January 2023

[MJO812]

Does anyone know how snow looks? 

 

Thank you

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Does anyone know how snow looks? 

 

Thank you

January 29th, 2022

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Got me beat Rjay, but 1/29 was pretty fun my ways too:

[hudsonvalley21]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Does anyone know how snow looks? 

 

Thank you

Sorry had to do it 

 

[Eduardo]

5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I think we just have to hope that this most recent five year period doesn’t characterize a “new normal” for the area. I suppose we’ll gain some insight there when we finally shake up the ENSO into something more favorable and see how we do. Can’t really think of much else to add, just hoping we can snag at least one moderate coastal out of this month. 

Maybe I’m too optimistic, but I don’t think things are that dire yet.  Temp-wise, I think we’ll see more cold clusters like 13–14 and 14–15 even as long-term (i.e., 10- and 30-year) averages continue to rise.  Snow-wise, it’s more about getting certain atmospheric variables to allign.  That’ll happen at some point (likely for a string of winters) even as we continue warming overall.  We’ve seen an anomalous number of 40”+ winters since 02–03 even during some of the warmer of those winters (with 09–10 perhaps being the most notable).

[MJO812]

I hope the euro is right with the coastal snowstorm 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and mild.  Showers are possible. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most areas.  Some areas could reach the lower 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 57°

Newark: 60°

Philadelphia: 62°

It will turn somewhat cooler starting Thursday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.3°; 15-Year: 41.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 40.7°; 15-Year: 41.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.1°; 15-Year: 43.1°

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I hope the euro is right with the coastal snowstorm 

Care to elaborate for those of us on mobile?

[Tatamy]

9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Care to elaborate for those of us on mobile?

Day 9 on an OP run without ensemble support.

[Tatamy]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There is ensemble support for some type of storm. While temperatures are warm at the start, we would need a closed low to cool things down to change from rain to snow. We would also probably need the Pacific flow to back off a bit so the southern stream doesn’t get suppressed. 
 

I will clarify that I meant no ensemble support for the specific outcome shown on the day 9 OP run.  Your synopsis clearly states the tall order that would be required in order for this outcome to actually occur.  

[Allsnow]

Caught in a trap and we can’t get out….

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    46degs.(42/50) or +13.

Reached 57 here yesterday.

Today:    Rising T's into tomorrow AM from 49 up to 57, wind e. to sw., cloudy, rain 11am-5pm.

Happy Times?      Only In America---or should I say only on the EURO OP:   Still snowing at 240+, so this may not be the final total:

The ENS. has virtually no chance for 1".       Running the full 360hrs. does not add anything here.    Go back to sleep till __/__/__.

Be lately, allow me to add this, which obviously does not support a storm---it does even support any cold air or accidental patch of same that might creep in here:

50*(90%RH) here at 6am.{was 49 at 3am}     51* at 7am.      Over the past 7 hours seen 49-52.     51 at 2pm.     53*-55* since 3pm---now 55* at 7pm.

[North and West]

Caught in a trap and we can’t get out….

Because I zonal flow too much baby…


.

[North and West]

Day 9 on an OP run without ensemble support.

I’ve stopped believing anything past five days.


.

[Tatamy]

Just now, North and West said:

I’ve stopped believing anything past five days.


.

I did the same a long time ago.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I will clarify that I meant no ensemble support for the specific outcome shown on the day 9 OP run.  Your synopsis clearly states the tall order that would be required in order for this outcome to actually occur.  

I understand. We always need some type of extra support like a perfectly timed closed low to get it to snow in warm patterns. But it’s has been a challenge in recent years to get the Pacific Jet to back off a bit and  allow the pieces to fall into place. We have learned that we need to see snow under 5 or even 3 days to be believable with such a hostile Pacific. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, bluewave said:

I understand. We always need some type of extra support like a perfectly timed closed low to get it to snow in warm patterns. But it’s has been a challenge in recent years to get the Pacific Jet to back off a bit and  allow the pieces to fall into place. We have learned that we need to see snow under 5 or even 3 days to be believable with such a hostile Pacific. 

Do you think we ever flip this warm pattern? All I see is zonal flow out to the end of the ensemble runs 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Do you think we ever flip this warm pattern? All I see is zonal flow out to the end of the ensemble runs 

All I can say is they the temperatures will probably average above normal the next few weeks. No sign yet of the fast Pacific flow and trough near the West Coast backing off. Plus all the Arctic air is currently in Asia. 

