January 2023

[EasternLI]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Most attention goes to the E Pacific for the ENSO SST changes but it's also about the contrast with the W Pacific. The cold Nina E Pacific isn't all that cold, but the scorching W Pacific enhances the Nina pattern. It'll be interesting to see if the next Nino can cause that to shift.

Exactly.

These are the important factors to watch for. This also applies to the PDO. It's perhaps far more important than it gets credit for from most. Check out this year. La nina with negative PDO. So there's a contrast, albeit it was stronger earlier in the season.

Whatever enso is, are less effective in the Pacific without this contrast. Not saying zero, just less. This is a weakening la nina, probably not the best example. It's the same thing for el nino, but opposite anomalies. It becomes a lot easier for one to see the difference between enso events and their outcomes, with these general concepts. We get the same general idea from the jet diagram. It's easy to see how these contrasts factors into the equation in a big way by strengthening or weakening these circulations. It's all such a fine balance, which I know you know. Maybe this helps others understand how it all goes together. 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

% already back under 100 for that 1" of snow in the next 16 days.       Dead Already.      Gee, We Hardly Got to Know You.

In addition, ACCUWEATHER has cancelled the rest of the winter for the Coastal Northeast.        This is the second Death Notice issued.    

Problem is the tightening up of the SPV and that another warming event will come too late for a coastal region, snow wise.      Spring could be partially BN, at least early on, that is.

So the GFS says an 80-90% chance of Central Park getting an inch of snow. Would be nice to see that Wednesday but I have my doubts. Anything measurable would be good.

[wishcast_hater]

Finished the day with 3”, that brings my total for this season to 8”.


.

[Rjay]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s not often I agree with you but this is spot on. I personally think we do not get the futility record though.

Idk man.  I think it's weenie bs. 

[Volcanic Winter]

I do think we’ll see Niña shenanigans for most of Feb. I also think and hope between now and Feb 10th is probably our window to luck into something until maybe March again.  Dispiriting, but hoping we can find some way to make it happen the next couple weeks. 

My bday is in early Feb, so it’d be nice to get something for the damn near blood sacrifice the area has made this winter so far. Honestly I’m good with a couple inches, would just like my house to look like winter once and then we’ll go from there. 

[MANDA]

Don't look now but GFS is back to glacier building mode to open February.  I'll say one thing about this winter so far.  I've not lost a wink of sleep over any incoming storm.  

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Don't look now but GFS is back to glacier building mode to open February.  I'll say one thing about this winter so far.  I've not lost a wink of sleep over any incoming storm.  

Gfs is drunk

[Cfa]

A few hours ago I was near Bald Hill (~300 ft ASL) when it flipped from rain to light snow and then rain again on the other side. Never experienced that before.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

But how do you know this is the case already? If this has happened numerous times in the past, for longer periods, how do we know?

I mean if we go 4 more years and only one is above average? However no way to tell yet.

Because we have to combine this info with temperatures (which are warmer than they were back in the 80s.) The temperatures even with blocking have become warmer than they used to be.

Also I have bad allergies today, from this @!#$%^ wind.  To now be having allergies in Januaries is something I hadn't thought possible.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Cfa said:

A few hours ago I was near Bald Hill (~300 ft ASL) when it flipped from rain to light snow and then rain again on the other side. Never experienced that before.

That's some hill lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I do think we’ll see Niña shenanigans for most of Feb. I also think and hope between now and Feb 10th is probably our window to luck into something until maybe March again.  Dispiriting, but hoping we can find some way to make it happen the next couple weeks. 

My bday is in early Feb, so it’d be nice to get something for the damn near blood sacrifice the area has made this winter so far. Honestly I’m good with a couple inches, would just like my house to look like winter once and then we’ll go from there. 

Think about it this way, at first it was being said all of February would be mild and snowless, now you're cutting into the first 10 days of the month.

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of today's storm, tomorrow will be partly sunny and still mild. The respite from precipitation won't last long.

New York City's long measurable snow drought will very likely end on Wednesday as a storm brings accumulating snow changing to rain to New York City. A general 1" or less snowfall appears likely in and around New York City with 1"-3" likely in the far northern and western suburbs.

A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +13.20 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.834 today.

