January 2023

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@MJO812 mid month mjo help 

300 plus hours op run

Allsnow lost his mind

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the faster Pacific Jet started with the 18-19 season. Notice the step down in snowfall from the previous 5 year period. The strong La Niña background state prevented the El Niño from coupling in 18-19. We got really lucky with the +PNA -AO for the 2020-2021 La Niña.

This captures things perfectly IMO and I’d add that the screaming PAC jet is what has led to longer-range models being unable to sort things out over these past few years.  Our failure to score in December despite a -4.0 AO, I think, really highlights the dominance of this feature.

At some point, things will reshuffle and we’ll return to a more snow-lover-friendly background state (albeit amidst an increasingly warmer globe).  That could take years, if history is any indication.  Until then, we are just going to have to hope for some luck.  But hanging on to hope that everything is just going to flip on a dime is just setting yourself up for disappointment at this point.

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The long range EPS and GEFS continue to underestimate the Pacific Jet and the -PNA trough near the West Coast day 11-15. So a continuation of the day 11-15 forecasts struggling with the fast Pacific flow. These week 2 forecasts have been getting pushed back since late November.

New runs for Jan 10

Old runs

 

 I wonder whether this underestimation of the Pacific jet/overdoing the +PNA by the models in the 11-15 often since late November is partially related to near record high SSTs in Indonesia/Maritime Continent. I was told by a pro met a couple of years ago that the record high SSTs in the MC likely sometimes cause the Pacific to act as if there's a pseudo MC MJO phase (4 and 5) even when the MJO, itself, isn't officially in the MC. It seems as if this has been occurring a lot over the last several years and the MC has been near record highs for several years.

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

300 plus hours op run

Allsnow lost his mind

at some point in the near future you will have to move to a  more snowy place.you cant be putting out model runs showing a more favorable pattern for snow in the nyc area people might think you lost all your marbles...

[Volcanic Winter]

25 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

at some point in the near future you will have to move to a  more snowy place.you cant be putting out model runs showing a more favorable pattern for snow in the nyc area people might think you lost all your marbles...

Honestly average NYC snow is not bad, plenty for most. Probably not hardcore snow lovers, but it’s not like the area is a snow vacuum. 

The crux of it (right now at least) is getting to average in the first place, and occasionally getting the winters that balance out the bad ones. 

It is definitely possible as much as I’d like it not to be true that the last twenty or so years were anomalously snowy and not something that’s likely to continue. I tend to think the warmth is going to be more and more of an issue than anything else. I know some disagree, at least in the short term. 

[donsutherland1]

There is some discussion that the latest GEFS forecast of widespread 5-day average warm anomalies would be wrong should the MJO forecast be accurate. However, the January 3-6, 1997 exception argues for waiting for more data before reaching conclusions. 

[NorthShoreWx]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Buffalo's snowpack is almost gone

 

 

 

https://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-ny-elmwood-ave-mr-pizza

 

 

 

That was fast

Fake snow.

[eduggs]

5 hours ago, Rjay said:

Yup. Bluewave is 100% right that we need to get a decent pattern modeled inside 10 days.  The models continually underestimate the pac jet. 

I think we need a snowstorm modeled inside 3 days, not a "pattern." To the degree that patterns can even be defined, they are continental to hemispheric in scale. Snowstorms are local to regional. 

[lee59]

15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Fake snow.

I wouldn't call it fake snow, just very light (in weight) snow. Whenever it snows with temperatures around 10, it is dry and light. So it can easily compact when temperatures go up.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I wonder whether this underestimation of the Pacific jet/overdoing the +PNA by the models in the 11-15 often since late November is partially related to near record high SSTs in Indonesia/Maritime Continent. I was told by a pro met a couple of years ago that the record high SSTs in the MC likely sometimes cause the Pacific to act as if there's a pseudo MC MJO phase (4 and 5) even when the MJO, itself, isn't officially in the MC. It seems as if this has been occurring a lot over the last several years and the MC has been near record highs for several years.

