January 2023

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The JBs of the world are already crafting a new narrative about that. Now it's underwater volcanoes causing the warming 

I guess the Jan 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga is why we haven’t had a cold winter since 2016. Makes sense . 

Nothing else in that timeframe has come even close to the kind of water vapor dump into the climate system that would have any impact at all. 

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, North and West said:

I know I’ll get beaten for saying this, but I think that’s overdramatic. Yes; it’s getting warmer, it’s just math. The world isn’t ending. It will snow again.


.

Exactly!

The end of above average snowfall winters will occur once we stop seeing snow in Raleigh/Norfolk/Delmarva IMO.

The 2nd storm looks like it will hit the Delmarva once again. 

How ANYONE can definitely claim the end of winters as we know it is beyond me.

Could it be true? Sure, why can't we wait a few more years to make a claim? I mean we have had multiple 5 year snowless stretches before, so CURRENTLY this stretch is not new.

For me, the 90s are the Benchmark for futility. If we go 10 years with less than 2 average to above average snowfall winters I will admit we are in real trouble (snowfall wise). So starting with Dec 2019, including this year, we are 4 below and 1 above. Let's see what the next five bring.

 

[WX-PA]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Why should winter be different than any other season? When was the last time we had a BN summer?

 

Some of you guys make me laugh… you expect something to magically happen 3 months a year that doesnt happen in the other 9 months.

 

NYC was always marginal for prolonged cold and snow. Now its rapidly warming. Several of us were pointing out for years that 60 inch Islip winters were not a new normal but a finale before the show ended.

There have been many rainstorms since Nov. If we had even a drop of cold air, we would have measured snow. None. zero. zilch. 

Show’s over Folks. The future arrived. Get used to it. 40F and sun. +3 to normal high at 10 am…AGAIN

 

 

Don't think so..When you deal with averages, everything balances out..The last 2 decades was not the climate for NY Metro..it was too snowy. This isn't the climate either..it's somewhere in the middle. There will be snowy, cold winters again..From 1972-1977 it didn't snow in this area. The same from 1983-1992..I went through those times, we celebrated a 3 inch snowstorm.

[Winterweatherlover]

Can we get through next week before writing off all winter? I know the 12z models don’t have anything but next week is still the best potential we’ve had. 

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Can we get through next week before writing off all winter? I know the 12z models don’t have anything but next week is still the best potential we’ve had. 

Yeah we finally have the look of precip missing us to the south with cold air in place, where we can hope for a north trend. It might not work out, but it feels as if we actually have a chance for the first time in a long time. 

[vegan_edible]

i hope we can pull something off next week, this does feel like our window of opportunity. i got my fingers crossed, with all the storm tracks always bumping north and west we could be in the money this time... i hope at least

[donsutherland1]

In New York City, winters are warming, the measurable snow season is shrinking in length, and the average number of events is falling. However, the benefits of added moisture (warm air holds more moisture) has contributed to rising seasonal snowfall as the average event is now larger. There will come a time when the warming is sufficiently great to offset the benefits of added moisture. That process is underway in Washington, DC, but not Philadelphia or New York. It could be another decade or two before such a trend develops in Philadelphia and New York City (an additional 1.0°-1.5° of winter warming is likely needed if Washington's data is representative).

As we move toward that inflection point, one will probably see greater variability between high snow and very low snowfall winters, the latter will often be exceptionally warm even against the 1991-2020 reference period.

[EasternLI]

I don't see why 2 things can't be true together. This pattern is utterly disastrous, true. The planet is getting warmer, true. So here we are. I don't think it's a question of one versus another. It was only a matter of time before these 2 factors converged to produce a snowless season. Maybe it's this one. TBD

 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In New York City, winters are warming, the measurable snow season is shrinking in length, and the average number of events is falling. However, the benefits of added moisture (warm air holds more moisture) has contributed to rising seasonal snowfall as the average event is now larger. There will come a time when the warming is sufficiently great to offset the benefits of added moisture. That process is underway in Washington, DC, but not Philadelphia or New York. It could be another decade or two before such a trend develops in Philadelphia and New York City (an additional 1.0°-1.5° of winter warming is likely needed if Washington's data is representative).

