denvillenj Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Tatamy said: Did anyone else partake in last night’s car topper event? I just looked outside and I have a thin coating of snow on most surfaces. I noticed some very light snow/ flurries or a few minutes last night. Denville NJ Morris County 600ft elevation. No accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 If we get nothing next week it’s over until next winter. CPK. Will most likely finish with 0.0 on the year, which is incredible 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Warmest January on record so far for many stations from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 40.0 5 2 1990 36.9 1 3 2006 36.5 0 4 2017 35.6 1 - 2002 35.6 0 5 1998 35.4 11 6 2020 35.3 0 7 2012 34.4 0 - 2007 34.4 0 8 1967 33.8 0 9 1989 33.6 2 10 1995 33.5 4 - 1953 33.5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 44.2 5 2 1932 42.0 0 3 1990 40.4 0 4 1950 40.3 0 5 1998 40.1 0 6 2006 39.6 0 7 2002 39.4 0 8 1937 39.0 0 9 1933 38.8 0 10 2020 38.7 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 43.3 5 2 1932 43.2 0 3 1950 41.8 2 4 1990 41.4 0 5 2006 40.9 0 6 1913 40.8 0 7 1933 40.3 0 8 1937 40.2 0 9 1998 40.0 0 10 2002 39.9 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 41.5 5 2 1998 39.1 0 3 1995 38.0 0 4 1990 37.9 0 5 2002 37.7 0 6 2006 37.5 0 7 2020 37.3 0 8 2017 36.2 0 - 2012 36.2 0 9 2007 35.9 0 10 1975 35.0 0 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: If we get nothing next week it’s over until next winter. CPK. Will most likely finish with 0.0 on the year, which is incredible I don't see how we dodge next week. Models have snow south of us and the trend has been north all season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Warmest January on record so far for many stations from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. Incredible. Even a near normal January would feel frigid compared to this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 21 hours ago, matt8204 said: It's like rooting for a terrible sports team that has no shot of making the playoffs and the season is only half over. Just end it and get to free agency and the draft. As a Detroit Lions fan, this is the story of my life. Even the Lions performed better than Winter '22-'23 this season, not a good look Winter '22-'23. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Incredible. Even a near normal January would feel frigid compared to this Very unusual January 500 mb pattern for a La Niña. The strong Aleutian Low and California flooding was like a super El Niño. But there was no Nino trough over the SE US. More of a La Niña SE Ridge-Western Atlantic Ridge with the record warm pool off the East Coast. January 2023 January La Niña composite January El Niño composite Record warm Atlantic SSTs for January boosting the Western Atlantic ridge yet again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: so the warmup should commence around Feb 8th and last until the 21st Don? It would start during the second week of February. It's tough to pin down the exact dates. Then, it could continue for 1-2 weeks, but skill drops off sharply, so we'll have to see where things stand. There is some support on yesterday's EPS weeklies for such an outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 The last 5 days of January are averaging 40degs.(36/45) or +7. Month to date is 43.3[+9.5]. January should end at 42.6[+8.9] Second Place. Reached 57 here yesterday{midnight}. Today: 41-44, wind w., p.sunny, 37 tomorrow AM. GFS prepares to make Week 2 of February like Week 1 of January. Maybe 3 cold days [Feb. 2-5] then too mild for winter weather. It gets the snow right for the next 10 days at 0"---because it has no precipitation at all! Differs from other outputs. 37*(73%RH) here at 6am. 39* at 9am. 41* at 10am. 41* at Noon. 42* at 2pm. 43* at 3pm. 40* at 6pm. 38* at 9pm. 37* at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 9 hours ago, pazzo83 said: Is my count right that the city has only had 3 days so far this month of 32 or below? That's insane. Yes. The record fewest such days in January is 4. That occurred in 1932. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. The record fewest such days in January is 4. That occurred in 1932. POU hasn’t had any days yet with a 32° or lower high temperature. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature <= 32 Missing Count 1 2023 0 5 - 1933 0 2 - 1932 0 2 2 2002 2 0 - 1990 2 0 3 2006 3 0 - 1937 3 0 4 1975 4 0 - 1967 4 0 - 1947 4 0 - 1944 4 0 - 1931 4 4 5 2020 5 0 - 1995 5 0 - 1989 5 0 - 1949 5 0 Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Daily Data For a Month January 2023 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 52 38 45.0 16.4 20 0 T M M 2 55 31 43.0 14.5 22 0 0.00 M M 3 45 34 39.5 11.2 25 0 0.39 M M 4 53 41 47.0 18.9 18 0 0.15 M M 5 50 43 46.5 18.5 18 0 0.01 M M 6 49 36 42.5 14.6 22 0 0.30 M M 7 44 26 35.0 7.3 30 0 0.00 M M 8 38 20 29.0 1.4 36 0 0.00 M M 9 43 23 33.0 5.5 32 0 0.00 M M 10 42 28 35.0 7.7 30 0 0.00 M M 11 36 25 30.5 3.3 34 0 0.00 M M 12 51 34 42.5 15.4 22 0 0.27 M M 13 56 34 45.0 18.0 20 0 0.08 M M 14 34 28 31.0 4.1 34 0 T M M 15 36 25 30.5 3.7 34 0 T M M 16 40 24 32.0 5.2 33 0 0.00 M M 17 38 19 28.5 1.8 36 0 0.00 M M 18 52 30 41.0 14.4 24 0 0.00 M M 19 39 29 34.0 7.4 31 0 0.63 M M 20 46 37 41.5 14.9 23 0 0.01 M M 21 39 33 36.0 9.5 29 0 0.00 M M 22 41 32 36.5 10.0 28 0 0.20 M M 23 35 33 34.0 7.5 31 0 0.47 M M 24 40 33 36.5 10.0 28 0 0.00 M M 25 41 29 35.0 8.5 30 0 0.54 M M 26 44 37 40.5 14.0 24 0 0.26 M M 27 M M M M M M M M M 28 M M M M M M M M M 29 M M M M M M M M M 30 M M M M M M M M M 31 M M M M M M M M M ………………………………………………………+10.1 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1932 37.9 3 2 2023 37.3 5 3 1933 36.0 2 4 1990 34.8 0 5 1950 33.9 0 6 2006 33.8 0 7 1937 33.7 2 8 1947 33.3 0 9 2020 33.1 0 10 1995 33.0 0 11 2002 32.8 0 12 1998 32.6 0 13 2012 32.2 0 14 2017 32.1 0 15 1949 31.9 0 16 2016 31.5 0 - 2007 31.5 0 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It would start during the second week of February. It's tough to pin down the exact dates. Then, it could continue for 