January 2023

[Volcanic Winter]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Bold canceling winter on January 1 . We shall see. 

Yeah, I'm just along for the ride. The other forums are a bit more upbeat (M/A and NE), not saying we'll all see snow that won't be highly location / track dependent but I'm at least staying optimistic.

This winter in my unscientific, anecdotal opinion does not have the tenor of a 2019-2020 shutout. With that said, if I personally get little or nothing here to March, so be it. 1/29 was fun.

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, I'm just along for the ride. The other forums are a bit more upbeat (M/A and NE), not saying we'll all see snow that won't be highly location / track dependent but I'm at least staying optimistic.

This winter in my unscientific, anecdotal opinion does not have the tenor of a 2019-2020 shutout. With that said, if I personally get little or nothing here to March, so be it. 1/29 was fun.

That winter had 2 minor events (though maybe not for South jersey)

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That winter had 2 minor events (though maybe not for South jersey)

We didn’t have a plowable event that winter in central nj. The only other winter in my lifetime not to have at least one storm of 2+ on the pavement was 97-98 

[Stormlover74]

Euro is dry and near normal

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, I'm just along for the ride. The other forums are a bit more upbeat (M/A and NE), not saying we'll all see snow that won't be highly location / track dependent but I'm at least staying optimistic.

This winter in my unscientific, anecdotal opinion does not have the tenor of a 2019-2020 shutout. With that said, if I personally get little or nothing here to March, so be it. 1/29 was fun.

Lol I have always noticed that.

MA and NE thread are mostly looking for positives while this board tends to be negative (speaking about snowfall)

Not sure why that's the case 

Last year, part of the MA (Delmarva area) had a historic snowfall season, maybe that part of the forum is carrying the optimism.

 

 

 

[bluewave]

Today is the 4 consecutive day over 50° in NYC. Models extend this to 8 days by Thursday. So a pretty long 50° streak for this time of year. The only thing currently in the way of 70° for Wednesday is clouds and some showers. The 850 mb temperatures of +10C to +12C would support 70° if we can sneak in a few breaks of sun.

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

45 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Lol I have always noticed that.

MA and NE thread are mostly looking for positives while this board tends to be negative (speaking about snowfall)

Not sure why that's the case 

Last year, part of the MA (Delmarva area) had a historic snowfall season, maybe that part of the forum is carrying the optimism.

 

 

 

Yeah the cutoff to that AC storm was brutal, I only caught a few inches in that while not far to my south cleaned up. Had a great Jan overall though and scored nicely wrt NJ in 1/29. 

As long as the absolute torch is abating, that’s a good enough step one for me. 30 days is a long period of weather, there’s bound to be a surprise or two this Jan (and of course, not all surprises are good). 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, I'm just along for the ride. The other forums are a bit more upbeat (M/A and NE), not saying we'll all see snow that won't be highly location / track dependent but I'm at least staying optimistic.

This winter in my unscientific, anecdotal opinion does not have the tenor of a 2019-2020 shutout. With that said, if I personally get little or nothing here to March, so be it. 1/29 was fun.

Yea others are saying winter will return soon. We shall see.

[CIK62]

Out on the street with a Tin Cup---I mean Snow Board.       Snow for the Bored?, Snow for the Bored?, Snow for the Bored?      Begging for an inch.     

EL STINKO.     All of the nothing is from the 7th.

[donsutherland1]

2023 began on a balmy note. Temperatures rose into the 50s across the region under abundant sunshine. Tomorrow will be a similar day with continued mild temperatures.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, it was as if New Year's Day marked the start of summer. Numerous monthly records, including national records, were demolished by the warmth. At Warsaw, the temperature rose to 66°. Delemont, Switzerland reached 68° while Kaposvar, Hungary hit 65°.

Select 75° or above highs in France included:

Aicirits: 76°
Asson: 76°
Cambo les Bains: 76°
Capbreton: 76°
Dax: 75°
Lanne en Baretous: 76°
Lasseube: 76°
Navarrenx: 76°
Oloron: 76°
Saint Gladie: 76°
Samadet: 76°
Soorts Hossegor: 76°
Trois Villes: 77°

The first week of January will see a continuation of the mild regime that is currently in place. Readings will average 5°-10° above normal. The warmth will likely peak during the middle of the week when the mercury approaches or reaches 60° or above as far north as southern New England.

