January 2023

[Wxoutlooksblog]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro is cutter after cutter….

At 216 hours not necessarily. As shown now, yes. But let's see what future runs show.

WX/PT

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep. CMC also has a big cutter in early February, and even GFS now shows some warm air in the long range in early February. I don't think it's ever going to change this winter ... probably heading towards our worst ever. 

 

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Oh but look it turns much colder at 240 hours!  Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

Nothing will change until something changes and so far this season there have been no significant changes to the overall pattern.

The snow mean looks good between the 3rd and 7th but we thought that about this weekend as well. Lol. 
 

I doubt we see more than an inch this year. Just brutal 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, MANDA said:

Oh but look it turns much colder at 240 hours!  Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

Nothing will change until something changes and so far this season there have been no significant changes to the overall pattern.

The most frustrating part is that the pattern HAS changed for a third time now, 

One was good and we were unlucky and blew it.

One was a flood of PAC puk and no chance at all

Now we are heading into a cold cutter cold patter.

97/98 was at least PAC puke 99%of the time.

[snowman19]

Oh but look it turns much colder at 240 hours!  Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
Nothing will change until something changes and so far this season there have been no significant changes to the overall pattern.

It’s always cold, snowy and a great pattern at 240+ hours. Been a reoccurring theme since the middle of November

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep. CMC also has a big cutter in early February, and even GFS now shows some warm air in the long range in early February. I don't think it's ever going to change this winter ... probably heading towards our worst ever. 

Good. Put us out of our misery then. I’d rather enjoy 60s where it’s nice to be outside. It’s still possible we have a surprise on Wed but not if the overrunning shoots north of most of us and/or the precip waits forever to start. Could easily just be a washout or very brief snow to rain. 

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

ground is like Nov warm too-can't remember the last time it was below 30 degrees here even at night.

I wonder what those SST are at now?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The most frustrating part is that the pattern HAS changed for a third time now, 

One was good and we were unlucky and blew it.

One was a flood of PAC puk and no chance at all

Now we are heading into a cold cutter cold patter.

97/98 was at least PAC puke 99%of the time.

Pattern can change as much as it wants, there just isn't as much cold air around as there used to be.

That's brutal honesty.

Even a place like Buffalo that has seen so much snow has had warmer temperatures than they normally have.

 

[Stormlover74]

Who wants to create the February thread? 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The most frustrating part is that the pattern HAS changed for a third time now, 

One was good and we were unlucky and blew it.

One was a flood of PAC puk and no chance at all

Now we are heading into a cold cutter cold patter.

97/98 was at least PAC puke 99%of the time.

not with this luck thing again--- the pattern was never all that great to begin with

 

[JustinRP37]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s always cold, snowy and a great pattern at 240+ hours. Been a reoccurring theme since the middle of November

I do wonder how much base climatology goes into models at 240+ hours out. Like how much of it is driven by actual atmospheric modeling versus trying to bring about climate norms. Because this is not unique to just this year. Bottom line this winter is historically bad thus far and even if that changes, it doesn't fix the fact that 2/3rds of met winter have been garbage. 

[brooklynwx99]

the favorable period really begins in February when the TPV gets displaced and allows waves to track underneath it. big overrunning signal here

9/30 members give NYC over a foot of snow in the next 16 days. not sure why futility is even being mentioned 

[NorthShoreWx]

12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Light snow and 35. Ugly

True.

[MJO812]

Feels like snow but it's raining =(

[wishcast_hater]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Who wants to create the February thread? 

Maybe its best to skip to March at this point.

[MANDA]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The most frustrating part is that the pattern HAS changed for a third time now, 

One was good and we were unlucky and blew it.

One was a flood of PAC puk and no chance at all

Now we are heading into a cold cutter cold patter.

97/98 was at least PAC puke 99%of the time.

Variations on the same theme since November.  Nothing has greatly changed because if it had we would have had a period of sustained cold and more snow than we have gotten.   Pattern was not "good" or it would have produced and it didn't.  A four day cold shot is not anything noteworthy.  Sorry, just the way I see it.

[North and West]

Oh but look it turns much colder at 240 hours!  Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
Nothing will change until something changes and so far this season there have been no significant changes to the overall pattern.

I’m saying we recess and reconvene thanksgiving weekend 2023.


.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Variations on the same theme since November.  Nothing has greatly changed because if it had we would have had a period of sustained cold and more snow than we have gotten.   Pattern was not "good" or it would have produced and it didn't.  A four day cold shot is not anything noteworthy.  Sorry, just the way I see it.

the definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over and expecting a different result lol

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

the definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over and expecting a different result lol

It’s not and I wish people would stop quoting this. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Variations on the same theme since November.  Nothing has greatly changed because if it had we would have had a period of sustained cold and more snow than we have gotten.   Pattern was not "good" or it would have produced and it didn't.  A four day cold shot is not anything noteworthy.  Sorry, just the way I see it.

Yes I'm a results oriented person too.

The atmosphere can't be reduced to a few indices.  

I see the whole planet and basically the same thing going on everywhere.

If you want the answers as to why this is happening that's all you really need to know.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Nibor said:

It’s not and I wish people would stop quoting this. 

Isn't that from Einstein?

 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

not with this luck thing again--- the pattern was never all that great to begin with

 

Yes and no. The block in Dec was a little too south based and it linked with the SE Ridge which turned it into a disaster. But with a few minor changes we could've had a biggie (and we did in a way, it was just a warm cutter but it was quite disruptive for many of us). But then the Pac Jet went crazy, which will be lousy for the East Coast no matter what since it removes all the cold air from the continent. If we can get the PV to reestablish in central Canada, the SE Ridge to subdue somewhat and the Pacific not to rampage everything, we can have a shot. If these don't happen it will continue to be a Seattle/Portland type pattern (both of these cities have more snow this winter than NYC, Seattle has 8-9" I believe so even more than Boston). 