Yeah, I think the record SSTs in the WPAC and off the East Coast are working in tandem to enhance the SE Ridge. Notice how the models have been underestimating  the -PNA and the SE Ridge day 11-15. This has been a common occurrence in recent years.

https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html

 

 

 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

40 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I wouldn't call it fake snow, just very light (in weight) snow. Whenever it snows with temperatures around 10, it is dry and light. So it can easily compact when temperatures go up.

That was a reference to an expression from an old regional (mostly joking) argument and is indeed based on the low water content of most lake effect snow, rather than the processes that form it.

I've spent some time in lake belts, and if you've ever cleaned 6" of snow with barely a tenth of an inch of SWE off of your car, you'd understand the genesis of the expression.  But yes, fake effect is real snow.

I'm pretty sure some of the really mammoth lake dumps can run into inches of water equivalent, but most are relatively light.

[lee59]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It's an expression from an old regional (mostly joking) argument and is indeed based on the low water content of most lake effect snow, rather than the processes that form it.

I've spent some time in lake belts, and if you've ever cleaned 6" of snow with barely a tenth of an inch of SWE off of your car, you'd understand the genesis of the expression.  But yes, fake effect is real snow.

I'm pretty sure some of the really mammoth lake dumps can run into inches of water equivalent, but most are relatively light.

I understand

[CIK62]

No comment:

And yes, the GEFS is identical:

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and unseasonably mild. The warmth will peak on Wednesday with temperatures rising into the 60s as far north as southern New England.

Overall, readings will average 10°-15° above normal during the first week of the month. The second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, but a cold outcome is not assured.

Although some of the guidance suggests that the MJO could move into Phase 8 at an amplitude at or above 1.000 within two weeks, Phase 8 is not always cold. During January 3-6, 1997, much of the CONUS was much warmer than normal despite the MJO's being in Phase 8 coupled with a negative Arctic Oscillation. While 1997-style warmth is not yet the most likely outcome, a scenario where temperatures generally reach the 40s across the region during the daytime hours through mid-month seems more likely than one with much below normal readings.

2022 became the 14th year during which New York City received no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions.

The SOI was +30.81 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.117 today.

On December 31 the MJO was not available. The December 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.635 (RMM).

 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, Eduardo said:

This captures things perfectly IMO and I’d add that the screaming PAC jet is what has led to longer-range models being unable to sort things out over these past few years.  Our failure to score in December despite a -4.0 AO, I think, really highlights the dominance of this feature.

At some point, things will reshuffle and we’ll return to a more snow-lover-friendly background state (albeit amidst an increasingly warmer globe).  That could take years, if history is any indication.  Until then, we are just going to have to hope for some luck.  But hanging on to hope that everything is just going to flip on a dime is just setting yourself up for disappointment at this point.

Yeah, 14-15 to 17-18 was a peak in snowfall for 5 year periods since 02-03 in NYC.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.0	1.3	2.6	4.2	7.7	2.7	T	16.4
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	0.0	M	M	M	T
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8
2018-2019	0.0	6.4	T	1.1	2.6	10.4	0.0	20.5

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.0	0.0	4.1	16.7	12.2	8.2	1.1	42.3
2017-2018	0.0	T	7.7	11.2	4.9	11.6	5.5	40.9
2016-2017	0.0	T	3.2	7.9	9.4	9.7	0.0	30.2
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	27.9	4.0	0.9	T	32.8
2014-2015	0.0	0.2	1.0	16.9	13.6	18.6	0.0	50.3
2013-2014	0.0	T	8.6	19.7	29.0	0.1	T	57.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.6	0.9	7.8	10.6	11.7	3.3	T	34.9
2012-2013	0.0	4.7	0.4	1.5	12.2	7.3	0.0	26.1
2011-2012	2.9	0.0	0.0	4.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	7.4
2010-2011	0.0	T	20.1	36.0	4.8	1.0	T	61.9
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	12.4	2.1	36.9	T	0.0	51.4
2008-2009	0.0	T	6.0	9.0	4.3	8.3	T	27.6

