January 2023

[EastonSN+]

Wasn't the 2000s snowier than the 2010s?

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

What I imagine Bluewave is like away from his computer:

 

The funny thing is that math was my least favorite subject back in school. But I have always been fascinated by all types of patterns in nature. So this interest in weather and climate statistics is more recent. 

[EasternLI]

So 1918 seems to be another very interesting case actually. If others are interested, like I was. I only recently stumbled upon the NOAA enso reconstruction dataset. So I've been browsing. That timeframe sticks out. 

1918 would have been part of the strongest la nina event of all time, according to that data. Going back to 1300 (!). Also, a 3 year event in the 3rd year. Which produced the following 500mb that January. Pretty wild. Three consecutive el ninos followed this.

1916	-0.907
1917	-3.724
1918	-2.315

[Volcanic Winter]

I genuinely can’t even fathom how crazy some Little Ice Age winters would seem to us today, all through the northeast and even down through DC. As best I can tell, winters could be absolutely Day After Tomorrow level down to North Carolina. 

The things people would do with a Time Machine… I’d be going back to a few key volcanic eruptions then promptly checking out the big LIA winters in NA and Europe…

[MJO812]

Gfs coming in more north of 12z

[EastonSN+]

This is happening ALL SEASON.

The models replace a cold high pressure with a Low pressure NW of us. This raises our temps of course. I can only imagine this is due to northern stream la Nina dominance? If the northern stream is dominant, cutters will pump up the SE ridge.

Last run

 

This run

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and mild. The mercury approach or reach 50° in New York City.

New York City is now on track to see its latest ever first measurable snowfall of the season. The existing record of January 29th was set in 1973. There is a distinct possibility that New York City could get through all of January without a measurable snowfall.

A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. The onset of this cooler period might afford some opportunities for snowfall, but a snowy outcome remains far from certain. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur during the second week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was -3.48 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.826 today.

On January 25 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.959 (RMM). The January 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.589 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.5° (8.8° above normal). That will rank January 2023 as the second warmest January on record.

 

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is happening ALL SEASON.

The models replace a cold high pressure with a Low pressure NW of us. This raises our temps of course. I can only imagine this is due to northern stream la Nina dominance? If the northern stream is dominant, cutters will pump up the SE ridge.

Last run

 

This run

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That’s the NYC DJF mean temperature trend. So the winter of 76-77 was correct. It was our last top 10 coldest winter.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1917-1918	25.7	0
2	1880-1881	26.5	0
3	1903-1904	27.3	0
4	1919-1920	27.4	0
5	1874-1875	27.7	4
-	1872-1873	27.7	0
6	1904-1905	28.1	0
7	1935-1936	28.3	0
8	1976-1977	28.4	0
-	1884-1885	28.4	0
-	1882-1883	28.4	0
9	1892-1893	28.6	0
-	1887-1888	28.6	0
10	1878-1879	29.0	2

 

The DJF thought occurred to me after I posted, but for some reason I couldn't edit the post from my phone.  The trend line did look reasonable.

[Winterweatherlover]

31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is happening ALL SEASON.

The models replace a cold high pressure with a Low pressure NW of us. This raises our temps of course. I can only imagine this is due to northern stream la Nina dominance? If the northern stream is dominant, cutters will pump up the SE ridge.

Last run

 

This run

Oy it does feel a little bit like here we go again. At least this time there is some cold air in place so we’ll see. 

[SnoSki14]

27 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Oy it does feel a little bit like here we go again. At least this time there is some cold air in place so we’ll see. 

The off hour runs are always kinda iffy. Gfs gives us near 0 lows and single digit highs for early Feb lol. 

[Winterweatherlover]

46 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The off hour runs are always kinda iffy. Gfs gives us near 0 lows and single digit highs for early Feb lol. 

Both the GFS and Euro made big jumps north for Wednesday night event on their latest runs, we needed a jump north but it almost jumped too much too fast for me to feel comfortable.  Euro also got quite cold late next week but only lasts a very short time. 

[EastonSN+]

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The off hour runs are always kinda iffy. Gfs gives us near 0 lows and single digit highs for early Feb lol. 

The issue is it's a la Nina and the Northern stream dominates. so instead of the northern low being weak and not torching our temps like an El Nino, the northern low strengthens and pumps up the SE ridge. We may get some frozen, but long story short we need an El Nino bad.