[snowman19]

I do wonder how much base climatology goes into models at 240+ hours out. Like how much of it is driven by actual atmospheric modeling versus trying to bring about climate norms. Because this is not unique to just this year. Bottom line this winter is historically bad thus far and even if that changes, it doesn't fix the fact that 2/3rds of met winter have been garbage. 

All I know is, we have been hearing about great patterns that are going to produce a lot of snow and cold here for 3 months now. The hype started in mid-November, some even hyping “historic” patterns, here we sit less than 8 days away from the beginning of February with absolutely nothing whatsoever to show for it. At some point this winter has to put up or shut up. We have been kicking the can down the road and moving the goal posts forward in time for too long now. To expect some miracle pattern to just suddenly develop in February is unrealistic IMO. The clock is ticking, in 8 days, just 1 month left of met winter

[Allsnow]

Boston will probably get nyc avg this winter with the city getting 0.0 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Yes and no. The block in Dec was a little too south based and it linked with the SE Ridge which turned it into a disaster. But with a few minor changes we could've had a biggie (and we did in a way, it was just a warm cutter but it was quite disruptive for many of us). But then the Pac Jet went crazy, which will be lousy for the East Coast no matter what since it removes all the cold air from the continent. If we can get the PV to reestablish in central Canada, the SE Ridge to subdue somewhat and the Pacific not to rampage everything, we can have a shot. If these don't happen it will continue to be a Seattle/Portland type pattern (both of these cities have more snow this winter than NYC, Seattle has 8-9" I believe so even more than Boston). 

Seems like alot to fix.  And we're getting into the back 1/3 of winter so things need to happen fast...

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Variations on the same theme since November.  Nothing has greatly changed because if it had we would have had a period of sustained cold and more snow than we have gotten.   Pattern was not "good" or it would have produced and it didn't.  A four day cold shot is not anything noteworthy.  Sorry, just the way I see it.

That is not correct. You can have a good period not produce snow like you can have a bad period like Feb 2018 produce snow.

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't that from Einstein?

 

No, that’s a myth and the quote is essentially Live Laugh Love with a psychology twist to it.

[EastonSN+]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

not with this luck thing again--- the pattern was never all that great to begin with

 

It WAS good enough to produce. It didn't. It happens. Not all good setups produce. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yes and no. The block in Dec was a little too south based and it linked with the SE Ridge which turned it into a disaster. But with a few minor changes we could've had a biggie (and we did in a way, it was just a warm cutter but it was quite disruptive for many of us). But then the Pac Jet went crazy, which will be lousy for the East Coast no matter what since it removes all the cold air from the continent. If we can get the PV to reestablish in central Canada, the SE Ridge to subdue somewhat and the Pacific not to rampage everything, we can have a shot. If these don't happen it will continue to be a Seattle/Portland type pattern (both of these cities have more snow this winter than NYC, Seattle has 8-9" I believe so even more than Boston). 

That's the part I'm interested in-- what caused the Pac jet to go so crazy and develop into an el nino pattern?

So basically our worst possible pattern would be an early el nino pattern and a later la nina pattern.  La Ninas are supposed to be great early and El Ninos are great late and we have the opposite of that.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

No, that’s a myth and the quote is essentially Live Laugh Love with a psychology twist to it.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/einstein-s-parable-of-quantum-insanity/

Someone has to tell them then-- because even science magazines keep repeating it lol.  This whole article is worth reading actually, it explains why what people call "luck" doesn't actually exist, and you can apply this to weather or anything else really-- there is inherent unpredictability in complex emergent systems.  The bold part is why there is no such thing as luck-- we simply have a very imperfect understanding of nature and reductionism simplifies our theories, not nature itself.

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”

That witticism—I’ll call it “Einstein Insanity”—is usually attributed to Albert Einstein. Though the Matthew effect may be operating here, it is undeniably the sort of clever, memorable one-liner that Einstein often tossed off. And I’m happy to give him the credit, because doing so takes us in interesting directions.

First of all, note that what Einstein describes as insanity is, according to quantum theory, the way the world actually works. In quantum mechanics you can do the same thing many times and get different results. Indeed, that is the premise underlying great high-energy particle colliders. In those colliders, physicists bash together the same particles in precisely the same way, trillions upon trillions of times. Are they all insane to do so? It would seem they are not, since they have garnered a stupendous variety of results.

Of course Einstein, famously, did not believe in the inherent unpredictability of the world, saying “God does not play dice.” Yet in playing dice, we act out Einstein Insanity: We do the same thing over and over—namely, roll the dice—and we correctly anticipate different results. Is it really insane to play dice? If so, it’s a very common form of madness!

We can evade the diagnosis by arguing that in practice one never throws the dice in precisely the same way. Very small changes in the initial conditions can alter the results. The underlying idea here is that in situations where we can’t predict precisely what’s going to happen next, it’s because there are aspects of the current situation that we haven’t taken into account. Similar pleas of ignorance can defend many other applications of probability from the accusation of Einstein Insanity to which they are all exposed. If we did have full access to reality, according to this argument, the results of our actions would never be in doubt.

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes I'm a results oriented person too.

The atmosphere can't be reduced to a few indices.  

I see the whole planet and basically the same thing going on everywhere.

If you want the answers as to why this is happening that's all you really need to know.

 

2018 we had a historic SE ridge and had a good snow event between 70 degrees days. Let's get that back instead of a neg NAO.