January 2023

[snowman19]

Euro with the cut back for Wednesday. It just doesn’t want to snow here this winter

[wishcast_hater]

Major bust on low temps here. Was forecast to get to 19 but only went down to 28. Unbelievable.


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[snywx]

[SnoSki14]

Early Feb will be the best chance of snow for the season. Cold air bleeding south and clashing against the SE ridge.

These gradients can sometimes result in tons of snow.

MJO phase 3 is also quite favorable for us and snow climo maxes out

After that La Nina Feb fully takes over most likely with late Feb into early March the next chance at something. 

It would be hard to dodge the coming period with nothing. I doubt the futility records will stand. 

[North and West]

There have been “threats” since before Thanksgiving. Remember the “threat” Thanksgiving weekend that was hyped for days and days and turned into 60 degrees and all rain? A winter of “threats”, “great patterns”, “amazing, historic setups” and digital snow on 240+ hour model runs. Soon, we are going to be out of time

Do you root for snow or do you root to be a contrarian?

Not a leading question, or think you’re wrong or right, just wondering the motivation.


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[snowman19]

Do you root for snow or do you root to be a contrarian?

Not a leading question, or think you’re wrong or right, just wondering the motivation.


.

I’m simply stating what has been going on the last 3 months

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m simply stating what has been going on the last 3 months

There have been a few head fakes with the pattern in the mid to long range but nothing has came out of them 

[North and West]

I’m simply stating what has been going on the last 3 months

I’m all for reconvening at Thanksgiving. This year isn’t it.

(With that said, I’m only two years removed from a very snowy February… which is when our puppy came home (January 31, 2021))

There’s a path I had to dig out for him as he was potty training.



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[Volcanic Winter]

Wow I hit 32 overnight, deep winter has set in. 

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Wow I hit 32 overnight, deep winter has set in. 

It's a brisk late autumn day....LOL. Just brought in the garbage cans while out in shirtsleeves....

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Early Feb will be the best chance of snow for the season. Cold air bleeding south and clashing against the SE ridge.

These gradients can sometimes result in tons of snow.

MJO phase 3 is also quite favorable for us and snow climo maxes out

After that La Nina Feb fully takes over most likely with late Feb into early March the next chance at something. 

It would be hard to dodge the coming period with nothing. I doubt the futility records will stand. 

Generally true ( though in 2011 after an epic Jan that was all she wrote ) and I hope we can salvage an event out of it, but I think we make a run at a record this year and likely see nothing substantial. Just based on pure speculation.

[EasternLI]

Feels like watching a bad rerun of a TV show looking at ensembles. There is some cold going to be dumped on this side of the planet. True. Due to the ridging over Alaska. Problem I'm seeing, is that it's dumping into western Canada first and would need time to bleed east. This is normal but this is all still in motion. 

It looks like there's a Pacific wave break which will give this a shove to the east. So yes, this would suggest a cold shot in our area. In early February as a result. 

However that looks really transient as by doing this, once that trough is pushed east it breaks. Because another Pacific wave break pinches off the ridge by Alaska and it starts to retrograde to Russia. 

So when that trough breaks in the east it is replaced with a ridge. As we've seen displayed before during this season. So I think this all means a very transient cold shot in early February. There's a chance to pull off something with this progression as some select few ensemble members suggest. However it would take some impeccable timing to accomplish. Which we have yet to witness with basically anything this season. This is all based off what the ensemble means are showing this morning anyway. Gefs displays the same general idea as well. 

[Volcanic Winter]

On my Tempest near border of Toms River and Manchester, for the month of Jan I’ve averaged 41.9. High max of 68.4 on 1/4 and minimum low of 25.3 on 1/8. My average low right now is 22 and haven’t hit it once this month. 

Dec I averaged 36.5 with a low min of 7. Dec averaged significantly colder than Jan to this point. That’s probably not especially common, eh?  

Ugly winter so far. As someone who likes seasonal chill and cold presses I’m happy at least Dec offered that to some extent. Better than whatever this is right now…

[Great Snow 1717]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There have been a few head fakes with the pattern in the mid to long range but nothing has came out of them 

It is why I have said for months it is best to wait to see if a more favorable pattern actually becomes established.  

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

On my Tempest near border of Toms River and Manchester, for the month of Jan I’ve averaged 41.9. High max of 68.4 on 1/4 and minimum low of 25.3 on 1/8. My average low right now is 22 and haven’t hit it once this month. 

