EasternLI Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I wonder why we don't have multi year el ninos, at least triple year el ninos are unheardof in the modern record There's a reason for that. It's complicated. At least as far as it's understood. This stuff is constantly being studied. It's interesting though, would be cool to check out a much longer record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Getting quite windy here out of the ESE, gusting to 30mph. Temperature on the rise, 42.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Another storm is bringing precipitation to the New York City area. As has been the theme this winter, at least so far, there has been no measurable snow. Seemingly, back in 2000, country singer Jo Dee Messina nailed New York City's forecast before the January 25 6z GFS did with her "Bring on the rain." New York City wound up picking up just a trace of snow. That extended its measurable snow drought to 322 consecutive days, which ranks as the second longest such stretch on record. New York City is now on track to see its latest ever first measurable snowfall of the season. The existing record of January 29th was set in 1973. There is a distinct possibility that New York City could get through all of January without a measurable snowfall. A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur during the second week of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +14.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.545 today. On January 23 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.541 (RMM). The January 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.525 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.0° (8.3° above normal). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Most of us had a decent one in early Jan last year. 8" of powdery snow IMBY. Yeah I got something like 5 1/2" from that one down here (Toms River / Manchester border), and then 16 inches on 1/29. Frustratingly I was too far north for the big ACY storm at the very beginning of the month and sucked virga after being forecasted to get moderate amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 32 minutes ago, EasternLI said: There's a reason for that. It's complicated. At least as far as it's understood. This stuff is constantly being studied. It's interesting though, would be cool to check out a much longer record. Maybe because La Nina is really about a warmer west pac? They seem so destructive I would be perfectly fine with climate engineering that would blunt or at least make la ninas much less frequent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 19 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Yeah I got something like 5 1/2" from that one down here (Toms River / Manchester border), and then 16 inches on 1/29. Frustratingly I was too far north for the big ACY storm at the very beginning of the month and sucked virga after being forecasted to get moderate amounts. 1/29 must have been the big one for us we got near a foot in western nassau 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Another storm is bringing precipitation to the New York City area. As has been the theme this winter, at least so far, there has been no measurable snow. Seemingly, back in 2000, country singer Jo Dee Messina nailed New York City's forecast before the January 25 6z GFS did with her "Bring on the rain." New York City wound up picking up just a trace of snow. That extended its measurable snow drought to 322 consecutive days, which ranks as the second longest such stretch on record. New York City is now on track to see its latest ever first measurable snowfall of the season. The existing record of January 29th was set in 1973. There is a distinct possibility that New York City could get through all of January without a measurable snowfall. A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur during the second week of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +14.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.545 today. On January 23 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.541 (RMM). The January 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.525 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.0° (8.3° above normal). Good chances we beat Jan 1932 for warmest January ever Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 34 minutes ago, lee59 said: Getting quite windy here out of the ESE, gusting to 30mph. Temperature on the rise, 42.5. winds could approach 60 late tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Effing Rain after .50” of snow. This Suuuccckkkksss. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Maybe because La Nina is really about a warmer west pac? They seem so destructive I would be perfectly fine with climate engineering that would blunt or at least make la ninas much less frequent. Oh yeah, it's absolutely about that. That goes back to the gradients conversation too. Without that, it's not going be very effective. That warm pool is going to be a real problem too I think. As it keeps getting warmer. I forsee trouble stemming from that thing, increasingly. I'm not just talking snow either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Good chances we beat Jan 1932 for warmest January ever Don? I think we'll fall short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Windy, raining, 43 miserable degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I just remember the blizzard and one other smaller (but still significant storm)....that really wasn't a snowy winter (for anyone.) Here another smaller one https://www.oceancity.com/a-snowy-start-to-2022-in-ocean-city-md/ Keep in mind this is rare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Picked up 0.54" of rain so far today. Current temp 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 42 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I think we'll fall short. They keep playing it up on ABC saying every day for the entire month will be above normal and both days on the weekend will hit 50 and that we'll hit 50 tonight too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 ok just had to take dogs out and this weather sucks b*lls. Windy rainy and raw. who do I talk to in order to get proper winter precipitation ❄️? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 45 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Oh yeah, it's absolutely about that. That goes back to the gradients conversation too. Without that, it's not going be very effective. That warm pool is going to be a real problem too I think. As it keeps getting warmer. I forsee trouble stemming from that thing, increasingly. I'm not just talking snow either. I wonder if that means more trouble for the west too.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: They keep playing it up on ABC saying every day for the entire month will be above normal and both days on the weekend will hit 50 and that we'll hit 50 tonight too. We’ll need the lows to be higher. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: They keep playing it up on ABC saying every day for the entire month will be above normal and both days on the weekend will hit 50 and that we'll hit 50 tonight too. Meanwhile 20 to 30 below zero in northern Minnesota this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just absolutely a monsoon on the south shore right now. Heavy precip even by summer standers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Just absolutely a monsoon on the south shore right now. Heavy precip even by summer standers Should be a soaker tonight. 21z HRRR showed up to 2” across LI. The LLJ associated with the developing coastal low means business. Winds will be kicked up too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: We’ll need the lows to be higher. By "cooler" in the first week of February, do you mean near normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Gefs basically kicked the can again….0.0 here we come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 As much as I would love next weeks "potentially" favorable period to pan out for us I can certainly see it failing fairly easily. Overall its probably going to be the best chance we have had so far this winter with getting something wintry down to the coast. The models have just been atrocious and the pattern seems to favor areas north and west of the immediate NYC metro so its difficult to believe that will change. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: We’ll need the lows to be higher. Is the air going to be dry, Don? The lows I saw looked like above freezing every night from here through the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 24 minutes ago, lee59 said: Meanwhile 20 to 30 below zero in northern Minnesota this weekend. They've had quite the winter, from that area back to the Rockies seem to be where arctic air masses go now, as has been the case for several years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gefs basically kicked the can again….0.0 here we come Yeah, I'm not seeing much come out of this either. Looks like cutter cold front then ridge on this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Is the air going to be dry, Don? The lows I saw looked like above freezing every night from here through the end of the month. It should be dry for the remainder of January once the ongoing storm moves away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1.5” of snow here today for our biggest event of the season. Now enjoying some wind-driven 43° evening and overnight 1991-style January rain.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Yeah, I'm not seeing much come out of this either. Looks like cutter cold front then ridge on this. It was a cutter because of the…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now