January 2023

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah I was pondering the head-fakes of this year. That being said, we are kind of following the la Nina blueprint so far. Early season snow for half the forum and neg NAO with potential in December occurred (the 2nd storm messed up the 3rd but that's another discussion). The warm/snowless January and potentially Feb. 

Late February and March are typically the other window in la Ninas. Sure we could go 11/12 warmth but return of blocking when occurence in December, la Nina tendencies, make me think that this could be legit.

Oh that's totally fair reasoning. If there is a jet extension, that's favorable for mjo propagation too. So we'll have to keep an eye on it. I'm just wrapped up nice and tight in caution flags 

[Nibor]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I get it you hate me. Everytime I post you jump all over me and try to embarrass me. You win, not worth it anymore. I’m done. Not posting in here again. You finally bullied and harassed me away. Not worth the headache anymore, this has been a tit for tat game for years

[codfishsnowman]

I think you guys are gonna wind up only slightly below normal to normal in snowfall....gut feeling

[matt8204]

3 hours ago, BxEngine said:

A bust from….what exactly? A few hours of snow? Christ man, get it together. 

Maybe he's still traumatized from March 2001 and January 2015.

[Great Snow 1717]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I get it you hate me. Everytime I post you jump all over me and try to embarrass me. You win, not worth it anymore. I’m done. Not posting in here again. You finally bullied and harassed me away. Not worth the headache anymore, this has been a tit for tat game for years

Some people have been in denial about winter 22-23 since the beginning of November....at no point in time did the actual pattern ever look all that good.

Keep posting!!!.

 

[Winterweatherlover]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I get it you hate me. Everytime I post you jump all over me and try to embarrass me. You win, not worth it anymore. I’m done. Not posting in here again. You finally bullied and harassed me away. Not worth the headache anymore, this has been a tit for tat game for years

I used to think you were a troll but you are usually right. I think the delivery upsets some people but you definitely are very knowledgeable about weather. 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah I was pondering the head-fakes of this year. That being said, we are kind of following the la Nina blueprint so far. Early season snow for half the forum and neg NAO with potential in December occurred (the 2nd storm messed up the 3rd but that's another discussion). The warm/snowless January and potentially Feb. 

Late February and March are typically the other window in la Ninas. Sure we could go 11/12 warmth but return of blocking when occurence in December, la Nina tendencies, make me think that this could be legit.

It was much more like an el nino though with the California record rains

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I get it you hate me. Everytime I post you jump all over me and try to embarrass me. You win, not worth it anymore. I’m done. Not posting in here again. You finally bullied and harassed me away. Not worth the headache anymore, this has been a tit for tat game for years

You may not believe it but people actually wondered if you were okay when you weren't posting for awhile when the snowless pattern first became clear to people.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's really early, however I have to start wondering if CPK can go through the season with under 1 inch.

If will be difficult with the favorable period coming up as well as the late season volatility, however going into Feb under 1 you have to start contemplating.

Per the below we may be heading towards phase 8 earlier than expected in February. That may be the make or break period if the 5 to 7 day window in Early Feb fails.

I believe Phase 8 leads to Blocking, which would follow the guideline of blocking late season after realizing blocking in December.

We almost had <1” in 1997-98. I suspect that we’ll avoid such a sad outcome this winter. But a lot can still go wrong.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, North and West said:

Imagine being in elementary school for that and watching TWC religiously. (And Pre-Internet)


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I didn't even have cable TV growing up (didn't care for it either.)

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Some people have been in denial about winter 22-23 since the beginning of November....at no point in time did the actual patter ever look all that good.

Keep posting!!!.

 

I don't know why some people act like it hasn't snowed in 30 years.  Honestly we've had plenty of snow over the last 2 decades.

You don't need it every year.

 

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning S19. Please stay, as in stay the course. Hate, a word of few letters with, unfortunately, a far reaching meaning applies neither to you or Bx. I believe he was replying to your post as another poster not a Moderator. We sentient sapiens are imperfect as are the models we create. Without views given on all sides we would also become unseeing. Please continue to see things as you do as will all the other (including our Will) well versed posters on our forums. Stay well, as always. ….

I can't wait until it hits 100+ this summer multiple days in a row and these same people start whining about it.

 

[weatherpruf]

22 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

Not a flake here yet and it's already above freezing.  How many days until pitchers and catchers?

sharpening the hooks and re-spooling the reels....

[Cfa]

It’s usually said in jest but we’ve literally had more salt accumulate than snow. They’ve been putting it down for no reason at all.

[gpsnavigator]

27 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Wow they cancelled school in Sparta? Itching to burn some snow days I guess, lol. I have a good friend up in Montague, wondering what she'll even see.

It's good to be cautious though, no doubt.

They called at 5:45 this morning.  All Sussex County schools are closed with the exception of one.  It's a limp pee pee of a radar right now and I even had the sun breaking through a few minutes ago.  Temp is 33 and RH is 72%. 

Maybe the radar will fill in later, and if we get some evaporation based cooling, it'll be bad for a couple of hours.  But that's a big IF.

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't know why some people act like it hasn't snowed in 30 years.  Honestly we've had plenty of snow over the last 2 decades.