Dec I averaged 36.5 with a low min of 7. Dec averaged significantly colder than Jan to this point. That’s probably not especially common, eh?  

Ugly winter so far. As someone who likes seasonal chill and cold presses I’m happy at least Dec offered that to some extent. Better than whatever this is right now…

It's been an awful stretch-also overcast with numerous rainstorms.    

[CIK62]

The last 8 days of January are averaging      39degs.(34/45) or +6.

Month to date is       43.2[+9.4].          January should end at    42.2[+8.5] "Second Place".

Reached 39 here yesterday.

Today:    42-44,wind w.-breezy early, variable clouds, 35 tomorrow AM.

The closest we come to 100% on getting below 32 in the next 16:    In the Feb.03-05 period, where sub-zero was showing yesterday on the 18Z.        I think the best  we can hope for now is an accidental winter period, not even 10 days long?      The chance for an inch of snow+, is in approximately the same condition of course.     Near 0 till Feb. 01.

 

36*(68%RH) here at 6am.       37* at 8am.     40* at 10am.      41* at 11am.      43*at Noon.       44* at 1pm.       46* at 1:30pm.      Reached 47* at 3pm.         43* at 4pm.      41* at 5pm.       40* at 9pm.

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Because we have to combine this info with temperatures (which are warmer than they were back in the 80s.) The temperatures even with blocking have become warmer than they used to be.

Also I have bad allergies today, from this @!#$%^ wind.  To now be having allergies in Januaries is something I hadn't thought possible.

 

I think we need more information.

We will have 4 below average snowfall seasons in 5 years. If we get 1 above average and 1 average snowfall winter in the next 5 we will match the 90s 

Now, if we only get 1 average or above average snowfall winter over next 5, then we at least have some evidence.

Also, if we go 20 years with less than 5 average to below average snowfall winters. 

The problem when correlating CC to snowfall is that we have had a wretched stretch from 1970 through 1999, so it will take a LOT to definitively correlate the two.

Also who knows how CC will ultimately affect our snowfall chances. Some of those terrible 80s winters where all the snow was to our south may end up squarely hitting us. Now our 80s patter repeat could be historically snowy.

To sum up, nobody at this time can make a definitive statement that the current (only 5 year) stretch is "the new norm". It's impossible to know. We need more time.

[snowman19]

Feels like watching a bad rerun of a TV show looking at ensembles. There is some cold going to be dumped on this side of the planet. True. Due to the ridging over Alaska. Problem I'm seeing, is that it's dumping into western Canada first and would need time to bleed east. This is normal but this is all still in motion. 

It looks like there's a Pacific wave break which will give this a shove to the east. So yes, this would suggest a cold shot in our area. In early February as a result. 

However that looks really transient as by doing this, once that trough is pushed east it breaks. Because another Pacific wave break pinches off the ridge by Alaska and it starts to retrograde to Russia. 

So when that trough breaks in the east it is replaced with a ridge. As we've seen displayed before during this season. So I think this all means a very transient cold shot in early February. There's a chance to pull off something with this progression as some select few ensemble members suggest. However it would take some impeccable timing to accomplish. Which we have yet to witness with basically anything this season. This is all based off what the ensemble means are showing this morning anyway. Gefs displays the same general idea as well. 

Agree with you. If we don’t score in the first week of February, we are probably done until March, maybe. Not having the SSW may have screwed March. I think the pattern goes to hell after 2/7

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Agree with you. If we don’t score in the first week of February, we are probably done until March, maybe. Not having the SSW may have screwed March. I think the pattern goes to hell after 2/7

I hope we roast, none of this crappy rain every other day depressing setup.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Do you root for snow or do you root to be a contrarian?

Not a leading question, or think you’re wrong or right, just wondering the motivation.


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New here?

 

he loves popping peoples winter balloons. Like a grinch for snow People were actually looking for him this winter as he would thrive in the misery of the board….and then he showed up haha

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

43 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Feels like watching a bad rerun of a TV show looking at ensembles. There is some cold going to be dumped on this side of the planet. True. Due to the ridging over Alaska. Problem I'm seeing, is that it's dumping into western Canada first and would need time to bleed east. This is normal but this is all still in motion. 

It looks like there's a Pacific wave break which will give this a shove to the east. So yes, this would suggest a cold shot in our area. In early February as a result. 