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	T	T	7.7	7.0	13.7	3.8	0.7	32.9
2007-2008	0.0	T	2.9	T	9.0	T	0.0	11.9
2006-2007	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.6	3.8	6.0	T	12.4
2005-2006	0.0	T	9.7	2.0	26.9	1.3	0.1	40.0
2004-2005	0.0	T	3.0	15.3	15.8	6.9	0.0	41.0
2003-2004	0.0	0.0	19.8	17.3	0.7	4.8	0.0	42.6
2002-2003	T	T	11.0	4.7	26.1	3.5	4.0	49.3

[Volcanic Winter]

I think we just have to hope that this most recent five year period doesn’t characterize a “new normal” for the area. I suppose we’ll gain some insight there when we finally shake up the ENSO into something more favorable and see how we do. Can’t really think of much else to add, just hoping we can snag at least one moderate coastal out of this month. 

[donsutherland1]

Through week 2, above normal temperatures are forecast to continue in the U.S. on the EPS weekly guidance. Beyond 2 weeks, skill scores are low.

[North and West]

From a phycological perspective, I think that since we had such an epic period from 2000 through 2018 this 5 year period startng with 18/19 has shook us. We are looking for climate reasons for this change, when in actuality 2000 through 2018 was the abnormality, not the current bad stretch.
Look at the 70, 80s and 90s, bad stretches and years were the norm. Geez I remember a February in the early 90s we're we wore short sleeves to school on day that hit 70.
The 60s were more comparable to this century with snowfall.
Yes global temps are rising, but in no way are March clippers, December snow with a -4AO EXTINCT.

I remember February and March 1990 walking home from school after playing basketball with my friends and being in short sleeves and the trees blooming. It also snowed in April 1990 out here, I think.


.

[North and West]

From a phycological perspective, I think that since we had such an epic period from 2000 through 2018 this 5 year period startng with 18/19 has shook us. We are looking for climate reasons for this change, when in actuality 2000 through 2018 was the abnormality, not the current bad stretch.
Look at the 70, 80s and 90s, bad stretches and years were the norm. Geez I remember a February in the early 90s we're we wore short sleeves to school on day that hit 70.
The 60s were more comparable to this century with snowfall.
Yes global temps are rising, but in no way are March clippers, December snow with a -4AO EXTINCT.

I remember February and March 1990 walking home from school after playing basketball with my friends and being in short sleeves and the trees blooming. It also snowed in April 1990 out here, I think.


.

[TWCCraig]

RGEM and the higher resolution HRDPS both have 70's for Wednesday

[the_other_guy]

31 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I think we just have to hope that this most recent five year period doesn’t characterize a “new normal” for the area. I suppose we’ll gain some insight there when we finally shake up the ENSO into something more favorable and see how we do. Can’t really think of much else to add, just hoping we can snag at least one moderate coastal out of this month. 

Forget the snow…it’s too warm.

 

Lack of snow isn’t the story… The extreme warmth is. This isnt normal. You’ve had year upon year of extreme winter warmth.

 

I mean you look out at the GFS… that isn’t January; that’s fucking November. Your chances of getting snow with November temperatures…. You have no chance.

 

So forget yearly averages, means, medians. if you live in Brooklyn and you have a begonia plant in your apartment, put it out on the fire escape and it’s not going to die anytime soon.

When you grasp that reality, you will stop talking about snow. This isnt a Pacific pattern. This is unprecedented. This is fucking insane. 

rewriting the playbook . End of story. 

