January 2023

[snowman19]

ICON nada, CMC nada, GFS less than one inch even up here. This winter is a dumpster fire shit show. NYC probably breaks the all time record now

[snowman19]

If the trough axis is over the Midwest it promotes the strong SE ridge, so we get cutters. We need the Pacific to cooperate and move the West Coast ridge inland. Otherwise the general storm track will favor cutters. The big PV over Canada if that happens would just mean it gets colder in between cutters/SWFEs. We’re also not seeing signs of blocking which would force redevelopments south of us. 

I doubt we score in the 2/1-2/7 time frame. No -NAO or 50/50 low. I think whatever happens is an inland runner. This winter is on life support

[Winter Wizard]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I doubt we score in the 2/1-2/7 time frame. No -NAO or 50/50 low. I think whatever happens is an inland runner. This winter is on life support

You can still score a decent overrunning event if things align correctly, but those usually favor New England. Does not scream KU though without those features. 

[matt8204]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

The problem is the modeling always seems to be good when it shows no snow....why is that I wonder?

 

Seems like more ingredients have to come together in order to get snow.  It's a more complicated picture, so it's harder to get a handle on that than if models show rain or that we'll be in the clear.  

[Winterweatherlover]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

ICON nada, CMC nada, GFS less than one inch even up here. This winter is a dumpster fire shit show. NYC probably breaks the all time record now

Agree nothing for tomorrow and Jan likely goes snowless for NYC. Next threat to avoid a snowless winter is 2/1 timeframe.

[Winterweatherlover]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I doubt we score in the 2/1-2/7 time frame. No -NAO or 50/50 low. I think whatever happens is an inland runner. This winter is on life support

Depends how we define score. A snowstorm no, an inch maybe. 

[winterwx21]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

ICON nada, CMC nada, GFS less than one inch even up here. This winter is a dumpster fire shit show. NYC probably breaks the all time record now

UKMET and HRRR also say you have to go to northwest NJ to see a little snow accumulation. Yep it's looking very likely that NYC will break the record. 

[EasternLI]

7 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Is the SE ridge becoming a more permanent fixture of our winter weather? Or is it more due to the recurring La Niñas we’ve been having? I have no way of analyzing that outside of finding it concerning how it’s a recurring problem almost regardless of the pattern, and how it seemed to pop up intrusively less often in the past. 

Again this is beyond the scope of my knowledge but if it’s conclusively tied to SST’s in the Atlantic that seems like it’ll continue to be a big problem. I’m sure there’s more to it than that (I hope so). 

Just wondering aloud. 

JMHO, I feel like it's la nina. It feels semi permanent because we're dealing with this multi year la nina. There was a time I recall, some years ago now, where the +PNA was viewed in the same way. When we had a more el nino like phase going on. It'll likely change, it all works in cycles.

We need to be careful though in current times. The Pacific warm pool area likes to drive a -PNA. Depending upon how it's positioned. This is why la nina often does that. It's a prominent component in these. That area is also expected to continue to expand and get warmer as the years go by. It's a huge reason why we'll often bring up that particular feature. It's very important. But recall the discussion about gradients. La nina amplifies this effect by increasing that gradient with cool water to the east. 

[MANDA]

15 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Agree nothing for tomorrow and Jan likely goes snowless for NYC. Next threat to avoid a snowless winter is 2/1 timeframe.

I believe tomorrow is safe for NYC.  Don't see measurable for the park tomorrow.   Highly unlikely though that they go the entire season with zero.  That would be absolutely historic but something to shoot for I guess.  Just don't believe that happens.  Would be historic just to get through D/J/F with zero.  They have to be able to pick up something along the line between now and the end of March.

[Winterweatherlover]

The RGEM is pretty ugly even inland tomorrow unless you have elevation, has less than an inch I87 on east up to Albany. 

[snowman19]

UKMET and HRRR also say you have to go to northwest NJ to see a little snow accumulation. Yep it's looking very likely that NYC will break the record. 

The 3K NAM has less than an inch for Rockland, nothing south of there. Ditto for the Ukie. This one is probably DOA. We may start as rain tomorrow.

[jm1220]

37 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

You can still score a decent overrunning event if things align correctly, but those usually favor New England. Does not scream KU though without those features. 

Yeah maybe we can get lucky and score some front end snow in a SWFE type event where we have a departing high. But the high can be 10 trillion MB, it’s going to scoot out of the way if there’s no blocking/50-50 to keep it in place as a low is able to cut for the lakes. It may eventually redevelop but as you said that’s good for New England not us. If tomorrow’s event had a colder airmass in front we probably would be able to score some snow but we have a marginal crap airmass so it’ll be rain for 90% of us. 

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I believe tomorrow is safe for NYC.  Don't see measurable for the park tomorrow.   Highly unlikely though that they go the entire season with zero.  That would be absolutely historic but something to shoot for I guess.  Just don't believe that happens.  Would be historic just to get through D/J/F with zero.  They have to be able to pick up something along the line between now and the end of March.