However that looks really transient as by doing this, once that trough is pushed east it breaks. Because another Pacific wave break pinches off the ridge by Alaska and it starts to retrograde to Russia. 

So when that trough breaks in the east it is replaced with a ridge. As we've seen displayed before during this season. So I think this all means a very transient cold shot in early February. There's a chance to pull off something with this progression as some select few ensemble members suggest. However it would take some impeccable timing to accomplish. Which we have yet to witness with basically anything this season. This is all based off what the ensemble means are showing this morning anyway. Gefs displays the same general idea as well. 

So far the Blocking has not returned as it typically does following blocking in December. 

I know we all expect it/fear if for April.

[Volcanic Winter]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I hope we roast, none of this crappy rain every other day depressing setup.

The problem I have with this, is that it all but guarantees we get nothing and have no chances. Have to have some cold around to get snow. Even average temps will still work. If we completely go roasty toasty then it well and truly is over. 

I get what you’re saying, “if it’s not going to snow it may as well be warm.” Reasonable, except we can’t know precisely how many snow chances we’ll have and how many would be closer with a better air mass. Better off taking whatever seasonal cold we can get and hoping we get lucky. IMHO. Of course it doesn’t matter anyway since our thoughts / emotions / wants and needs don’t dictate the weather (if they did, NJ would be Siberia - sorry guys ).

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The problem I have with this, is that it all but guarantees we get nothing and have no chances. Have to have some cold around to get snow. Even average temps will still work. If we completely go roasty toasty then it well and truly is over. 

I get what you’re saying, “if it’s not going to snow it may as well be warm.” Reasonable, except we can’t know precisely how many snow chances we’ll have and how many would be closer with a better air mass. Better off taking whatever seasonal cold we can get and hoping we get lucky. IMHO. Of course it doesn’t matter anyway since our thoughts / emotions / wants and needs don’t dictate the weather .

I mean we still have until the MJO gets out of phase 3 to score something. Would not be surprised with a moderate event. How long does it take to get back to 8?

[the_other_guy]

59 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

It's a brisk late autumn day....LOL. Just brought in the garbage cans while out in shirtsleeves....

It is colder in Richmond this morning than NYC.

Says it all

[Volcanic Winter]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

It is colder in Richmond this morning than NYC.

Says it all

Yeah the UHI seems especially brutal lately. I’m not well versed in the mechanics of that outside the obvious. Does it get accentuated by a warmer pattern? I check NYC temps often and the lows in particular are really jarring. 

[snowman19]

I mean we still have until the MJO gets out of phase 3 to score something. Would not be surprised with a moderate event. How long does it take to get back to 8?

It might propagate out into the Pacific in early March? I don’t know, I’m starting to think March isn’t going to be all that good. If the SPV restrengthens mid-late February, I think it’s over

[the_other_guy]

6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah the UHI seems especially brutal lately. I’m not well versed in the mechanics of that outside the obvious. Does it get accentuated by a warmer pattern? I check NYC temps often and the lows in particular are really jarring. 

yes, it does. whenever there’s a transition to a warmer pattern that night prior and the nights of the pattern experience particularly high UHI effects.

 

I posted about this in December and somebody responded with a pretty thorough analysis of it having to do with the wind vs radiational cooling. 

 

There’s a bit more there though. The overnight temperatures have been rising due to increased moisture in air (humidity). This is particularly noticeable in the summer, but goes on throughout the year. However, the UHI seems to be particularly affected by this phenomenon.

 

 

[EasternLI]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

So far the Blocking has not returned as it typically does following blocking in December. 

I know we all expect it/fear if for April.

We have zero shot at that blocking for the reliably foreseeable future IMO. With the failed ssw attempt pushing down +AO conditions upon the troposphere. That would need to subside first. Then, after that, something needs to force it. We've got no signs of any of that happening anytime soon. This is why I was viewing that event as being very important.

[EasternLI]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It might propagate out into the Pacific in early March? I don’t know, I’m starting to think March isn’t going to be all that good. If the SPV restrengthens mid-late February, I think it’s over

Lag effects from the imminent phase 3 forcing is going to want to shift the vortex towards Alaska beyond what we're seeing now I think. March I'm not sure, always a tricky month. But I feel like north America could be in rough shape in terms of cold if it plays out like that. 

[snywx]

12z NAM bringing the goods to the I-84 crew.  warning criteria