January 2023

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

NAM caved to the RGEM

What a shock, lol. There might be an inch or two of snow up in Sussex County where Walt is. 

[WX-PA]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It seems to be, it's been doing this in the summer too.

I think going forward ENSO will matter much less as these warm NW Atlantic waters will create a permanent SE Ridge near our area.

 

It's our third La Nina year in a row, so you'd have to figure the SE ridge would be a major factor, which it has.El Nino can turn into a snowy, cold winter if it's weak or moderate..Strong Nino and you know it's going to be warm.

[Winterweatherlover]

Steady as can be, this model is so good.  

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012418&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[Winterweatherlover]

30 minutes ago, lee59 said:

As you get into the Mid Hudson Valley and north and west, could be a nice thumping of snow before any mixing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If the RGEM is right not unless you are well west of the Hudson. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Steady as can be, this model is so good.  

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012418&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Last winter I remember it sucking. Was it upgraded recently? Maybe it’s just finding a bone this winter. 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Euro stopped trying and isn't even out yet 

It still shows accumulating snow to the north Bronx tomorrow, that model has really gotten a lot more whacky then it used to be.   

[Winterweatherlover]

I could see something like 3-5 inches just west of Middletown tomorrow but like less than an inch in Newburgh, thats just kind of how this winter has been going. 

[donsutherland1]

Today saw mild readings in the middle and upper 40s across the region. Newark topped out at 50°. A storm will bring snow rapidly changing to rain across the region tomorrow. New York City will see little or no accumulation, as recent guidance has backed off measurable amounts. The 18z GFS still shows a small measurable snowfall. The distant northern and western suburbs are in line for 1-3" of snow.

A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur during the second week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +16.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.254 today. This was the first positive AO reading since November 22, 2022 when the AO was +0.064.

On January 22 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.523 (RMM). The January 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.608 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.8° (8.1° above normal).

 

[snywx]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I could see something like 3-5 inches just west of Middletown tomorrow but like less than an inch in Newburgh, thats just kind of how this winter has been going. 

That’s exactly how December played out

[Winterweatherlover]

58 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Large area of winter weather advisories and warnings in the eastern U.S.  Mostly just the immediate coast in our area not under an advisory. NWS still has the city getting a little snow.

The WWA should be canceled for Rockland and Northern Westchester, I imagine Snowman19 would agree. 

[Winterweatherlover]

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Last winter I remember it sucking. Was it upgraded recently? Maybe it’s just finding a bone this winter. 

Maybe it does well with inland storms and not as well with coastals? We wouldn't know since we haven't had any of the latter this winter.   

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today saw mild readings in the middle and upper 40s across the region. Newark topped out at 50°. A storm will bring snow rapidly changing to rain across the region tomorrow. New York City will see little or no accumulation, as recent guidance has backed off measurable amounts. The 18z GFS still shows a small measurable snowfall. The distant northern and western suburbs are in line for 1-3" of snow.

A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur during the second week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +16.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.254 today. This was the first positive AO reading since November 22, 2022 when the AO was +0.064.

On January 22 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.523 (RMM). The January 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.608 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.8° (8.1° above normal).

 

Don,

 I thought you might find this interesting. I posted it in the SE forum:

Longest -AO streaks back to 1950 along with RDU temperature anomaly

 

12/25/1959-4/4/1960: 102 days/ 5 BN

2/2-4/11/1958: 69 days/ 6 BN

2/5-4/9/2013: 64 days/ 4 BN

12/23/1962-2/23/1963: 63 days/ 6 BN

11/23/2022-1/23/2023: 62 days/ 3 AN

 

 The recent -AO streak apparently ended yesterday at 62 days. What's very notable is how much warmer it has been in the SE US vs during other very long -AO streaks with an anomaly of +3 at RDU vs the other four having had anomalies of a very cold -4 to -6! And on top of that, I'm using updated 30 year normals in the calculations, meaning a warmer normal for the current streak.

