January 2023

[psv88]

White rain now, gloppy snowflakes mixing in

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Agree the cmc is out to lunch imo, the nam probably is too. 

And if a compromise between those models happens (kind of what like GFS is showing), we'll probably get no accumulation. The snow would have to come in like a wall and be heavy to get accumulations in this situation. Light to moderate snow falling with temps above freezing and a warm ground won't cut it.  If that happens, NYC's record will probably be broken. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I vaguely remember the early Feb 1995 storm, and that it snowed quite a bit but ended as heavy rain in Long Beach. 

Was that like the storm we had in Feb 2014?

 

[Allsnow]

White rain 35 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not really sure. it's probably just bad luck... if the shortwave that led to the cutter came in a day later, it would have been a huge coastal storm, but the ridge was too far W

and then the follow up wave was a day too late and the ridge broke down out west. just really bad timing, could have been a very good stretch. luck is always in our winters here

I don't know man, when the same thing keeps happening over and over that's not luck lol

It's also happened like that before-- there are cycles that repeat themselves.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if you're talking about late December, that pattern deserved to be hyped up. it was pretty awful luck that the period didn't produce, what can you do though

sometimes even the 9/10 patterns fail. December 2010 could have easily gone the same way, but we got lucky with BDB

that was a la nina after an el nino that's entirely different from a third year la nina.

and that blocking was MUCH stronger and MUCH better located than this was.

 

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it couldn't be because we've had the most productive snow period over the last 15 years ever, no?

Islip has averaged more than State College lmao regression to the mean sucks

that's not a thing when the climate is changing..lake effect areas aren't getting what they used to either and Europe is also in a massive snow drought.

You have to look beyond your backyard.
 

 

[FPizz]

At my work, 400' or so up in nw somerset county, all it ever did was mix with snow here briefly.  Otherwise its been all rain.  

My wife who is home said we had some non-sticking snow there.  Did you see anything @Poker2015?  Oh well. The misery continues....

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't know man, when the same thing keeps happening over and over that's not luck lol

It's also happened like that before-- there are cycles that repeat themselves.

 

timing a shortwave at more than 5 days out is pretty much impossible, and the factors that lead to snow on the coastal plain generally come down to luck, this isn't New England, we need things to break right

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that was a la nina after an el nino that's entirely different from a third year la nina.

and that blocking was MUCH stronger and MUCH better located than this was.

 

the blocking this year was actually more anomalous. I'm just saying it's a matter of bad luck because you can't determine exactly where it's going to set up and how it'll impact the pattern more than like 5 days out. it's just not possible

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

timing a shortwave at more than 5 days out is pretty much impossible, and the factors that lead to snow on the coastal plain generally come down to luck, this isn't New England, we need things to break right

the blocking this year was actually more anomalous. I'm just saying it's a matter of bad luck because you can't determine exactly where it's going to set up and how it'll impact the pattern more than like 5 days out. it's just not possible

The "mean" from the 80s was entirely different from what it is today (I know because I lived through it)....the winters were orders of magnitude colder back then (by a lot), even though it didn't snow much that decade either, the winters were at least 5 degrees colder.

This has been a crap pattern for snow not just for us but for large regions of the globe that expect snow, from the Great Lakes (outside of Buffalo) to most of Europe, with people suffering neck and back injuries and going to the ER because they were trying to "ski" on small scraps of snow in the Alps....it's been snowless in Germany, Austria and Switzerland too.

Looking at the whole globe you can see this is what to expect going forward with the changing climate.

Chris showed some graphs indicating the kind of blocking we had in 2010 and 2011 was something like a 1 in 500 year event?

 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The "mean" from the 80s was entirely different from what it is today (I know because I lived through it)....the winters were orders of magnitude colder back then (by a lot), even though it didn't snow much that decade either, the winters were at least 5 degrees colder.

This has been a crap pattern for snow not just for us but for large regions of the globe that expect snow, from the Great Lakes (outside of Buffalo) to most of Europe, with people suffering neck and back injuries and going to the ER because they were trying to "ski" on small scraps of snow in the Alps....it's been snowless in Germany, Austria and Switzerland too.

