EastonSN+ Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, MANDA said: To me it does. It would somehow make the lack of snowfall worthwhile. Pyrrhic victory if you will. I guess, just to me if CPK gets 0.1 and misses the record or 0.0 and gets it, it's still just a crap stretch. I think the much much larger record is a full season under 1 inch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Does it really matter if the record gets broken or not at this point? Yep who cares at this point it's a ratter of a winter barring some sort of miraculous turnaround in Feb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Wet snow in Lower Manhattan, huge pancake looking flakes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 0.91" rainfall as of 11:15am 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Back edge coming through. About .10”. Pavement wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 The colder models were right about snow to the coast today. It’s much easier to get snow in the air though than onto the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 The Ukie looks like the RGEM/CMC now and the GFS cut back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Precip is redeveloping to our west,the front coming from the west and the coastal is getting some lift around these parts this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: The Ukie looks like the RGEM/CMC now and the GFS cut back Yeah, but 0.1 is all that is needed....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah, but 0.1 is all that is needed....... The record may get saved today, forget Wednesday for now lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Ukie looks like the RGEM/CMC now and the GFS cut back Yep you have to go to extreme northwest NJ to get snow on the UKMET now. I'm sure NAM and Euro will come to reality soon. We're not getting a few inches of snow with the low tracking that far west and not much cold air in place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The record may get saved today, forget Wednesday for now lol. given the winter pattern not sure they get anything wed either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 well, this place is chipper as always 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: well, this place is chipper as always What I find funny are the different moods in different forums. NE and MA forums are mostly optimistic while this one is on the pessimistic side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: What I find funny are the different moods in different forums. NE and MA forums are mostly optimistic while this one is on the pessimistic side. with most places sitting at 0.0 of snow on the season on 1/23 I can see why.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: What I find funny are the different moods in different forums. NE and MA forums are mostly optimistic while this one is on the pessimistic side. it couldn't be because we've had the most productive snow period over the last 15 years ever, no? Islip has averaged more than State College lmao regression to the mean sucks 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: What I find funny are the different moods in different forums. NE and MA forums are mostly optimistic while this one is on the pessimistic side. At least the NE forum gets some snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: What I find funny are the different moods in different forums. NE and MA forums are mostly optimistic while this one is on the pessimistic side. Assuming most are snow weenies, why is MA optimistic?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: it couldn't be because we've had the most productive snow period over the last 15 years ever, no? Islip has averaged more than State College lmao We are all spoiled for sure. However coming up on 5 years since our last great pattern (March 2018) Last Jan was close with 3 good weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Starting to see some flakes mixing in with the rain now. Who cares about non accumulating wet snow though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: well, this place is chipper as always Being realistic does not mean we are being negative. Many, including you, have hyped up many periods that have not worked out, so getting excited for front end slop does not raise the spirits of most. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Radar shows snow here, but its rain. Temp has dropped 2 degrees at least...to 37 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Assuming most are snow weenies, why is MA optimistic?! My hypothesis is that they do not expect much, so the current situation is not as jarring to them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: FWIW CMC was a bit colder. The CMC idea of no overruning band is definitely wrong. The NAM/Euro might ultimately be too far south with it and it may end up over SWF/POU as often happens with these events but the idea of basically nothing til everyone flips to a southerly wind is highly likely to not verify. I don’t think we know for 36 more hours if there’s a chance of decent snows down to I78 or south 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, psv88 said: Being realistic does not mean we are being negative. Many, including you, have hyped up many periods that have not worked out, so getting excited for front end slop does not raise the spirits of most. if you're talking about late December, that pattern deserved to be hyped up. it was pretty awful luck that the period didn't produce, what can you do though sometimes even the 9/10 patterns fail. December 2010 could have easily gone the same way, but we got lucky with BDB 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, psv88 said: Radar shows snow here, but its rain. Temp has dropped 2 degrees at least...to 37 I just had a little band pass and it was all snow. Waiting on the better band to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: if you're talking about late December, that pattern deserved to be hyped up. it was pretty awful luck that the period didn't produce, what can you do though sometimes even the 9/10 patterns fail. December 2010 could have easily gone the same way, but we got lucky with BDB I think there were some issues with December's blocking being too far SW and it linked up with the SE ridge-seems like we've seen that theme a couple years with blocking too far south....maybe b/c of the warm atlantic waters? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The CMC idea of no overruning band is definitely wrong. The NAM/Euro might ultimately be too far south with it and it may end up over SWF/POU as often happens with these events but the idea of basically nothing til everyone flips to a southerly wind is highly likely to not verify. I don’t think we know for 36 more hours if there’s a chance of decent snows down to I78 or south Agree the cmc is out to lunch imo, the nam probably is too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Brian5671 said: I think there were some issues with December's blocking being too far SW and it linked up with the SE ridge-seems like we've seen that theme a couple years with blocking too far south....maybe b/c of the warm atlantic waters? not really sure. it's probably just bad luck... if the shortwave that led to the cutter came in a day later, it would have been a huge coastal storm, but the ridge was too far W and then the follow up wave was a day too late and the ridge broke down out west. just really bad timing, could have been a very good stretch. luck is always in our winters here 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Yep you have to go to extreme northwest NJ to get snow on the UKMET now. I'm sure NAM and Euro will come to reality soon. We're not getting a few inches of snow with the low tracking that far west and not much cold air in place. ICON cut back too. I’d be surprised if the Euro doesn’t next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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