[donsutherland1]

Just now, GaWx said:

Don,

 I thought you might find this interesting. I posted it in the SE forum:

Longest -AO streaks back to 1950 along with RDU temperature anomaly

 

12/25/1959-4/4/1960: 102 days/ 5 BN

2/2-4/11/1958: 69 days/ 6 BN

2/5-4/9/2013: 64 days/ 4 BN

12/23/1962-2/23/1963: 63 days/ 6 BN

11/23/2022-1/23/2023: 62 days/ 3 AN

 

 The recent -AO streak apparently ended yesterday at 62 days. What's very notable is how much warmer it has been in the SE US vs during other very long -AO streaks with an anomaly of +3 at RDU vs the other four having had anomalies of a very cold -4 to -6! And on top of that, I'm using updated 30 year normals in the calculations, meaning a warmer normal for the current streak.

Thanks for sharing.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

It's our third La Nina year in a row, so you'd have to figure the SE ridge would be a major factor, which it has.El Nino can turn into a snowy, cold winter if it's weak or moderate..Strong Nino and you know it's going to be warm.

I've seen this SE Ridge hang around regardless of the pattern.  Weak el nino is actually better for New England, might need a high end moderate to strong here to make the SE Ridge a plus by hitting it with arctic air a la PD2 or Jan 2016 or Feb 1983.

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It depends on how far you go back.

The 153 year average is 28.8 inches so the 29.8 for the 1991-2020 period is right there. We are in a 50 year period of extremes now. 1971-2000 was the lowest average on record. 2001-2020 one of the highest 20 year averages on record.

One thing that is indisputable. The 30 year averages in temperature keep going up and for most of the I95 corridor that will eventually lead to real problems getting consistent and sustainable snow.

It looks like feast or famine winters are more common and the type of winter that might be most common would be one big snowstorm and the rest of the winter is mild.

 

[snowman19]

The WWA should be canceled for Rockland and Northern Westchester, I imagine Snowman19 would agree. 

I’m sure they have their reasons. No models are showing Rockland getting 2-3 inches, not one. The Euro, which is the snowy outlier is the only one showing anything close to that if you use 10:1 ratios, which tomorrow won’t be, the Kuchera is much less. Everything else (12K/3K NAM, RGEM, GFS, HRDPS, CMC, HRRR, ICON, UKMET, FV3, HREF) don’t show that kind of accumulation

[lee59]

According to Upton:

High res models indicating strongest mid-level frontogenesis
develops to the north and west of the coastal plain Wed morning
into early afternoon. This will actually have the highest
likelihood and intensity of precip to develop across Interior
portions of NE NJ, Lower Hud and SW CT Wed morning into early
afternoon (thermal profile plenty cold enough for snow). With
that said, can not rule out that this development could be a bit
farther south into the coastal plain (although a lower
probability). Most indications are for snow development to hold
off until mid morning or later.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

 

https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/snowmaps2/Great Atlantic coastal snowstorms.pdf

Was just reading through this today getting myself depressed, some of these winters had to have been absolute blockbusters. I’m sure 30 year averages throughout this period at times were higher than today, though climatologically of course the LIA was very different to now. It does suggest IMHO that temperature will become a bigger and bigger issue as time goes on. For all we know the less snowy periods of the 80’s etc that are often mentioned were the actual anomalies, when going off a paltry number of years of data. 
 

I just always see people argue the less snowy periods are inherently more normal than the snowy periods, and I don’t necessarily know if we can say that for sure. Just my thoughts on it.

Hey thanks for that.  I downloaded that PDF!

Now I have something for you-- I read this earlier today, and wow, it's amazing how deadly the poisonous gases from volcanoes can be even when they're not erupting!

