bluewave Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 This is the 2nd warmest January for NYC with another warmer than average week coming up. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1932 43.2 0 2 2023 43.1 7 3 1950 41.8 2 4 1990 41.4 0 5 2006 40.9 0 6 1913 40.8 0 7 1933 40.3 0 8 1937 40.2 0 9 1998 40.0 0 10 2002 39.9 0 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzwalker Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: I get it you hate me. Everytime I post you jump all over me and try to embarrass me. You win, not worth it anymore. I’m done. Not posting in here again. You finally bullied and harassed me away. Not worth the headache anymore, this has been a tit for tat game for years You don't get it. Systematically, you deliver every possible bit of info suggesting it won't snow, while ignoring info suggesting snow. You have a far greater command of meteorology than me and I respect your knowledge. But don't expect a good reaction from a forum that looks forward to snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Blizzwalker said: You don't get it. Systematically, you deliver every possible bit of info suggesting it won't snow, while ignoring info suggesting snow. You have a far greater command of meteorology than me and I respect your knowledge. But don't expect a good reaction from a forum that looks forward to snow But it literally hasn't snowed. At all. Let him have his moment 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 At least we might see some storms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is the 2nd warmest January for NYC with another warmer than average week coming up. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1932 43.2 0 2 2023 43.1 7 3 1950 41.8 2 4 1990 41.4 0 5 2006 40.9 0 6 1913 40.8 0 7 1933 40.3 0 8 1937 40.2 0 9 1998 40.0 0 10 2002 39.9 0 It should be a lock then. How are other locations doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: But it literally hasn't snowed. At all. Let him have his moment I think he's still 5 posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Please be right 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: At least we might see some storms lol Maybe we’ll even get some hail. Hey, it’s frozen precip we ain’t getting any other way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I happen to agree. The 30” is skewed by the big winters we had in the past 10 years and will likely reverse somewhat in the next 10 years. As we see here what can be given easily gets taken away. This will be the 4th of the last 5 winters that will very likely be well below “average” at Central Park. The 5th was 20-21 where we all really lucked out. The data is there to establish the real averages so it should be used. It makes no sense to not include more than 100 years of weather data. And all of the data should be easily accessible to the public, not just to us weather enthusiasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr461 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said: You don't get it. Systematically, you deliver every possible bit of info suggesting it won't snow, while ignoring info suggesting snow. You have a far greater command of meteorology than me and I respect your knowledge. But don't expect a good reaction from a forum that looks forward to snow As opposed to most others here who do exactly the opposite. With his analysis almost always included, I looked forward to a different viewpoint. It's refreshing amid all the "pattern looks good" and "GFS shows snow in 4 weeks" idiocy with no analysis behind it. Yet all are ok with that inane repetition. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Please be right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzwalker Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: But it literally hasn't snowed. At all. Let him have his moment It's not about accuracy of prediction -- it's about systematic bias-- in an unpopular direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 42 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Hand over your heart, and you are much younger than me, but have you ever seen a more pathetic winter? I may have, 97-98, but this is challenging that one. 01-02 was on par I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, Blizzwalker said: It's not about accuracy of prediction -- it's about systematic bias-- in an unpopular direction. No one can control the weather so I don't believe any bias really matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Please be right Even if somehow it’s right (it won’t be), temps are already near 40 and dew points are going up on the easterly flow so we can’t wetbulb to near freezing. Any snow would be white rain that wouldn’t accumulate. I’d say 90% chance it just starts as rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzwalker Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: But it literally hasn't snowed. At all. Let him have his moment And it had snowed for me-- not everyone is snowless. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It should be a lock then. How are other locations doing I called that in the second week of January. Won’t even be close we’re gonna sail right past it. Well guys are fighting about a flake of snow today I’m outside in shorts and a long sleeve tee raking leaves. And that says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It should be a lock then. How are other locations doing Top 3 warmest January for much of the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said: You don't get it. Systematically, you deliver every possible bit of info suggesting it won't snow, while ignoring info suggesting snow. You have a far greater command of meteorology than me and I respect your knowledge. But don't expect a good reaction from a forum that looks forward to snow But more than a few days ago, even when he and a bunch of other guys were saying NYC would get measurable snow today, I was dead certain why it wouldn't happen and I gave reasons. So if he has a bias, he didn't have it for this storm, because I was expecting even less snow than he was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 What time is it supposed to start snowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Even if somehow it’s right (it won’t be), temps are already near 40 and dew points are going up on the easterly flow so we can’t wetbulb to near freezing. Any snow would be white rain that wouldn’t accumulate. I’d say 90% chance it just starts as rain. This is no surprise, outside of that little bubble in late December temperatures have been consistently verifying as warmer than forecast. It's why I was dead certain days ago that NYC would get O or a T from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, the_other_guy said: I called that in the second week of January. It did it with ease too. Just consistently well above average everyday which is the scary part. In the past even if there were a few record warm days, there would also be some cold to follow. Not anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: The data is there to establish the real averages so it should be used. It makes no sense to not include more than 100 years of weather data. And all of the data should be easily accessible to the public, not just to us weather enthusiasts. Yes, if you use the data from the 1870s through the 1920s or so, NYC consistently averaged over 30 inches of snow every decade, and that was using the old way of measuring snow which did not account for compaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: What time is it supposed to start snowing? sometime in 2024. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is the 2nd warmest January for NYC with another warmer than average week coming up. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1932 43.2 0 2 2023 43.1 7 3 1950 41.8 2 4 1990 41.4 0 5 2006 40.9 0 6 1913 40.8 0 7 1933 40.3 0 8 1937 40.2 0 9 1998 40.0 0 10 2002 39.9 0 Bigger question is, can we catch 1932? What happened that year to make January so warm? And the climate was much colder back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 28 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: In Methuen Ma, school was closed on Monday for light rain and dripping water from snow on tree branches....the snow did not start to accumulate till after 2 pm. Parents were furious. Back in the day it took a legitimate snowstorm for school to be cancelled. Yeah like 10 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Bigger question is, can we catch 1932? What happened that year to make January so warm? And the climate was much colder back then. We'll easily catch it. Another +8 week coming up. We should blow past it You frequently mention how this is like the 80s...wrong it's a lot worse. The 80s were cold, this is another beast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzwalker Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, jr461 said: As opposed to most others here who do exactly the opposite. With his analysis almost always included, I looked forward to a different viewpoint. It's refreshing amid all the "pattern looks good" and "GFS shows snow in 4 weeks" idiocy with no analysis behind it. Yet all are ok with that inane repetition. Some get refreshed by cola, others by beer. Good to have diverse viewpoints. But there is objective predicting, then there is cheerleading against the collective sentiments of a snow enthusiast group. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 29 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I average I’d say 33-34” per year. NorthShoreWX in Smithtown is at 38”/winter over the last 25 years so maybe I average a little more being just west of him. ISP averages right around 32”. Central Park with the new averages is right about 30”. We shouldn’t expect blockbusters but there should definitely be a few decent events per winter. The "true" average for our area is probably closer to 25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 45 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said: Terrible idea. I could see if you hit like your seventh or eighth snow day having that as an emergency option, but otherwise, remote learning is a complete and utter failure for many. Only ones that really benefit are the tech companies that write all the software and sell the hardware to make it happen. why is remote learning so bad? I found in class learning completely useless....I did all my learning reading books in the library and staying ahead of the class and acing my tests without ever really listening to anything my teachers said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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