This has been happening all winter, biggest one was the December storm.

[Volcanic Winter]

My expectations couldn't be any more cratered, so I suppose there's only room for a pleasant surprise.

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter 2022-2023 seems to have "flat-lined." Is there an Automated External Defibrillator to shock some life into Winter 2022-2023? Snowfall outcomes for all cases where NYC saw no measurable snow through December 31st.

Flat lined would imply it’s had some life at all.  

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is happening ALL SEASON.

The models replace a cold high pressure with a Low pressure NW of us. This raises our temps of course. I can only imagine this is due to northern stream la Nina dominance? If the northern stream is dominant, cutters will pump up the SE ridge.

Last run

 

This run

There’s no confluence or blocking north of us, so no mechanism to build and keep a high pressure. 

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Flat lined would imply it’s had some life at all.  

That’s true. Good point.

[the_other_guy]

Lots of snow up in Lake Placid if anyone is looking for some. 1- 2 feet or so on ground

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The funny thing is that math was my least favorite subject back in school. But I have always been fascinated by all types of patterns in nature. So this interest in weather and climate statistics is more recent. 

Pattern recognition is amazing and we love all different kinds of it, doesn't need to be mathematical.  There are other kinds of patterns too.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

The issue is it's a la Nina and the Northern stream dominates. so instead of the northern low being weak and not torching our temps like an El Nino, the northern low strengthens and pumps up the SE ridge. We may get some frozen, but long story short we need an El Nino bad.

This has been happening all winter, biggest one was the December storm.

Northern stream should be doing its job and bringing in cold air while the southern stream brings in the moisture.  That's how it normally works, and there is nothing normal about this pattern.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and mild. The mercury approach or reach 50° in New York City.

New York City is now on track to see its latest ever first measurable snowfall of the season. The existing record of January 29th was set in 1973. There is a distinct possibility that New York City could get through all of January without a measurable snowfall.

A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. The onset of this cooler period might afford some opportunities for snowfall, but a snowy outcome remains far from certain. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur during the second week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was -3.48 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.826 today.

On January 25 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.959 (RMM). The January 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.589 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.5° (8.8° above normal). That will rank January 2023 as the second warmest January on record.

 

Don I think we'll get 3 50+ degree days in a row-- Saturday, Sunday and Monday and will likely edge out 1932 for the warmest January on record.  I'm encouraged seeing the cold being delayed too to Feb 1, we should not see another freezing or below low in January and should set that new record too, at 3, edging out 1932 once again.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

So 1918 seems to be another very interesting case actually. If others are interested, like I was. I only recently stumbled upon the NOAA enso reconstruction dataset. So I've been browsing. That timeframe sticks out. 

1918 would have been part of the strongest la nina event of all time, according to that data. Going back to 1300 (!). Also, a 3 year event in the 3rd year. Which produced the following 500mb that January. Pretty wild. Three consecutive el ninos followed this.

1916	-0.907
1917	-3.724
1918	-2.315

Right and note how much colder 1918 was.....the only recent cold la ninas I remember all occurred after el ninos, like 1995-96 and 2010-11.

Also note that 1916-17 and 1917-18 were back to back 50"+ snowfall winters, something that did not get repeated until 2013-14 and 2014-15.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s the NYC DJF mean temperature trend. So the winter of 76-77 was correct. It was our last top 10 coldest winter.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1917-1918	25.7	0
2	1880-1881	26.5	0
3	1903-1904	27.3	0
4	1919-1920	27.4	0
5	1874-1875	27.7	4
-	1872-1873	27.7	0
6	1904-1905	28.1	0
7	1935-1936	28.3	0
8	1976-1977	28.4	0
-	1884-1885	28.4	0
-	1882-1883	28.4	0
9	1892-1893	28.6	0
-	1887-1888	28.6	0
10	1878-1879	29.0	2

 

It's crazy how many of these are 1800s winters.  How do we expand the dataset to include years prior to 1870?  There has to be a way to access average temperatures going back to the early 1800s and even before?

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The longer term decline would be more pronounced if the snowfall measurements were taken as frequently as today. 

https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history

Earlier in our weather history, the standard practice was to record snowfall amounts less frequently, such as every 12 or 24 hours, or even to take just one measurement of depth on the ground at the end of the storm.