 

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-history-and-mystery-of-russia-s-valley-of-death?utm_source=pocket-newtab

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, lee59 said:

The last 30 yr. average for snowfall at Central Park has to be one of the highest 30 yr. averages since records have been taken. Maybe this is just the law of averages taking over and we got a little spoiled.

at this point you can't ignore what is going on in the rest of the world, this isn't an "unlucky" winter, it's happening all over the world.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, North and West said:

Re: this winter working out, where I think we are psychologically.


.

I love new paradigms (including in science), they force quick changes and revolutions, they're really a good thing because humans are prone to social inertia and resistance to change.  Read what Kuhn had to say on new paradigms.

 

[lee59]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

at this point you can't ignore what is going on in the rest of the world, this isn't an "unlucky" winter, it's happening all over the world.

 

The winters are more mild now by a few degrees, but the moisture has also increased. So winter snows have increased, at least for now. I think this winter is simply bad because of the pattern were in. If those storms were off the coast and not inland runners, there would be a lot more happy people on the forum.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

The winters are more mild now by a few degrees, but the moisture has also increased. So winter snows have increased, at least for now. I think this winter is simply bad because of the pattern were in. If those storms were off the coast and not inland runners, there would be a lot more happy people on the forum.

What that does is create a pattern where you have to depend on one storm for most of your snow, a la 2015-16 or to a lesser extent last winter.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Steady as can be, this model is so good.  

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012418&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Consistent doesn't always mean correct though. Cmc/Rgem have had their bad moments also. It gives me .5 inch and it has for days. It's wanted nothing to do with a front end dump all the way to Albany. The last time it showed that when other models showed differently it turned out to be correct. 

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

at this point you can't ignore what is going on in the rest of the world, this isn't an "unlucky" winter, it's happening all over the world.

 

It's breaking through to the MSM now, and I just saw a Columbia scientist comment that while it is due to local variation, it is also due to climate change. So we are going to be seeing more winters with less snow. Snowed in ME yesterday, around 3-6 from my SIL's photos; she wants an electric snow blower to deal with these "nuisance" events...

[mannynyc]

11 minutes ago, lee59 said:

According to Upton:

High res models indicating strongest mid-level frontogenesis
develops to the north and west of the coastal plain Wed morning
into early afternoon. This will actually have the highest
likelihood and intensity of precip to develop across Interior
portions of NE NJ, Lower Hud and SW CT Wed morning into early
afternoon (thermal profile plenty cold enough for snow). With
that said, can not rule out that this development could be a bit
farther south into the coastal plain (although a lower
probability). Most indications are for snow development to hold
off until mid morning or later.

[lee59]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What that does is create a pattern where you have to depend on one storm for most of your snow, a la 2015-16 or to a lesser extent last winter.

Yes it is the big snowstorms that have really increased our average over the past 20 years. 

[Winterweatherlover]

7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Consistent doesn't always mean correct though. Cmc/Rgem have had their bad moments also. It gives me .5 inch and it has for days. It's wanted nothing to do with a front end dump all the way to Albany. The last time it showed that when other models showed differently it turned out to be correct. 

It might be overdoing the warmth along the hudson but I'd expect it to be closer to reality than some of these other models. In all the recent storms I can remember it has done very well.  

[Winterweatherlover]

7 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

If NYC is going to get measurable snow it better be snowing by 1 pm tomorrow, if not no chance. 

[Winterweatherlover]

18 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The winters are more mild now by a few degrees, but the moisture has also increased. So winter snows have increased, at least for now. I think this winter is simply bad because of the pattern were in. If those storms were off the coast and not inland runners, there would be a lot more happy people on the forum.

Definitely, if we had more cold and this storm track we'd just be getting a bunch of snow to ice to rain events, if we had this lack of cold and storms tracking offshore we'd be getting rain to heavy snow events. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

11 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

It might be overdoing the warmth along the hudson but I'd expect it to be closer to reality than some of these other models. In all the recent storms I can remember it has done very well.  

Most other models give me (20 miles north of I84) between 1.5 and 3, not unreasonable. Nam does give me close to 4 which is probably too much.