Looking at the whole globe you can see this is what to expect going forward with the changing climate.

Chris showed some graphs indicating the kind of blocking we had in 2010 and 2011 was something like a 1 in 500 year event?

 

I personally always felt that the 90s were a much better comp. Temp and snow season wise.

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The "mean" from the 80s was entirely different from what it is today (I know because I lived through it)....the winters were orders of magnitude colder back then (by a lot), even though it didn't snow much that decade either, the winters were at least 5 degrees colder.

This has been a crap pattern for snow not just for us but for large regions of the globe that expect snow, from the Great Lakes (outside of Buffalo) to most of Europe, with people suffering neck and back injuries and going to the ER because they were trying to "ski" on small scraps of snow in the Alps....it's been snowless in Germany, Austria and Switzerland too.

Looking at the whole globe you can see this is what to expect going forward with the changing climate.

Chris showed some graphs indicating the kind of blocking we had in 2010 and 2011 was something like a 1 in 500 year event?

 

This month has been much more similar to the late 90s particularly 97-98 even though that was a super nino

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I personally always felt that the 90s were a much better comp. Temp and snow season wise.

that was my favorite decade....the 4 extremely hot and dry summers and the 2 snowy winters lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

This month has been much more similar to the late 90s particularly 97-98 even though that was a super nino

Yeah isn't that strange?  I wonder why that happened?  All that rain into California...I wonder if this is an early sign that next winter will be a moderate or strong el nino?

 

[Brian5671]

Lame here-a couple burst of snow but drizzle in b/w.   Nothing sticking of course with warm temps and ground.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Lame here-a couple burst of snow but drizzle in b/w.   Nothing sticking of course with warm temps and ground.

this is like late March weather lol

[Rtd208]

Snow starting to mix in with the rain here now. 

Current temp 37

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this is like late March weather lol

Yep.   Wet and relatively mild.  No ice anywhere and ground is warm--could mistake today for 3/23 for sure.  Can't even remember the last time we had a legit cold front come through...

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah isn't that strange?  I wonder why that happened?  All that rain into California...I wonder if this is an early sign that next winter will be a moderate or strong el nino?

 

Moderate has a chance.  I don’t think it’ll be strong.  Generally the ENSO models would show a bit more consensus over 1.0 by now although they sort of bombed on the 2015-16 El Niño showing it being weak to moderate at this stage.  That said there were other strong indicators that they were probably underdone and many were sounding the alarm of a strong El Niño 

[Winterweatherlover]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this is like late March weather lol

I was feeling a little hopeful about today when it started mixing with snow by 10 am but now I'm seeing it's complete junk, on and off light rain/snow mix. Precip rates are putrid. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I was feeling a little hopeful about today when it started mixing with snow by 10 am but now I'm seeing it's complete junk, on and off light rain/snow mix. Precip rates are putrid. 

Mid day heating is close to the low point of the year and this airmass behind the low is just not cutting it. We would need a heavy burst to get anything to stick. In SNE where it’s 2-3 degrees colder that can happen. This will probably be another system where Boston jumps ahead by a few more inches. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I was feeling a little hopeful about today when it started mixing with snow by 10 am but now I'm seeing it's complete junk, on and off light rain/snow mix. Precip rates are putrid. 

yep same here...models overdone yet again

[Cfa]

Sleet now mixing in with the rain by ISP.

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this is like late March weather lol

Its been March since the Christmas cold

[Stormlover74]

Euro warmer and less snow wednesday

[psv88]

All snow now, doubt it will stick, its 36 degrees

[Allsnow]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Euro warmer and less snow wednesday

It’s not warmer! Less snow because the best forcing goes north of us. 

[FPizz]

[snowman19]

36 in Sloatsburg, white rain

[Volcanic Winter]

White rain due west of NYC. Somewhat looks like it’s trying to turn to sleet but too warm here (38ish). Fun.