mannynyc Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 32 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Doesn't matter much yet but 0z HRRR says the snowless streak torches on for NYC through Wed. It has any accumulating front end snow N of the city and immediately to rain elsewhere. Long range HRRR is notoriously unreliable. (As you implied) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 That 18z GFS for next weekend tho.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 All Right so this isn't North Dakota. But it is the 18Z GFS, a known drug abuser, I mean data abuser: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, mannynyc said: Long range HRRR is notoriously unreliable. (As you implied) Unfortunately the new NAM totally agrees with it. All rain for the city, overrunning goes way north and nails SNE/upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Unfortunately the new NAM totally agrees with it. All rain for the city, overrunning goes way north and nails SNE/upstate NY. Nam has been awful. I think the verdict is still out but it continues to be very difficult to get accumulating snow at Central Park. And anything frozen that falls would be over quickly not lasting more than 45 minutes if that. Models could look still different by tomorrow. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Nam has been awful. I think the verdict is still out but it continues to be very difficult to get accumulating snow at Central Park. And anything frozen that falls would be over quickly not lasting more than 45 minutes if that. Models could look still different by tomorrow. WX/PT I'm only paying attention to the RGEM anymore, every other model is horrible and flip flops every few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Nam has been awful. I think the verdict is still out but it continues to be very difficult to get accumulating snow at Central Park. And anything frozen that falls would be over quickly not lasting more than 45 minutes if that. Models could look still different by tomorrow. WX/PT I'm at the acceptance/"what can go wrong goes wrong" stage of this winter. My expectations are nil so if something does happen I'll be thrilled for the 45 minutes it happens for. Once we get into these New England snow favored patterns they usually stay that way it seems. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Everytime the models look good for us they either shift north or west. We can't win this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Everytime the models look good for us they either shift north or west. We can't win this season Just trust the RGEM, it doesn't tease, it's been mainly all rain for NYC all along. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Just trust the RGEM, it doesn't tease, it's been mainly all rain for NYC all along. It's gotten to the point that when we're at hour 84 we should just ignore the NAM and trust the RGEM. It's amazing how much more accurate RGEM is than NAM at that range. NAM doesn't seem to wake up until you get inside 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 It looks like the RGEM shows a small accumulation for the city, less than an inch. I hope but won't be surprised if there is no accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, lee59 said: It looks like the RGEM shows a small accumulation for the city, less than an inch. I hope but won't be surprised if there is no accumulation. Yea the 10:1 map has 0.1 inch but I wouldn't use that for this storm. Kuchera is nothing on the 0Z run. Window for snow is 18z to 0Z and at 18Z it's 37 degrees in NYC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 54 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If the overrunning would come in early enough we could overcome the marginal airmass for a while, but models are shifting to any of that happening north of us. So we wait until the main precip area hits, by which time the ESE wind warms up the boundary layer too much in the city. Makes sense is right and it's what happens in 90% of these. We get the lucky 10% every once in a while like 2/22/08, 12/14/03 etc but these screw jobs are the norm. Boston to Albany might get another few inches or more and continue leaping out ahead of us since it's looking like they'll be the area the overrunning hits. 2/22/08 was amazing and you're right, it came in in the middle of the night! I don't think it was a Lakes Cutter like this one is either and both the air and water were a lot colder than they are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Yea the 10:1 map has 0.1 inch but I wouldn't use that for this storm. Kuchera is nothing on the 0Z run. Window for snow is 18z to 0Z and at 18Z it's 37 degrees in NYC. I can't believe I am rooting for .01 inch of snow for Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Yea the 10:1 map has 0.1 inch but I wouldn't use that for this storm. Kuchera is nothing on the 0Z run. Window for snow is 18z to 0Z and at 18Z it's 37 degrees in NYC. 37 sounds like a rain/snow mix....how low does the temperature get during the storm? In my experience it has to be 36 degrees for snow to stick at all and that's only when it's falling at least an inch an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: 37 sounds like a rain/snow mix....how low does the temperature get during the storm? In my experience it has to be 36 degrees for snow to stick at all and that's only when it's falling at least an inch an hour. The RGEM has LI in the 40s the whole storm, it might be a bit too warm but I think you get the sense how this is going..... NYC 37 is the lowest it gets on the RGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 53 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's not true at all. All the cold will shift to our side When? The operative word is "will" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: The RGEM has LI in the 40s the whole storm, it might be a bit too warm but I think you get the sense how this is going..... NYC 37 is the lowest it gets on the RGEM. 37 is rain/snow mix, we can get a small accumulation if it gets to 36 and falls down hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: 37 is rain/snow mix, we can get a small accumulation if it gets to 36 and falls down hard enough. Evaporational cooling probably takes it down to 35-36. Depends how heavy it comes down. If its moderate-heavy should get 0.1 at least, if it's light no chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Temps for snow on RGEM. Looks lower than 37. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 37 gives that mist and when it gets heavy big wet flakes that don’t stick. stick a fork in this winter please I can’t take any more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 0z GFS essentially unchanged. Still showing snow in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 14 minutes ago, mannynyc said: Temps for snow on RGEM. Looks lower than 37. No precip yet at 16Z on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, mannynyc said: 0z GFS essentially unchanged. Still showing snow in the city It has the overrunning coming through our area so that's positive at least. But it's pretty much on its own. Just about every other model has it going well north from I-84 north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: No precip yet at 16Z on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 It has the overrunning coming through our area so that's positive at least. But it's pretty much on its own. Just about every other model has it going well north from I-84 north. The GFS is still caving it’s almost as bad as the NAM. This is what it’s showing now and the cave still isn’t done: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023012400&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Ukie…total whiff https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023012400&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS is still caving it’s almost as bad as the NAM. This is what it’s showing now and the cave still isn’t done: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023012400&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= That's the same depth as 18z. There is no cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 That's the same depth as 18z. There is no cave.Let’s see what it looks like at 0z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Nothing of interest for as far as the models can reasonably see for the 55th day in a row or something like that. I vaguely remember some threats of interest in late November. The mid-range modeling has been really good. Unfortunately that has meant really boring tracking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now