You might think that one or two measurements per day should add up to pretty much the same as measurements taken every 6 hours during the storm. It’s a logical assumption, but you would be mistaken. Snow on the ground gets compacted as additional snow falls. Therefore, multiple measurements during a storm typically result in a higher total than if snowfall is derived from just one or two measurements per day.

That can make quite a significant difference. It turns out that it’s not uncommon for the snow on the ground at the end of a storm to be 15 to 20 percent less than the total that would be derived from multiple snowboard measurements.  As the cooperative climate observer for Boulder, Colorado, I examined the 15 biggest snowfalls of the last two decades, all measured at the NOAA campus in Boulder. The sum of the snowboard measurements averaged 17 percent greater than the maximum depth on the ground at the end of the storm. For a 20-inch snowfall, that would be a boost of 3.4 inches—enough to dethrone many close rivals on the top-10 snowstorm list that were not necessarily lesser storms!

Another common practice at the cooperative observing stations prior to 1950 did not involve measuring snow at all, but instead took the liquid derived from the snow and applied a 10:1 ratio (every inch of liquid equals ten inches of snow). This is no longer the official practice and has become increasingly less common since 1950. But it too introduces a potential low bias in historic snowfalls because in most parts of the country (and in the recent blizzard in the Northeast) one inch of liquid produces more than 10 inches of snow.

This means that many of the storms from the 1980s or earlier would probably appear in the record as bigger storms if the observers had used the currently accepted methodology. Now, for those of you northeasterners with aching backs from shoveling, I am not saying that your recent storm wasn’t big in places like Boston, Portland, or Long Island. But I am saying that some of the past greats—the February Blizzard of 1978, the Knickerbocker storm of January 1922, and the great Blizzard of March 1888—are probably underestimated.

So keep in mind when viewing those lists of snowy greats: the older ones are not directly comparable with those in recent decades. It’s not as bad as comparing apples to oranges, but it may be like comparing apples to crabapples.

 

Fascinating-- I wonder how much snow truly fell in the March 1888 blizzard?

And a few of our other great snowstorms.....

December 1947.....(previous record holder)

February 1978

April 1982

February 1983

January 1996

 

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

small white particle substances falling from the sky here at a brisk rate.  Will revert when I identify exactly what these foreign objects are.  

ufos...or uaps....

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s possible that the 5 year moving average getting above 40” in NYC during the 2010s may have been a short term peak within a long term decline. 

Didn't Long Island see an even higher peak, Chris?

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The slowing AMOC is enhancing the warming pattern. It allows the warm waters to pile up along the East Coast. The only part of the globe that is cooling from this is localized area south of Greenland. 
 

 

This is also responsible for moving the Bermuda High northward blunting our high temperatures in the summer

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Good to hear that you believe that it could be quite awhile before our average snowfall starts going down. Thanks as always for your insight, Don. Your posts are great. 

average means nothing really.

What you're likely to get in the typical decade moving forward is something like this:

2/10 winters with 40"+ snowfall

5/10 winters with under 20"+ snowfall

3/10 winters with snowfall between 20-40 inches

 

[EastonSN+]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Northern stream should be doing its job and bringing in cold air while the southern stream brings in the moisture.  That's how it normally works, and there is nothing normal about this pattern.

 

We are on the east side of the northern stream low so flexes the SE ridge. That is normal in a la Nina with no strong blocking to force it underneath us. 

In an El Nino the southern stream is dominant and we we be fine temps wise.

We absolutely have to get out of this la Nina pattern .

Hopefully not too strong or we torch.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, EasternLI said:

I think it's everything together. I think that Pacific warm pool is a big deal though. I fear that thing. I strongly believe it's playing a role with that as it likes to drive a -PNA typically. So that's a logical response to that. But I also think la nina is amplifying that response to an extent since then. Because we seem to be in a la nina like cycle since then as well. By increasing the gradient next to that warm pool. Amplifying it's effectiveness. We did have the weak el nino in 18-19. However the gradient was non existent to the west of that because of that warm pool. So I think this is why that one acted atypical and more enso neutral like. No contrast. Same sort of situation for 19-20. This makes me very skeptical of the next el nino as well though. We'll need to see some gradients. Otherwise I think it's going to be useless again. 

it needs to be on the level of 02-03 or 09-10, weak el ninos wont do it for us anymore