[EastonSN+]

8 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Maybe I’m too optimistic, but I don’t think things are that dire yet.  Temp-wise, I think we’ll see more cold clusters like 13–14 and 14–15 even as long-term (i.e., 10- and 30-year) averages continue to rise.  Snow-wise, it’s more about getting certain atmospheric variables to allign.  That’ll happen at some point (likely for a string of winters) even as we continue warming overall.  We’ve seen an anomalous number of 40”+ winters since 02–03 even during some of the warmer of those winters (with 09–10 perhaps being the most notable).

100% agree

I think the current 5 year stretch is just a repeat of years like 96 through 2000 or 88 through 92.

The bonanza we had 2000 through 2018 was more of a repeat of the 60s. 

Unfortunately, after the 60s we went through a terrible 30 year stretch for snowfall, save 77/78, 94/95, 95/96 and a couple other above average snowfall years. 

Global warming is real, but global warming does not change a day from 1950 from 32 to 62, that's a pattern driven phenomenon. 

In summation, we will have more great snowfall seasons, -4SD AOs will produce more snow in future Decembers, clippers will come back at some point etc. However, we may be heading into another tough stretch like 1970 through 2000 (though I hope not).

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, North and West said:

Because I zonal flow too much baby…


.

Looks like the opposite of December on the west coast where the trough was in the SW and a ridge just off the coast. 

Also, the WAR retrograded west and is a SER (and a trough off the coast a bit out).

 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All I can say is they the temperatures will probably average above normal the next few weeks. No sign yet of the fast Pacific flow and trough near the West Coast backing off. Plus all the Arctic air is currently in Asia. 

It’s never good when the cold is on the other side of the globe. Most of our awful winters have had that happen 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Global warming is real, but global warming does not change a day from 1950 from 32 to 62, that's a pattern driven phenomenon. 

But the warming itself influences what types of patterns we get. Marine heatwaves in the WPAC and off the US East Coast can result in record SE Ridges instead of more frequent cooler troughs. We haven’t had a cold winter since 14-15 which has never happened over such a long period of time. So if the circulation pattern changes, then what used to be a 32° day can become more frequent 50° or even 60° winter days.

[EastonSN+]

If we want to be snowfall optimistic, just think that if December 2020 failed like this last December, then we would be in the exact same boat statistically (i.e Decembers with no accumulating snow) and that historic February would have still occurred. 

That's why while helpful, statistics do not always tell the full story.

Same could be said about the December 2000 storm to a certain extent.

Sure we may get shut out the rest of the way, but I doubt it.

[CIK62]

Let me confuse things.    PS    JB sleeps with the CFSv2 and never saw a pattern that did not remind him of another pattern.      He says this will happen:

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But the warming itself influences what types of patterns we get. Marine heatwaves in the WPAC and off the US East Coast can result in record SE Ridges instead of more frequent cooler troughs. We haven’t had a cold winter since 14-15 which has never happened over such a long period of time. So if the circulation pattern changes, then what used to be a 32° day can become more frequent 50° or even 60° winter days.

Time will tell I guess. What was the previous record for warm winters? Thinking it had to be 96/97 through 1999/2000.

[Volcanic Winter]

Not to interrupt a good discussion, I’m just curious what -SN or SN+ means? I’ve seen that a few places aside your username, Easton - especially on the NE boards. My best context guess is whether snow is sticking to all surfaces or not? I’m sure that’s wrong, but I think it refers to a snowfall characteristic.

Thanks. 

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Time will tell I guess. What was the previous record for warm winters? Thinking it had to be 96/97 through 1999/2000.

We have had 7 consecutive warmer winters from 15-16 to 21-22. The 96-97 to 01-02 was only 4 years. So this one is the longest streak. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s never good when the cold is on the other side of the globe. Most of our awful winters have had that happen 

Exactly. We need a full scale PV disruption to shake things up if we want to see a snow pattern. It’s not impossible but we could just stay like this the rest of the winter for a 11/12 type scenario. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Volcanic Winter said:

Not to interrupt a good discussion, I’m just curious what -SN or SN+ means? I’ve seen that a few places aside your username, Easton - especially on the NE boards. My best context guess is whether snow is sticking to all surfaces or not? I’m sure that’s wrong. 

Thanks. 

SN+ is heavy snow.

SN- is light snow.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

SN+ is heavy snow.

SN- is light snow.

 

Excellent, thank you!