January 2023

[matt8204]

3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

I doubt it really matters. I'm ready for spring. Enough of this. Of course, we are stuck with it a few more weeks. Weeks, that's all, then we won't have to think about it until next Dec. 

It's like rooting for a terrible sports team that has no shot of making the playoffs and the season is only half over.  Just end it and get to free agency and the draft.

[matt8204]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Going back 365 days we're still a few inches below normal actually.

Also with warmer waters we will likely see more, not less rain moving forward. Summer 2022 was an anomaly imo

Wow.  Thought for sure we'd be caught up on the rain deficit after the last few months.  We've had several doozies where it was just raining buckets.  

[gravitylover]

Every time someone mentions 97/98 I cringe because that's the year I jumped in with both feet and moved my fledgling ski shop into a bigger more expensive building. When it snowed 5" in early December I breathed a sigh of relief but then it didn't snow again until March  It took three years to "dig out" from that mess. 

Yes eastern LI, especially the North Shore/North Fork have somewhat similar weather as SNE but that area and SNE south of I90 and east of I91 is going to succumb to the effects of  warmer N Atlantic waters sooner rather than later. What's the solution? Melt a bunch of glaciers in Greenland and cool it down? That seems as though it would have other effects that may not be appreciated along the coast and may not be appreciated.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Every time someone mentions 97/98 I cringe because that's the year I jumped in with both feet and moved my fledgling ski shop into a bigger more expensive building. When it snowed 5" in early December I breathed a sigh of relief but then it didn't snow again until March  It took three years to "dig out" from that mess. 

Yes eastern LI, especially the North Shore/North Fork have somewhat similar weather as SNE but that area and SNE south of I90 and east of I91 is going to succumb to the effects of  warmer N Atlantic waters sooner rather than later. What's the solution? Melt a bunch of glaciers in Greenland and cool it down? That seems as though it would have other effects that may not be appreciated along the coast and may not be appreciated.

It's more than just about the weather though.  The Maine lobster business is all but finished and we've just about depleted all our fisheries.

The lobsters are going north into Maritime Canada.

 

[gravitylover]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's more than just about the weather though.  The Maine lobster business is all but finished and we've just about depleted all our fisheries.

The lobsters are going north into Maritime Canada.

 

Melt the glaciers and bring back the lobsters! And the cod and so on and so on.

[JTA66]

13 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

It's like rooting for a terrible sports team that has no shot of making the playoffs and the season is only half over.  Just end it and get to free agency and the draft.

My life as a Flyers fan. You forgot to add bad, veteran contracts that are untradeable, up against the cap so free agency isn't an option and you win just enough games to not suck enough to draft in the top 5...yeah, winter 2022-23. 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah NYC has more of a midatlantic climate,  NE is like another world.

When I was younger and first learning about the Koppen climate classification I remember NYC most certainly was still in DFa Humid Continental. So was most of NJ. From my memory only Cape May through about ACY was considered CFa Humid Subtropical. Regardless, things are quite different now. But I’ve seen maps suggesting SEMA along the Cape and even up to BOS along the coast is beginning to fall into CFa classification as well. It’s not just us, and that’s only going to worsen. 

Also remember the line between DFa and CFa is very marginal; it comes down to whether at least one month averages above or below 32F. We’ll still (I think) have some months that hit that mark, though it’s more about averages for the classification system of course. Still, that inherently doesn’t mean much IMHO. Whole area is still near the border of two climate zones, but of course it will continue shifting with time. I find this stuff very fascinating though. 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Months are made of weeks....I'm confident though, that we will be done in weeks, not months. It may say winter on the calendar, but it's toast. 6 weeks. Maybe earlier. Will eat crow if I'm wrong, but even one storm isn't gonna turn this around.

Maybe it will be like 98 and we'll have 80s in March 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

When I was younger and first learning about the Koppen climate classification I remember NYC most certainly was still in DFa Humid Continental. So was most of NJ. From my memory only Cape May through about ACY was considered CFa Humid Subtropical. Regardless, things are quite different now. But I’ve seen maps suggesting SEMA along the Cape and even up to BOS along the coast is beginning to fall into CFa classification as well. It’s not just us, and that’s only going to worsen. 

Also remember the line between DFa and CFa is very marginal; it comes down to whether at least one month averages above or below 32F. We’ll still (I think) have some months that hit that mark, though it’s more about averages for the classification system of course. Still, that inherently doesn’t mean much IMHO. Whole area is still near the border of two climate zones, but of course it will continue shifting with time. I find this stuff very fascinating though. 

It also has to do with Miller B's though and how those storms strengthen a bit too late for us on the western side and are better east and northeast of us.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe it will be like 98 and we'll have 80s in March 

Or March 1990 which I enjoyed more (more long duration heat earlier in the month.)

 

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Seeing snow show up to our south on the models is def a refreshing site. 

12z CMC warms us up for another rainstorm the end of next week, but yeah it is good to see some other model runs actually missing us to the south. I'm not that optimistic, but at least we can say we have a period of better potential next week. Anything is possible from a snowstorm to a miss to the south to another cutter, but it looks like at least a slightly better shot than what we've had.