As we move toward that inflection point, one will probably see greater variability between high snow and very low snowfall winters, the latter will often be exceptionally warm even against the 1991-2020 reference period.

Thanks Don.

DC has also seen extremely bad luck (if there is luck in weather). Raleigh had a historic snowfall, multiple Norfolk, Delmarva events. So the combination of warming removing their borderline temp opportunities and near misses has lead to an atrocious snowfall anomaly for that City. 

 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I don't see why 2 things can't be true together. This pattern is utterly disastrous, true. The planet is getting warmer, true. So here we are. I don't think it's a question of one versus another. It was only a matter of time before these 2 factors converged to produce a snowless season. Maybe it's this one. TBD

 

The reason I keep saying that CC is a plus on top of an already crappy pattern is because this winter’s pattern would suck no matter what year. It’s been a rampaging Pacific along with the steep SE Ridge. “Another year” would be +7 or 8 January not +10 but it’s been constantly cold in the northern Plains and NW for several winters. Seattle has more snow than Boston this winter. Part of this to me is the rubber band snapping back and we can’t bank on blockbuster winters like we had last decade. Where CC might really contribute though is reinforcing certain patterns like these where the warm Atlantic reinforces the SE Ridge and warm western Pacific reinforces a Nina atmospheric state. More research needs to be done on that. In the summer it seems to reinforce our increasing humidity on a southerly flow vs more hot 95+ degree days on a westerly wind. The ridge becoming steeper causes the Bermuda High to move north and it becomes more Florida like here while the worst of the heat shoots over into New England. 

[nycwinter]

i do not mind having a cold crappy march beats mid 80' like we had in some marches late 1980's early 1990's

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The reason I keep saying that CC is a plus on top of an already crappy pattern is because this winter’s pattern would suck no matter what year. It’s been a rampaging Pacific along with the steep SE Ridge. “Another year” would be +7 or 8 January not +10 but it’s been constantly cold in the northern Plains and NW for several winters. Seattle has more snow than Boston this winter. Part of this to me is the rubber band snapping back and we can’t bank on blockbuster winters like we had last decade. Where CC might really contribute though is reinforcing certain patterns like these where the warm Atlantic reinforces the SE Ridge and warm western Pacific reinforces a Nina atmospheric state. More research needs to be done on that. In the summer it seems to reinforce our increasing humidity on a southerly flow vs more hot 95+ degree days on a westerly wind. The ridge becoming steeper causes the Bermuda High to move north and it becomes more Florida like here while the worst of the heat shoots over into New England. 

Yes, well said. Same page. 

Root of that is the Hadley cell expanding too. Causing those things IMO. 

[mannynyc]

Looking at the GEFS ensembles. It seems we still have a chance for some kind of overunning/backend or even a light to moderate snow event between January 31st and February 3rd.

February 1st:

February 2nd:

February 3rd:

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don.

DC has also seen extremely bad luck (if there is luck in weather). Raleigh had a historic snowfall, multiple Norfolk, Delmarva events. So the combination of warming removing their borderline temp opportunities and near misses has lead to an atrocious snowfall anomaly for that City. 

 

Even in a lower snow regime, there will sometimes be big snowstorms. Washington, DC is essentially where Richmond was in the early 20th century. It can still have snowy winters, but those will be less frequent than they once were.

[SnoSki14]

I still think we're gonna beat 95/96 for snowfall before CC fully takes over. 

So sometime within the decade most likely 

[rclab]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even in a lower snow regime, there will sometimes be big snowstorms. Washington, DC is essentially where Richmond was in the early 20th century. It can still have snowy winters, but those will be less frequent than they once were.