You don't need it every year.

 

Some of us are getting older and don't want to wait for another decade....but there's nothing we can do about it. But I tell myself most people are happy to never see snow again once they are retired; they pity those of us who have to deal with it. Most people hate the stuff. Still, winter just doesn't feel right without it. Thing is, it's too cold to do anything else, but too warm to feel like winter. It's just cold and damp. Really depressing weather.

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, Cfa said:

It’s usually said in jest but we’ve literally had more salt accumulate than snow. They’ve been putting it down for no reason at all.

Yes my son works for the state and he said the complex is surrounded by a layer of salt. Even here they treated the streets. I mean, they are calling for a high of 46 here...come on, man....

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

They called at 5:45 this morning.  All Sussex County schools are closed with the exception of one.  It's a limp pee pee of a radar right now and I even had the sun breaking through a few minutes ago.  Temp is 33 and RH is 72%. 

Maybe the radar will fill in later, and if we get some evaporation based cooling, it'll be bad for a couple of hours.  But that's a big IF.

Surprised they still have snow days; they are able to transition to online classes for snow in some districts now. No need for snow days anymore. They do need days for bad weather when power goes out though, because they can't do online then. It was Sandy that made them rethink snow days and holidays; they used to give a 4 day break for President's day; there was so much bad weather that decade they decided it would be best to limit some holidays, especially in winter, where they were likely to have snow. Looks like that paradigm might be shifting as far as snow, but I think we see other extreme events that force closures. 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, Cfa said:

It’s usually said in jest but we’ve literally had more salt accumulate than snow. They’ve been putting it down for no reason at all.

After the Christmas arctic front came through it was comical how much salt was on the roads for the flash freeze that never happened because we had 3 hours after the precip ended until we went below freezing. 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

After the Christmas arctic front came through it was comical how much salt was on the roads for the flash freeze that never happened because we had 3 hours after the precip ended until we went below freezing. 

Hand over your heart, and you are much younger than me, but have you ever seen a more pathetic winter? I may have, 97-98, but this is challenging that one.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

After the Christmas arctic front came through it was comical how much salt was on the roads for the flash freeze that never happened because we had 3 hours after the precip ended until we went below freezing. 

That was terrible

It looked like a major snowstorm was on the way . 

[gpsnavigator]

11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Surprised they still have snow days; they are able to transition to online classes for snow in some districts now. No need for snow days anymore.

Terrible idea.  I could see if you hit like your seventh or eighth snow day having that as an emergency option, but otherwise, remote learning is a complete and utter failure for many.  Only ones that really benefit are the tech companies that write all the software and sell the hardware to make it happen.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Schools closed again today. They were also closed on Monday when we got a whole 1.5 inches. Right now 33 and light snow just started. 

[Great Snow 1717]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't know why some people act like it hasn't snowed in 30 years.  Honestly we've had plenty of snow over the last 2 decades.

You don't need it every year.

 

We don't need Greenskeeper every year but he keeps showing up!

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Hand over your heart, and you are much younger than me, but have you ever seen a more pathetic winter? I may have, 97-98, but this is challenging that one.

This is up there with the worst, 97-98 would be the one where I don’t remember some kind of snow event by now. Even 19-20 and 01-02 had some kind of minor event by late Jan. If things don’t really turn around in Feb this will certainly be one of the all time worst. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

We don't need Greenskeeper every year but he keeps showing up!

I average I’d say 33-34” per year. NorthShoreWX in Smithtown is at 38”/winter over the last 25 years so maybe I average a little more being just west of him. ISP averages right around 32”. Central Park with the new averages is right about 30”. We shouldn’t expect blockbusters but there should definitely be a few decent events per winter. 

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Schools closed again today. They were also closed on Monday when we got a whole 1.5 inches. Right now 33 and light snow just started. 

In Methuen Ma, school was closed on Monday for light rain and dripping water from snow on tree branches....the snow did not start to accumulate till after 2 pm. Parents were furious.

Back in the day it took a legitimate snowstorm for school to be cancelled.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I average I’d say 33-34” per year. NorthShoreWX in Smithtown is at 38”/winter over the last 25 years so maybe I average a little more being just west of him. ISP averages right around 32”. Central Park with the new averages is right about 30”. We shouldn’t expect blockbusters but there should definitely be a few decent events per winter. 

I've never been a fan of using "new averages". I think doing so distorts the real averages. The entire data set should be used to establish the averages....and before anyone "yells" at me, I am well aware that the official site for the weather observation(s) has changed over time.

[Brasiluvsnow]

anyone have a live radar loop they can share,,,,,,thanks

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I've never been a fan of using "new averages". I think doing so distorts the real averages. The entire data set should be used to establish the averages....and before anyone "yells" at me, I am well aware that the official site for the weather observation(s) has changed over time.

I happen to agree. The 30” is skewed by the big winters we had in the past 10 years and will likely reverse somewhat in the next 10 years. As we see here what can be given easily gets taken away. This will be the 4th of the last 5 winters that will very likely be well below “average” at Central Park. The 5th was 20-21 where we all really lucked out.