16 blizzard I missed, I did happen to be in town for when it hit-1.  

[pazzo83]

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Reminds you of Dec 2015 doesn't it?

 

it's just... mild.  Like, you walk outside, and it doesn't feel that cold.  It's not like it's been 70+ (although we've had 6 days of 60s this month in DC).  I think you are seeing the same thing in the urban areas all up and down I-95.  There just isn't much cold air around, so at night, the UHI basically dominates.  Sure, your typical areas will get their radiational cooling.  But we're talking 20s at night - not exactly frigid.

I think the most disconcerting thing is that literally after a frontal passage, it STILL struggles to get below freezing.  WTF?

[pazzo83]

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

After the 1/23/16 blizzard I missed, I did happen to be in town for when it hit-1.  

again... weirdest winter ever.  Basically pretty warm wire-to-wire, but the biggest snowfall in NYC history and the coldest temp in 22 years.  Sure.

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

it's just... mild.  Like, you walk outside, and it doesn't feel that cold.  It's not like it's been 70+ (although we've had 6 days of 60s this month in DC).  I think you are seeing the same thing in the urban areas all up and down I-95.  There just isn't much cold air around, so at night, the UHI basically dominates.  Sure, your typical areas will get their radiational cooling.  But we're talking 20s at night - not exactly frigid.

I think the most disconcerting thing is that literally after a frontal passage, it STILL struggles to get below freezing.  WTF?

I know!  It's like an endless Fall that never truly became winter outside of a 4 day stretch of dry and cold in late December...maybe not even like Fall...more like Spring?

I've seen early Aprils that were colder than this! =\

 

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

again... weirdest winter ever.  Basically pretty warm wire-to-wire, but the biggest snowfall in NYC history and the coldest temp in 22 years.  Sure.

Fun for extremes but outside of the 30" snowfall and the -1 winter didn't really happen lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

After the 1/23/16 blizzard I missed, I did happen to be in town for when it hit-1.  

Yep and on bare ground too, that really was one weird winter.

We did have a couple of other minor snow events, one around superbowl weekend and the other one was when the big crane fell in Manhattan...but those basically sideswiped us.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

This is really fascinating to me, I'm actually down to 24F right now and temp is still falling. I knew I'm "near" the Pine barrens but didn't realize I'm technically on the border of it, as per the map here I'm right on the northeast line:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_Pine_Barrens

Also didn't realize, according to this lows can be up to 10f lower than surrounding areas. That seems absolutely nuts to me but in line with what I've been noticing on certain nights comparing my Tempest to other locations around the state.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

This is really fascinating to me, I'm actually down to 24F right now and temp is still falling. I knew I'm "near" the Pine barrens but didn't realize I'm technically on the border of it, as per the map here I'm right on the northeast line:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_Pine_Barrens

Also didn't realize, according to this lows can be up to 10f lower than surrounding areas. That seems absolutely nuts to me but in line with what I've been noticing on certain nights comparing my Tempest to other locations around the state.

It's fascinating similar things happen near Westhampton and Martha's Vineyard.

But the Jersey Pine Barrens do have the and only Jersey Devil ;-)

 

[Volcanic Winter]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's fascinating similar things happen near Westhampton and Martha's Vineyard.

But the Jersey Pine Barrens do have the and only Jersey Devil ;-)

 

Was just reading there are two other “pine barrens” in LI and MA, that’s very cool. Somehow I’ve lived down here for ten years and never really paid much mind or given much thought to it, but always felt it got a little ‘extra’ chilly here at night. 

Regarding the Jersey Devil, I grew up in central Monmouth and have fun memories playing in the woods with friends as a kid hunting the Jersey Devil. We’d tell each other crazy stories and go out at night and especially around Halloween. I remember one time someone deliberately threw a black garbage bag up in a tree deep in the woods to scare the crap out of us .

Ahh, good times. 

Now let’s get some damn snow, eh? Finally my local forecast app doesn’t read like November beyond the next few days…

[vegan_edible]

GFS is playing games with this every other model showing snow BS. I hope the Euro stays a little more consistent. The GEM is calling for something moving through Tuesday, this cold is our best window for something I'm hoping it pans out in our favor