Good afternoon Don. You sparked a memory from the late 50’s. I remember a newsman in DC reporting on a congressional bill and saying that it would have to be passed by the time the first snow flys on November 15th. Stay well as always ….

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I guess the Jan 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga is why we haven’t had a cold winter since 2016. Makes sense . 

Nothing else in that timeframe has come even close to the kind of water vapor dump into the climate system that would have any impact at all. 

Of course recent Chinese research is claiming that the earf's inner core rotation is changing, which is linked to climate changes...

[Volcanic Winter]

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

Of course recent Chinese research is claiming that the earf's inner core rotation is changing, which is linked to climate changes...

Does that mean our toilettes will flush the other way like Australia now?

[rclab]

43 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don.

DC has also seen extremely bad luck (if there is luck in weather). Raleigh had a historic snowfall, multiple Norfolk, Delmarva events. So the combination of warming removing their borderline temp opportunities and near misses has lead to an atrocious snowfall anomaly for that City. 

 

Good afternoon ESN+. By the Tricentennial Boston will mirror NYC and Portland will mirror Boston. Perhaps our local beach season will end on Halloween and begin on tax day. Stay well, as always ….

[TWCCraig]

Pretty cool sky for a winter day. Sunshine and dark ominous clouds to the north

[Volcanic Winter]

2 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good afternoon ESN+. By the Tricentennial Boston will mirror NYC and Portland will mirror Boston. Perhaps our local beach season will end on Halloween and begin on tax day. Stay well, as always ….

By then all future northeast snow weenies will have built a city on one of the NNE mountains and it’ll be known as ‘Mt Weenie.’ 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Pretty cool sky for a winter day. Sunshine and dark ominous clouds to the north

Looks like some showers/ snow showers moving through. Not sure if reaching the ground 

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good afternoon Don. You sparked a memory from the late 50’s. I remember a newsman in DC reporting on a congressional bill and saying that it would have to be passed by the time the first snow flys on November 15th. Stay well as always ….

Thanks for sharing the memory.

[Winterweatherlover]

Euro is way north for next week. 

[bluewave]

57 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The reason I keep saying that CC is a plus on top of an already crappy pattern is because this winter’s pattern would suck no matter what year. It’s been a rampaging Pacific along with the steep SE Ridge. “Another year” would be +7 or 8 January not +10 but it’s been constantly cold in the northern Plains and NW for several winters. Seattle has more snow than Boston this winter. Part of this to me is the rubber band snapping back and we can’t bank on blockbuster winters like we had last decade. Where CC might really contribute though is reinforcing certain patterns like these where the warm Atlantic reinforces the SE Ridge and warm western Pacific reinforces a Nina atmospheric state. More research needs to be done on that. In the summer it seems to reinforce our increasing humidity on a southerly flow vs more hot 95+ degree days on a westerly wind. The ridge becoming steeper causes the Bermuda High to move north and it becomes more Florida like here while the worst of the heat shoots over into New England. 

The other possibility is that the record breaking SE Ridge since 2015 is being forced by climate change. So it could turn out to be a new climate change teleconnection. Record Gulf Stream warmth combined with record MJO 4-6 warm pool in the WPAC.

 

[winterwx21]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Euro is way north for next week. 

It gets some light snow to us wednesday night (about an inch), but then changes us over to mix/rain on thursday. So you have to go northwest to see a few inches of snow on this run. 

[Winterweatherlover]

12z euro unleashes the artic next weekend 

[Winterweatherlover]

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It gets some light snow to us wednesday night (about an inch), but then changes us over to mix/rain on thursday. So you have to go northwest to see a few inches of snow on this run. 

The way the winter is going I’d take this run. Might be the best case scenario even though in a normal winter it’s not exciting. 

[EastonSN+]

IMO this is the biggest issue this year. We need the NAO to go negative again. Amazing how positive it has been since December 15

[CIK62]

Ugly.........