On January 21 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.608 (RMM). The January 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.173 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.6° (7.9° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Most attention goes to the E Pacific for the ENSO SST changes but it's also about the contrast with the W Pacific. The cold Nina E Pacific isn't all that cold, but the scorching W Pacific enhances the Nina pattern. It'll be interesting to see if the next Nino can cause that to shift.

Yeah that's what I was saying, is this a general oceanic circulation thing that affects all oceans now.....are the western parts of all oceans becoming much warmer than the eastern parts? I can see WHY that might be happening.  With more heatwaves and a general west to east movement of circulation it stands to reason that western basins would become warmer than eastern basins all over the northern hemisphere at least.  Perhaps the same is happening in the Atlantic.

 

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

Finished the day with 3”, that brings my total for this season to 8”.


.

8” more than Long Island 

[mannynyc]

25 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Don't look now but GFS is back to glacier building mode to open February.  I'll say one thing about this winter so far.  I've not lost a wink of sleep over any incoming storm.  

Totally drunk

[sussexcountyobs]

Pickud up 3 inches today. Plus a 1/4 inch last nite. But I won't count that. Puts season total at 12.5" so far.

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is drunk

It's winter

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Totally drunk

Yea not that cold but it should be cold .

[jm1220]

52 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Totally drunk

Ohhhhh kay. 

[Brian5671]

The happy hour GFS had one too many

[lee59]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Don't look now but GFS is back to glacier building mode to open February.  I'll say one thing about this winter so far.  I've not lost a wink of sleep over any incoming storm.  

Yea Euro and CMC seem to be on board for at least a turn to cold, we shall see.

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's winter

There is no cold on our side of the globe

 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yea Euro and CMC seem to be on board for at least a turn to cold, we shall see.

I mean temperatures in the upper 30s seem reasonable, I would be suspicious of anything colder than that.

 

[jm1220]

Doesn't matter much yet but 0z HRRR says the snowless streak torches on for NYC through Wed. It has any accumulating front end snow N of the city and immediately to rain elsewhere. 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Doesn't matter much yet but 0z HRRR says the snowless streak torches on for NYC through Wed. It has any accumulating front end snow N of the city and immediately to rain elsewhere. 

I mean that makes sense.  I don't know of any situation where we've had an accumulating snow with a storm on that track with no arctic air pressing down.

 

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean that makes sense.  I don't know of any situation where we've had an accumulating snow with a storm on that track with no arctic air pressing down.

 

I'm sure it's happened but to be honest I can't remember any. Usually these storms only work out for front end snow when temps start in the 20s, otherwise it's an hour or two of non accumulating junk and then rain.  

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I'm sure it's happened but to be honest I can't remember any. Usually these storms only work out for front end snow when temps start in the 20s, otherwise it's an hour or two of non accumulating junk and then rain.  

Yeah that's usually a slowly retreating arctic airmass.  It looks like temperatures will barely touch freezing even for an overnight low.

 

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean that makes sense.  I don't know of any situation where we've had an accumulating snow with a storm on that track with no arctic air pressing down.

 

If the overrunning would come in early enough we could overcome the marginal airmass for a while, but models are shifting to any of that happening north of us. So we wait until the main precip area hits, by which time the ESE wind warms up the boundary layer too much in the city. Makes sense is right and it's what happens in 90% of these. We get the lucky 10% every once in a while like 2/22/08, 12/14/03 etc but these screw jobs are the norm. Boston to Albany might get another few inches or more and continue leaping out ahead of us since it's looking like they'll be the area the overrunning hits. 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If the overrunning would come in early enough we could overcome the marginal airmass for a while, but models are shifting to any of that happening north of us. So we wait until the main precip area hits, by which time the ESE wind warms up the boundary layer too much in the city. Makes sense is right and it's what happens in 90% of these. We get the lucky 10% every once in a while like 2/22/08, 12/14/03 etc but these screw jobs are the norm. Boston to Albany might get another few inches or more and continue leaping out ahead of us since it's looking like they'll be the area the overrunning hits. 

Yes this, additionally the overrunning comes in late morning and would hold down temps for a while if we were snowing. If we miss it the temp will probably be close to 40 by the time precip arrives after all full day of warming.  

[SnoSki14]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

There is no cold on our side of the globe

 

That's not true at all. All the cold will shift to our side