January 2023

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Where we want it at this lead time....

That’s right everything else has moved north so we actually do need something like this at this time…southern track that gradually moves north as we get closer

[jm1220]

38 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I mean it's not the worst place to live for snow or we'd get less than DC...... lol

 

I agree NYC/LI is pretty heavily dependent on coastals though. 

NYC doesn’t have a breadbasket storm type that delivers the bulk of the snow. DC has Miller A type Gulf storms/southern sliders that deliver their snow while Boston has Miller B redevelopers. NYC can get hit by both types in the right circumstances but also get missed. That’s why it’s so hard to forecast snow amounts here-it’s hard to lock in a snowstorm here 4-5 days out like you can in DC and Boston when you know the storm type. NYC is often on the edge where a 75 mile difference can mean 12+ or little. 2/6/10 is the most extreme example, last Jan’s storm, 1/25/15, 1/23/16 etc where tiny differences near NYC would’ve caused hugely different outcomes while Boston or DC’s fates were locked for days before. 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.3° (8.6° above normal). That will rank January 2023 as the second warmest January on record.

 

We'd have to drop down to absolute zero to avoid finishing the month AN. What a month, lol.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I think we can make it to 1....we just don't want the last day of the month to mess it up-- hence why I said January and March should both have 30 days and give those 2 days to February to balance out the calendar better.

The high was in the mid 50s both yesterday and today and looks like the weekend could be in the 50s too.

 

I think we’ll make it to the 1st. There may then be a window of opportunity for some snow during the first week of February before it warms up again during the following week.

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through January 25th:

[mattinpa]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I think we’ll make it to the 1st. There may then be a window of opportunity for some snow during the first week of February before it warms up again during the following week.

Hi Don - how long do you see the February warmup lasting and do you think there will be one more chance before spring? (like in late Feb or March)

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, mattinpa said:

Hi Don - how long do you see the February warmup lasting and do you think there will be one more chance before spring? (like in late Feb or March)

It's tough to know, as the La Niña is beginning to fade, though discontinuously. I suspect that we'll see at least 1-2 weeks of above normal temperatures once the warmup occurs. Late February-early March might hold some additional opportunities for snowfall, if some past La Niña winters are representative.

[vegan_edible]

while i wait for the 0z models to drop, anyone know if theres snow on the ground in the catskills or taconics? girlfriends birthday this weekend and we're thinking winter hike. anyone with snow locked in on the ground let me know. I know its gonna be warm this weekend but the catskill elevation may help

[Metasequoia]

27 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

while i wait for the 0z models to drop, anyone know if theres snow on the ground in the catskills or taconics? girlfriends birthday this weekend and we're thinking winter hike. anyone with snow locked in on the ground let me know. I know its gonna be warm this weekend but the catskill elevation may help

https://www.weather.gov/nerfc/snow

[vegan_edible]

3 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

https://www.weather.gov/nerfc/snow

thanks!

[dWave]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

We'd have to drop down to absolute zero to avoid finishing the month AN. What a month, lol.

It's crazy..Jan will not have a single below normal day. Reminds me of Dec 2015. That month was more extreme warmth, but I think it had more variation than this one.

[mannynyc]

0z GFS is still a miss but is slightly farther north than 18z GFS for January 31st. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I can't wait until it hits 100+ this summer multiple days in a row and these same people start whining about it.
 

Never has happened here and I hope not in my lifetime. I’ve never quite understood your passion for extreme heat.


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[Winterweatherlover]

18 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

0z GFS is still a miss but is slightly farther north than 18z GFS for January 31st. 

Meanwhile the CMC has rain on Wed with ice just north of the city. 

[pazzo83]

Is my count right that the city has only had 3 days so far this month of 32 or below?  That's insane.

[Winterweatherlover]

CMC trends to GFS with the storm next weekend, surpressed to the south. Still a lonnnng way to go but would not surprise me at all if we somehow find a way to get rain from one storm and miss another.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I've never been a fan of using "new averages". I think doing so distorts the real averages. The entire data set should be used to establish the averages....and before anyone "yells" at me, I am well aware that the official site for the weather observation(s) has changed over time.