The height of the warmth will likely coincide with an AO-/PNA+ pattern. During January 1950-2022, AO-/PNA+ patterns saw 1% of days reach 60° or above in New York City vs. 5.7% of days for all other patterns. The highest January temperature during an AO-/PNA+ pattern occurred on January 8, 1998 when the thermometer reached 65°.

The second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, but a cold outcome is not assured. Overall, a warmer than normal January appears to be likely.

2022 became the 14th year during which New York City received no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.

The measurable snow drought could end as early as Friday, but that's not assured. There is a small cluster of EPS members (14%) that show 1" or more snow at New York City for January 6th into January 7th. A measurable snowfall is 0.1". However, that percentage has fallen from 22% yesterday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +28.41 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.033 today.

On December 30 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.635 (RMM). The December 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.633 (RMM).

 

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Yea others are saying winter will return soon. We shall see.

Yea who knows. The same ole caveats no longer apply. 

Would I be shocked that after all this doom & gloom we still got 40"+ this season 

Nope. Winters are gettin weird 

[North and West]

2023 began on a balmy note. Temperatures rose into the 50s across the region under abundant sunshine. Tomorrow will be a similar day with continued mild temperatures.
Across the Atlantic Ocean, it was as if New Year's Day marked the start of summer. Numerous monthly records, including national records, were demolished by the warmth. At Warsaw, the temperature rose to 66°. Delemont, Switzerland reached 68° while Kaposvar, Hungary hit 65°.
Select 75° or above highs in France included:
Aicirits: 76°
Asson: 76°
Cambo les Bains: 76°
Capbreton: 76°
Dax: 75°
Lanne en Baretous: 76°
Lasseube: 76°
Navarrenx: 76°
Oloron: 76°
Saint Gladie: 76°
Samadet: 76°
Soorts Hossegor: 76°
Trois Villes: 77°
The first week of January will see a continuation of the mild regime that is currently in place. Readings will average 5°-10° above normal. The warmth will likely peak during the middle of the week when the mercury approaches or reaches 60° or above as far north as southern New England.
The height of the warmth will likely coincide with an AO-/PNA+ pattern. During January 1950-2022, AO-/PNA+ patterns saw 1% of days reach 60° or above in New York City vs. 5.7% of days for all other patterns. The highest January temperature during an AO-/PNA+ pattern occurred on January 8, 1998 when the thermometer reached 65°.
The second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, but a cold outcome is not assured. Overall, a warmer than normal January appears to be likely.
2022 became the 14th year during which New York City received no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.
The measurable snow drought could end as early as Friday, but that's not assured. There is a small cluster of EPS members (14%) that show 1" or more snow at New York City for January 6th into January 7th. A measurable snowfall is 0.1". However, that percentage has fallen from 22% yesterday.
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.
The SOI was +28.41 today.
The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.033 today.
On December 30 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.635 (RMM). The December 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.633 (RMM).
 

.

[WestBabylonWeather]

How many times have people written off winter for something to happen a couple of weeks later. I know better. Ill wait till march to complain. 

[Nibor]

2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

How many times have people written off winter for something to happen a couple of weeks later. I know better. Ill wait till march to complain. 

Why wait until March when you can be insufferable now like a lot of other people?

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

How many times have people written off winter for something to happen a couple of weeks later. I know better. Ill wait till march to complain. 

Same here

MJO looks great on all the models . The pattern forward looks more like an El Nino.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and mild.  High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 54°

Newark: 57°

Philadelphia: 59°

Temperatures will be above to much above average into at least the middle of next week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.4°; 15-Year: 41.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 42.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.2°; 15-Year: 43.3°

[Allsnow]

-pna +nao and +ao on all the ensembles now in the 11-15 day. January might be toast now for snowfall 

[wdrag]

Good Monday morning and a belated Happy New Year,  

Jan 6: not looking good south of the I84 corridor elevations.  GFS-GEFS trends have been a little north the past day for so and CMCE and EPS a little south. Just looks too warm I-80 corridor south.