Hopefully something will work out next week, since there are strong signs that we'll go into another warm pattern after that. Would be horrible to go the whole winter without 1 decent snow event, so keeping my fingers crossed for next week. 

[mannynyc]

Not a bad look for January 31st/February 1st from the 12z GEFS ensembles.

[vegan_edible]

looking at the models noticing things to the south of us producing gives me hope of systems moving north and west because of this longstanding southeast ridge that models cant seem to account for. maybe, just maybe this could play out for us. however, when it comes to this stuff i cant tell my ass from a hole in the ground so someone please chime in and tell me if this is stupid logic

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Melt the glaciers and bring back the lobsters! And the cod and so on and so on.

When I was a kid there was a significant Long Island Sound lobster business.  Now they're even struggling in Maine.  

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

looking at the models noticing things to the south of us producing gives me hope of systems moving north and west because of this longstanding southeast ridge that models cant seem to account for. maybe, just maybe this could play out for us. however, when it comes to this stuff i cant tell my ass from a hole in the ground so someone please chime in and tell me if this is stupid logic

I think your thinking is right here. I always feel more optimistic when I see storms to the south of us in this range than when they are north of us. It doesn't mean they will work out, sometimes they end up actually suppressed or could still trend well north like the 12Z GGEM but theres at least a chance. 

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

When I was a kid there was a significant Long Island Sound lobster business.  Now they're even struggling in Maine.  

They never recovered from the big die off in the late 90's which was never solved (some though it was from malathion they sprayed for west nile)

[JerseyWx]

4 hours ago, rgwp96 said:

1 inch of snow and 2.14 of rain lol

Thanks, kinda figured around that lol.

[NorthShoreWx]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

They never recovered from the big die off in the late 90's which was never solved (some though it was from malathion they sprayed for west nile)

There were a few main theories.  Another was some kind of pathogen.  The water warming is probably what prevents recovery.

[NorthShoreWx]

N Smithtown rainfall for yesterday's event was 1.52".

We had a mix of snow and rain for a couple of hours.  Briefly mostly snow, but very wet.  Temp fell from 42 to 36 during the mixed precip then maxed at 56 shortly before 1am this morning.

[Winterweatherlover]

Euro looks great for next weekend, only 9 days away lol. 

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Euro looks great for next weekend, only 9 days away lol. 

LMAOOO yeah lets hope that wednesday system somehow pans out in our favor too

[EasternLI]

That was slightly intriguing from 12z. I thought the gfs was on drugs trying to pull up some blocking to Greenland later in the run. Bit eyebrow raising to see the euro trying to do that too at the end though. So this is a little bit different now from the gfs. That was the first run trying to push down some of the weakening winds from upstairs into the troposphere. Not sure if the euro is trying that too. Curious to see if that keeps showing up now though. 

[winterwx21]

8 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

LMAOOO yeah lets hope that wednesday system somehow pans out in our favor too

Yeah the 12zEuro has light snow missing us to the south tuesday night into wednesday with that weak storm. Last night's Euro was more north with it so it gave us a few inches. Yesterday's Euro had this as a warm cutter, so who knows what it will look like tomorrow with how these models flip flop around. Hopefully this colder look will hold so we'll have a chance. 

Day 9 storm of course is too far out to take very seriously. The CMC gives us mostly rain but this Euro run is mostly snow, although it's very close to changing us over to mix/rain since the cold air is pulling out at that point. A long way to go with that one. 

[Winterweatherlover]

22 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

LMAOOO yeah lets hope that wednesday system somehow pans out in our favor too

That one seems pretty weak but would be nice to finally end the drought. Also a lot can change next week but right now seems like some weak waves and then a bigger storm late week/over the weekend. 

[Winterweatherlover]

23 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah the 12zEuro has light snow missing us to the south tuesday night into wednesday with that weak storm. Last night's Euro was more north with it so it gave us a few inches. Yesterday's Euro had this as a warm cutter, so who knows what it will look like tomorrow with how these models flip flop around. Hopefully this colder look will hold so we'll have a chance. 

Day 9 storm of course is too far out to take very seriously. The CMC gives us mostly rain but this Euro run is mostly snow, although it's very close to changing us over to mix/rain since the cold air is pulling out at that point. A long way to go with that one. 

I might be wrong here but wouldn't we maybe want the weaker mid week wave to stay to our south and reinforce the cold air for the bigger storm? 
 

I guess alternatively though looking at gefs ensembles that wave could become a bigger storm. 

[rgwp96]

58 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Thanks, kinda figured around that lol.

Brings my yearly total snowfall to 4.3 inches lol

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

Brings my yearly total snowfall to 4.3 inches lol

snowy compared to here.  We are at an inch

[FPizz]

Windy out there.  Just had a gust to 39.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Picked up a half inch yesterday, big whoop, brings me to 7 for the season. Again, big whoop. 

[jm1220]

31 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I might be wrong here but wouldn't we maybe want the weaker mid week wave to stay to our south and reinforce the cold air for the bigger storm? 
 

I guess alternatively though looking at gefs ensembles that wave could become a bigger storm. 

“Bigger storm” this year without blocking probably means cutter or SWFE. I’d gladly take a smaller few inch type event.