jm1220 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Still mostly rain with occasional flakes mixed in. Wed looks terrible now too, pretty numb to it at this point. Usual north bump with these overrunning type events. Probably another winner for I-90. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Usual north bump with these overrunning type events. Probably another winner for I-90. This has I-84 north event written all over it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I'm guilty of it as well but the nam really shouldn't be used or even discussed outside of 48 hours and even then it's not reliable ...and yes I know it nailed 2016 Yeah I don't give the NAM any weight anymore. Trusting the RGEM is the way to go. It's amazing how superior RGEM is to NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, winterwx21 said: Yeah I don't give the NAM any weight anymore. Trusting the RGEM is the way to go. It's amazing how superior RGEM is to NAM. RGEM seems superior to every model lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Nam way north. Haha this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 It’s not and I wish people would stop quoting this. What are you, insane?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 33 and still some last gasp moderate snow. Just about 1.5 mainly on colder surfaces. 6.5 for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Nam way north. Haha this winter Yep, it looks like brief, non accumulating snow/sleet then right over to rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 22 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nam way north. Haha this winter NAMS were way too cold/snowy today as well 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Interesting observations from today: I work on the outskirts of Newton - Elevation 570 feet and zilch on the snow. I started driving back to Sparta and saw evidence of accumulation around the Lafayette border, with a coating on the shady grassy surfaces. As I headed towards Sparta, I noticed things got more interesting quickly. At our house, elevation 800 feet, about 1.25". Up Glen Road, toward the top of Sparta Mountain looks to be at least 3, maybe 4" in spots. Plows are out in full force and there are even some tree branches down up there. I had noticed on radar earlier today that a nice band seemed to have set up roughly in a line from West Milford, down through Sparta. That, plus the modest elevation difference explains the world of difference in the snow amounts over just a few miles. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 % already back under 100 for that 1" of snow in the next 16 days. Dead Already. Gee, We Hardly Got to Know You. In addition, ACCUWEATHER has cancelled the rest of the winter for the Coastal Northeast. This is the second Death Notice issued. Problem is the tightening up of the SPV and that another warming event will come too late for a coastal region, snow wise. Spring could be partially BN, at least early on, that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: I know a lot of people are excited to hear El nino is likely, and it is. However, the last one we had (18-19) didn't have much in the way of sst gradients. I've done some reading which explains this is a factor that is significant. We'd like to see some cooler water around the Pacific warm pool area with it. Or at least have the el nino stronger than the warm pool. Could behave more enso neutral like otherwise. It's interesting and makes sense if you think about it. It's really the gradients that make things happen with our weather too. This is why indices aren't as useful as one might think. We need a certain type of el nino just like we need a certain type of negative NAO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 52 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah I don't give the NAM any weight anymore. Trusting the RGEM is the way to go. It's amazing how superior RGEM is to NAM. and likewise the new CMC to the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: The issue I am taking is not that it's getting warmer, it's that I feel as though EVERY reason we don't snow or it's warm is ultimately attributed to warming. Two things can co exist. We CAN be warmer and we CAN be in a low snowfall period that has happened in the past. Why can't both be true? Yes but that makes those low snowfall periods more likely, which is what we're looking at now. Also, indices aren't as useful as one might think. We need a certain type of el nino just like we need a certain type of negative NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: you have to take what the guidance is giving you. the pattern progression shown by all major ensembles is good, and downplaying it because of what happened weeks ago isn’t a good way to forecast. by that logic, those that forecasted the Blizzard of 2016 would’ve been called crazy since that winter was so warm beforehand persistence always looks genius until it falls flat on its face That was so awesome because it was a very strong el nino and basically an enhanced version of 1982-83. Now we can talk about what caused the enhancement (some of that was definitely climate change.... Chris posted some research showing that the warmer waters added a kick to that storm causing more snow to fall than would have otherwise fallen.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 35 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: 33 and still some last gasp moderate snow. Just about 1.5 mainly on colder surfaces. 