The 30 year average in NYC is now 29.8 inches which is right about where the 153 year average is, which is 28.8.


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[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I happen to agree. The 30” is skewed by the big winters we had in the past 10 years and will likely reverse somewhat in the next 10 years. As we see here what can be given easily gets taken away. This will be the 4th of the last 5 winters that will very likely be well below “average” at Central Park. The 5th was 20-21 where we all really lucked out. 

Yet the average is 28.8 since they’ve been keeping records. You could just as easily say it was skewed way low during the abysmal 1971-2000 period.


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[gravitylover]

5 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

while i wait for the 0z models to drop, anyone know if theres snow on the ground in the catskills or taconics? girlfriends birthday this weekend and we're thinking winter hike. anyone with snow locked in on the ground let me know. I know its gonna be warm this weekend but the catskill elevation may help

Considering that the Taconics run from Northern Westchester County all the way to Central VT, yes there is snow on the ground somewhere in the range. How far you want to travel is another thing. 

[Tatamy]

Did anyone else partake in last night’s car topper event?  I just looked outside and I have a thin coating of snow on most surfaces.

[WIN]

7 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

CMC trends to GFS with the storm next weekend, surpressed to the south. Still a lonnnng way to go but would not surprise me at all if we somehow find a way to get rain from one storm and miss another.  

Agreed. Kinda reminds me of many winters in the 70s and 80s. We always seemed to be either too far north, too far south, too far east or too far west for any given storm. It was unbelievable at times.

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Never has happened here and I hope not in my lifetime. I’ve never quite understood your passion for extreme heat.


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Growing up in the 90s and setting those extreme heat records then and taking pictures of my thermometer when it hit triple digits, it was quite an accomplishment on the south shore.  Pretty much the only kind of weather history we made here until 95-96 came along.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, WIN said:

Agreed. Kinda reminds me of many winters in the 70s and 80s. We always seemed to be either too far north, too far south, too far east or too far west for any given storm. It was unbelievable at times.

NYC is badly placed for west to east and southwest to northeast storm tracks.  And having the ocean to your south makes it even worse.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Did anyone else partake in last night’s car topper event?  I just looked outside and I have a thin coating of snow on most surfaces.

Was the map I saw posted for the southern Poconos correct? It said there was 3-6 inches of snow on the ground up near Albrightsville and Lake Harmony?

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Yet the average is 28.8 since they’ve been keeping records. You could just as easily say it was skewed way low during the abysmal 1971-2000 period.


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and they weren't even allowing for compaction in the first 5 decades or so of the snowfall record when it was over 30"

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's tough to know, as the La Niña is beginning to fade, though discontinuously. I suspect that we'll see at least 1-2 weeks of above normal temperatures once the warmup occurs. Late February-early March might hold some additional opportunities for snowfall, if some past La Niña winters are representative.

so the warmup should commence around Feb 8th and last until the 21st Don?

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I think we’ll make it to the 1st. There may then be a window of opportunity for some snow during the first week of February before it warms up again during the following week.

Thanks Don, would you say the warm up begins around the 8th or later in the second week around the 10th?

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I mean it's not the worst place to live for snow or we'd get less than DC...... lol

 

I agree NYC/LI is pretty heavily dependent on coastals though. 

Yeah and the snowfall average thing is a bit complicated because many more of our events are snow to rain DC is usually either all snow or all rain (and being an inland location sometimes they get snow while we get rain lol)

It was even worse in the 80s when the storm tracks were more suppressed and it was a lot colder....DC beat NYC in half the winters for snowfall.

 

[Tatamy]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Was the map I saw posted for the southern Poconos correct? It said there was 3-6 inches of snow on the ground up near Albrightsville and Lake Harmony?

 

I can’t speak for that area so I don’t know if that is true.  Apparently some channelized vorticity combined with a weakening lake effect streamer managed to make it this far east.  Mount Holly had us at a 20% chance last night.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I can’t speak for that area so I don’t know if that is true.  Apparently some channelized vorticity combined with a weakening lake effect streamer managed to make it this far east.  Mount Holly had us at a 20% chance last night.

How much did you get? I saw that you wrote cartopped?

I dont believe that 3-6 is from one event, just the overall snowcover on the ground there right now.