My bet is something eventually happens where NYC gets a quick 1-3 or 2-4” event which in even the most horrendous winters happens but even that requires some luck or a change in the pattern. We can’t count on snow in lousy patterns at our latitude. 

[wishcast_hater]

No one want to post maps even if its rain? 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I doubt we score in the 2/1-2/7 time frame. No -NAO or 50/50 low. I think whatever happens is an inland runner. This winter is on life support

Overrunning or SWE will be the best bet. I agree if the period doesn't produce the odds of a literal snowless winter for NYC goes up significantly 

[brooklynwx99]

in this type of gradient pattern, we could either get either of these solutions. there really isn't any kind of way to figure out which is going to happen based off of OP runs, so take them with a grain of salt for the time being and we'll see how things clear up over the next several days

this is still the best window we've had with a TON of available cold in SE Canada and a bunch of shortwaves. this period could be prolific, or it could absolutely suck. keep your mind open  

[brooklynwx99]

I just can't really count this out from a synoptic perspective

split flow, TPV lobes in SE Canada providing an extremely cold source region, a boundary nearby... there should be chances here for legit overrunning

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

ICON nada, CMC nada, GFS less than one inch even up here. This winter is a dumpster fire shit show. NYC probably breaks the all time record now

Nope

Watch we get 1 big snowstorm and that's it 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nope

Watch we get 1 big snowstorm and that's it 

I’d gladly settle for a 1994-95 type one and done winter. Each of our 2020-21 storms where I ended up 45” for the winter and had near 18” snowpack in Feb had rain at some point. That definitely won’t happen this winter but maybe we can get a 2/22/08 or 2/4/95 type situation and get 6” before rain and some of it survives to the end. Can’t expect much better until we see blocking or a better PNA ridge that would force a further east storm tracks. 

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d gladly settle for a 1994-95 type one and done winter. Each of our 2020-21 storms where I ended up 45” for the winter and had near 18” snowpack in Feb had rain at some point. That definitely won’t happen this winter but maybe we can get a 2/22/08 or 2/4/95 type situation and get 6” before rain and some of it survives to the end. Can’t expect much better until we see blocking or a better PNA ridge that would force a further east storm tracks. 

We always talk about these one and done winters where we threaded the needle. With how warm our winters are getting now I think that will become a thing of the past. It’s seems like now we need the perfect set up just to get a few inches 

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

They'll blow snow on Superstar in April if they have too.

I don't know if they will have enough cold then, but then watch April be a string of 30s for highs and low 20s for lows with drizzle during the day just because. 

[mannynyc]

I’m not hopeful we will get measurable snow tomorrow but I’m not as pessimistic as some people. There will be cold air in place, and a change in just 20 miles could be the difference between snow and rain. This is not a situation where snow is missing us 100 miles north, Also, it’s just more fun to be optimistic. 

[mannynyc]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

No one want to post maps even if its rain? 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We always talk about these one and done winters where we threaded the needle. With how warm our winters are getting now I think that will become a thing of the past. It’s seems like now we need the perfect set up just to get a few inches 

I think this year in particular is just a bad year caused by pattern failures. I do agree we’re going to eventually face a problem where warmth is a primary issue, but look at last January as an example. Plenty cold. ACY had a huge snowstorm (unfortunately it was south of me, I received nothing but virga). The event after that hit the entire area including me for nearly half a foot because it was cold enough. And 1/29 blasted me, near the coast, for 16 glorious inches at 22f during time of snowfall. That’s what you get when there’s cold available and in the mix. 

Wasn’t a particularly active or great winter, but there was available cold that made a couple events work. Once that stops happening we have a problem for sure. 

[SnoSki14]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We always talk about these one and done winters where we threaded the needle. With how warm our winters are getting now I think that will become a thing of the past. It’s seems like now we need the perfect set up just to get a few inches 

I think that's an exaggeration. Our last MECS was only 2 years ago. 

Eventually this will be the case but not yet. Sometimes you just get bad winters with bad patterns and that's it like the 80s or latter 90s. 

One thing we are seeing is much more extreme variations.

If we do get zilch this winter I wouldn't be surprised if we get some crazy snowy winter next year.

[snowman19]

The Euro must be running late

[forkyfork]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think that's an exaggeration. Our last MECS was only 2 years ago. 

Eventually this will be the case but not yet. Sometimes you just get bad winters with bad patterns and that's it like the 80s or latter 90s. 

One thing we are seeing is much more extreme variations.

If we do get zilch this winter I wouldn't be surprised if we get some crazy snowy winter next year.

we had lots of cold and nickel and dime events during the "bad" 80s. this is a complete shutout with a +11 january departure at ewr

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

we had lots of cold and nickel and dime events during the "bad" 80s. this is a complete shutout with a +11 january departure at ewr

So even a +7 January would've produced snow. We need a warmest on record to get shutout

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

So even a +7 January would've produced snow 

i picked a random 80s january at ewr and got 1981. -8.8 with 6.9" of snow

[North and West]

i picked a random 80s january at ewr and got 1981. -8.8 with 6.9" of snow

6.9?




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