6.5 for the season. Big fat T here. Looking forward to the next awesome T on Wed into yet another washout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: I just wish one of these marine heatwaves (which it’s hard to argue CC isn’t causing) can happen in a good place for us to get snow lol. It’s been routinely cooler than average the past 3-4 winters off the West Coast which promotes troughs there. If we had a marine heatwave there it would help pump the PNA ridge. The marine heatwaves off the East Coast pump the SE ridge and the one near the N Australia coast promotes the poor MJO phases and enhance the Nina signal. CC isn’t directly creating our lousy winter, it’s a plus on top of what we’re seeing. We’re just at a latitude where we can’t routinely expect banner winters, and statistically we’re due to regress to our long term average from the 40-60”+ bonanzas we had in the last 25 years. Can’t go on forever. Aren't the cooler waters off the west coast the direct result of the warmer waters in the West Pac though. It's a push-pull thing I guess. I wonder what's going on in the East Atlantic? Maybe the eastern basins of the major oceans are cooling off while the western basins are heating up? How come the troughs from the previous years on the west coast didn't cause as much rain as this one? It's basically saved California from forest fires and exceptional to extreme drought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: I know a lot of people are excited to hear El nino is likely, and it is. However, the last one we had (18-19) didn't have much in the way of sst gradients. I've done some reading which explains this is a factor that is significant. We'd like to see some cooler water around the Pacific warm pool area with it. Or at least have the el nino stronger than the warm pool. Could behave more enso neutral like otherwise. It's interesting and makes sense if you think about it. It's really the gradients that make things happen with our weather too. This! As I recall, it was also a factor in keeping the MJO in the crap phases. So yes, it's a reasonable possibility that a Nino next year won't necessarily change our luck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just drove from Manhattan back home to Dutchess. No real accumulation until Putnam and then instant winter wonderland. Heading out to snowblow the driveway. . 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: Aren't the cooler waters off the west coast the direct result of the warmer waters in the West Pac though. It's a push-pull thing I guess. I wonder what's going on in the East Atlantic? Maybe the eastern basins of the major oceans are cooling off while the western basins are heating up? How come the troughs from the previous years on the west coast didn't cause as much rain as this one? It's basically saved California from forest fires and exceptional to extreme drought! There's more of a subtropical jet from the Pacific this year probably from the warm waters near Japan which help fuel the parade of storms across the Pacific. Bluewave can probably explain better. Unfortunately the rain only helps to a point. So much so fast runs off quickly and doesn't soak into the ground, and fuels growth that can help spread new fires in the summer as it dries out. So they really do need repeated years of this to end the drought. The smaller reservoirs there are filled but the larger ones are still well below average from what I read. Their snowpack is well above average though which will help fill the reservoirs into the spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, JTA66 said: This! As I recall, it was also a factor in keeping the MJO in the crap phases. So yes, it's a reasonable possibility that a Nino next year won't necessarily change our luck. Most attention goes to the E Pacific for the ENSO SST changes but it's also about the contrast with the W Pacific. The cold Nina E Pacific isn't all that cold, but the scorching W Pacific enhances the Nina pattern. It'll be interesting to see if the next Nino can cause that to shift. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 18Z RGEM now shows a tiny bit of snow for Wed in NYC, the 0.2 inches it is showing would save the record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Picked up 0.35" of rain for the day. Storm total 1.01" Current temp 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 18Z RGEM now shows a tiny bit of snow for Wed in NYC, the 0.2 inches it is showing would save the record. good luck with that with marginal temps wet/warm ground-same issues as today for most areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Models did a good job with what happen in sne today. Just were a bit too far southeast with the snow a few days ago into nyc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Nice to see some areas getting some snow today. I think a little more than what was expected a few days ago. Hopefully the next storm will do the same. I just hope Central Park can get an accumulation, then that'll be by the wayside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 good luck with that with marginal temps wet/warm ground-same issues as today for most areas...And the inevitable back off from the GFS and ICON at 18z, seems to be another win for the RGEM/CMC suite incoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yes but that makes those low snowfall periods more likely, which is what we're looking at now. Also, indices aren't as useful as one might think. We need a certain type of el nino just like we need a certain type of negative NAO. But how do you know this is the case already? If this has happened numerous times in the past, for longer periods, how do we know? I mean if we go 4 more years and only one is above average? However no way to tell yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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