As for I-84 elevations,  a little ice Thursday afternoon or night and then maybe some convective snow bursts with the vort max Friday morning dumping possibly a quick inch or two (less valleys). 

So far modeling is not cold enough soon enough, and while we have a healthy looking 5H negative tilt trough-strong vort max crossing I-84 Friday, it should be too far north and too brief for major impact. I could see elevations of I84 needing road treatments with some morning delays but it's all about nighttime timing and temps near freezing. This probably commits too much this far in advance but it's the merger of what I'm what I'm seeing in models. Confidence: a little below average. 

Checking NAM 2m temp trends will be of value. I am watching RGEM, and hopefully it eventually cools a little for the 18z Thursday Jan 5 prediction across MA.  

I'll probably check back late today or tomorrow. I am not looking beyond Jan 6-7 time frame. For me, one at a time.  This will be interesting to see if the GFS idea was right about snow possibilities Friday Jan 6, in it's modeling since just before Christmas. For now, it seems it was too far south.  If this turns out to be a nada snow ice event in our subforum, it will be a terrible two week GFS cyclic run. 

Still have 4 days for changes.

[bluewave]

The long range EPS and GEFS continue to underestimate the Pacific Jet and the -PNA trough near the West Coast day 11-15. So a continuation of the day 11-15 forecasts struggling with the fast Pacific flow. These week 2 forecasts have been getting pushed back since late November.

New runs for Jan 10

Old runs

 

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

-pna +nao and +ao on all the ensembles now in the 11-15 day. January might be toast now for snowfall 

Next timeframe which has been showing up is mid month for a coastal . This might have legs with the MJO going into 8-1.

AO still looks favorable.  The models should respond more favorable if the MJO is correct .

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     46degs.(42/50) or +13.

Reached 58 here yesterday.

Today:   53-55, wind w. going to e., increasing clouds, 50 tomorrow AM

Week 3 starting to look like a train wreck---not Salvation:

The best % for getting below 5400m.     This quickly withdraws itself:

48*(70%RH) here at 6am.     47* at 7am.     49* at 8am.      51* at 10am.      54* at 11am.      56* at Noon.    57* at  1pm.   but 54* at 1:30pm.       52* at 2pm.      51* at 3pm.        52* at 4pm.       54* at 6pm.

[Allsnow]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The long range EPS and GEFS continue to underestimate the Pacific Jet and the -PNA trough near the West Coast day 11-15. So a continuation of the day 11-15 forecasts struggling with the fast Pacific flow. These week 2 forecasts have been getting pushed back since late November.

New runs for Jan 10

Old runs

 

 

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Next timeframe which has been showing up is mid month for a coastal . This might have legs with the MJO going into 8-1.

AO still looks favorable.  The models should respond more favorable if the MJO is correct .

 

[the_other_guy]

What does the timing of the rain look like tomorrow?

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

 

I know what it showed. 

Should I give up on winter because of the eps day 11-15?

 

We need to be patient here 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

What does the timing of the rain look like tomorrow?

Mid to late afternoon but the heaviest is going to be north of the area.

[MJO812]

Not bad

Lets move this up

[Rtd208]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The long range EPS and GEFS continue to underestimate the Pacific Jet and the -PNA trough near the West Coast day 11-15. So a continuation of the day 11-15 forecasts struggling with the fast Pacific flow. These week 2 forecasts have been getting pushed back since late November.

New runs for Jan 10

Old runs

 

The fast PAC Jet has been our issue the last few winters and this one is no different at least so far.

[SnoSki14]

It's worth seeing a warm, snowless winter just to spite clowns like Joe Bastardi whose been calling for a cold/snowy winter. 

He's now saying volcanic activity in the ring of fire is what has led to warming oceans & climate essentially. Absolute lunatic 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The fast PAC Jet has been our issue the last few winters and this one is no different at least so far.

Need an EL Nino

There are many people on Twitter and other forums who are confident of a better pattern come mid month and forward .

Hopefully it comes through because this weather is boring .

[Rtd208]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's worth seeing a warm, snowless winter just to spite clowns like Joe Bastardi whose been calling for a cold/snowy winter. 

He's now saying volcanic activity in the ring of fire is what has led to warming oceans & climate essentially. Absolute lunatic 

To much creatine.