1-2 weeks, but skill drops off sharply, so we'll have to see where things stand. There is some support on yesterday's EPS weeklies for such an outcome. Looking at the seven day forecasts they have temps dropping off a cliff on Tuesday into the 30s for highs, I hope that waits a day I dont want the January avg temps to be tainted on the last day (it should be a 30 day month anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Some flurries now with the sun poking through the clouds. Also found some black ice, not by choice, in the parking lot at my sons pre-k. Be careful out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. The record fewest such days in January is 4. That occurred in 1932. Hopefully this record doesn't tainted on the last day either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: Very unusual January 500 mb pattern for a La Niña. The strong Aleutian Low and California flooding was like a super El Niño. But there was no Nino trough over the SE US. More of a La Niña SE Ridge-Western Atlantic Ridge with the record warm pool off the East Coast. January 2023 January La Niña composite January El Niño composite Record warm Atlantic SSTs for January boosting the Western Atlantic ridge yet again. Any idea why this happened, Chris? Was this similar to the pattern in Jan 1932? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I don't see how we dodge next week. Models have snow south of us and the trend has been north all season I just don't want fake Jan 31st tainting the January record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 51 minutes ago, bluewave said: Warmest January on record so far for many stations from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 40.0 5 2 1990 36.9 1 3 2006 36.5 0 4 2017 35.6 1 - 2002 35.6 0 5 1998 35.4 11 6 2020 35.3 0 7 2012 34.4 0 - 2007 34.4 0 8 1967 33.8 0 9 1989 33.6 2 10 1995 33.5 4 - 1953 33.5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 44.2 5 2 1932 42.0 0 3 1990 40.4 0 4 1950 40.3 0 5 1998 40.1 0 6 2006 39.6 0 7 2002 39.4 0 8 1937 39.0 0 9 1933 38.8 0 10 2020 38.7 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 43.3 5 2 1932 43.2 0 3 1950 41.8 2 4 1990 41.4 0 5 2006 40.9 0 6 1913 40.8 0 7 1933 40.3 0 8 1937 40.2 0 9 1998 40.0 0 10 2002 39.9 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 41.5 5 2 1998 39.1 0 3 1995 38.0 0 4 1990 37.9 0 5 2002 37.7 0 6 2006 37.5 0 7 2020 37.3 0 8 2017 36.2 0 - 2012 36.2 0 9 2007 35.9 0 10 1975 35.0 0 2023 pulls ahead of 1932! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: How much did you get? I saw that you wrote cartopped? I dont believe that 3-6 is from one event, just the overall snowcover on the ground there right now. 0.20”. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 What an amazingly putrid Pacific this January has been too. You'd be hard pressed to draw it up much worse than this. Looks a little bit like the 1933 January Pacific did actually, but with a much much flatter Pacific Ridge this year. Wildly bad. Feel free to fade away la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Other snow oddities: First measurable etc. 1997-98 Jan. 18 0.5" then 2+ months later! Mar. 22 5.0" ends season at 5.5" but Mar. 27-31 HW 83,80,81,82,86 !!! 1972-73 Jan. 29 1.8" Feb. 16 0.8" Mar. 18 0.2" ends season at 2.8", least ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 2023 pulls ahead of 1932! A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño. NYC Jan 23…+9.5 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.5 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.9 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño. NYC Jan 23…+9.5 Dec 22…-0.6 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 But you just know all the denialists will point to no human made climate change because of that January 1932 record, that's why it needs to be taken down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: I don't see how we dodge next week. Models have snow south of us and the trend has been north all season While the above is my first instinct too I wouldn’t necessarily use the rest of the winter as a guideline to forecast next week. We haven’t really had the type of cold airmass we’ll have next week so everything could get squashed south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 27 degrees this morning. Frigid for 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Some great stats in here this morning. Thanks to those that dig into the record books. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: If we get nothing next week it’s over until next winter. CPK. Will most likely finish with 0.0 on the year, which is incredible incredible but easily foreseeable from last week onward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño. NYC Jan 23…+9.5 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.5 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.9 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9 Which is why I'm not convinced a Nino next winter will help. Seem a Nino got us into this mess. Besides, we need changes in the Atlantic as well (regardless of ENSO). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 The least snowy winter I recall in my area is 3.5 inches, I think in 2000-2001. So a winter like this is not unprecedented and we still have a ways to go to far exceed the 3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: If we get nothing next week it’s over until next winter. CPK. Will most likely finish with 0.0 on the year, which is incredible Through March 1st or March 20th? No doubt its been terrible and doesn't look good, but betting on 0.0 for the year would be a brave bet, just because something somehow always materializes, however weak or late in the game it may be. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, lee59 said: The least snowy winter I recall in my area is 3.5 inches, I think in 2000-2001. So a winter like this is not unprecedented and we still have a ways to go to far exceed the 3.5 That was 2001-02. 2000-01 was a snowy winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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