 

 

[Rjay]

32 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I think we just have to hope that this most recent five year period doesn’t characterize a “new normal” for the area. I suppose we’ll gain some insight there when we finally shake up the ENSO into something more favorable and see how we do. Can’t really think of much else to add, just hoping we can snag at least one moderate coastal out of this month. 

Its going to be warm quite often unfortunately.  But it doesnt mean we'll go through an entire winter with no chance of snowfalls.  We definitely could use an ENSO shakeup but idk how much that means anymore in our warming climate.   I suppose we'll find out this decade.

One thing I can promise is that it will snow again.  This winter is far from over but things look ugly...for now.  

[Volcanic Winter]

9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Forget the snow…it’s too warm.

 

Lack of snow isn’t the story… The extreme warmth is. This isnt normal. You’ve had year upon year of extreme winter warmth.

 

I mean you look out at the GFS… that isn’t January; that’s fucking November. Your chances of getting snow with November temperatures…. You have no chance.

 

So forget yearly averages, means, medians. if you live in Brooklyn and you have a begonia plant in your apartment, put it out on the fire escape and it’s not going to die anytime soon.

When you grasp that reality, you will stop talking about snow. This isnt a Pacific pattern. This is unprecedented. This is fucking insane. 

rewriting the playbook . End of story. 

 

 

Yeah, I mean I agree with you. I said on here a while back I don’t understand how people don’t find this more disturbing, but even here many people “love the warmth.” Totally respect that, but I would think concern over the state of the climate would win out in DJFM from a bunch of weather enthusiasts. It’s just almost a sure thing, especially in Dec as per all of Bluewave’s data, that we have a big fat warm up every year. 

I’m not saying it will, but if this winter repeats similar positive departures from 19-20 that should have everyone at attention. 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, I mean I agree with you. I said on here a while back I don’t understand how people don’t find this more disturbing, but even here many people “love the warmth.” Totally respect that, but I would think concern over the state of the climate would win out in DJFM from a bunch of weather enthusiasts. It’s just almost a sure thing, especially in Dec as per all of Bluewave’s data, that we have a big fat warm up every year. 

I’m not saying it will, but if this winter repeats similar positive departures from 19-20 that should have everyone at attention. 

Love this post.

Re: the the bolded, you would think so but as soon people start talking about a warming climate people retreat to their political corners.  

[Allsnow]

18 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

RGEM and the higher resolution HRDPS both have 70's for Wednesday

Bring it 

[Rjay]

48 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Bring it 

It would feel amazing.  I used to love the cold but nowadays if it's not gonna snow i root for a torch.  

Funny thing is I hate the summer bc it's too many 90s.  

[North and West]

Love this post.
Re: the the bolded, you would think so but as soon people start talking about a warming climate people retreat to their political corners.  

What’s interesting about this is that the way we got here - the use of fossil fuels that powered the Industrial Revolution and brought us a society that provides incredible comforts, luxuries, doubled our lifespans, being upon verge of interplanetary travel, along with the ability to connect with like-minded individuals in the palm of our hand with a signal seemingly out of thin air - comes at a cost trade-off of throwing off the climate we’re used to.

I’m of the belief that someone or some business will be economically incentivized to remove/capture carbon soon to help balance us back out.


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[Volcanic Winter]

We’re really putting the tropical in humid subtropical.  

[the_other_guy]

23 minutes ago, North and West said:

What’s interesting about this is that the way we got here - the use of fossil fuels that powered the Industrial Revolution and brought us a society that provides incredible comforts, luxuries, doubled our lifespans, being upon verge of interplanetary travel, along with the ability to connect with like-minded individuals in the palm of our hand with a signal seemingly out of thin air - comes at a cost trade-off of throwing off the climate we’re used to.

I’m of the belief that someone or some business will be economically incentivized to remove/capture carbon soon to help balance us back out.


.

The invention of the century if that happened

[North and West]

The invention of the century if that happened

There’s definitely a market and demand for it. I think someone is going to get it to scale.


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