January 2023

[Brian5671]

Even today is not that cold-45-47 in the area...still above normal

[CIK62]

The next BN day has slid forward to Feb. 03.   Jan. 28,29 had looked good.     It would be 37 straight days since the last one.       First snow date is unknown and may not happen even  during a relatively BN  period   Feb. 03-10.        Accuweather actually has under 1" for the rest of the winter.

Remember if we get no snow---then every model, and every run of that model which indicated snow---Was Wrong!

So again I ask.......which model has shown snow the fewest times?       Start Dec. 01 for the  GFS, EURO, CMC.     Go thru Jan. 31. 

That would be 4 runs/day * 62 days * 3 models, or 744 separate runs.       Who would win?       I bet there would a Tie if we conducted this test in J,J,A.        LOL

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

JMHO, I feel like it's la nina. It feels semi permanent because we're dealing with this multi year la nina. There was a time I recall, some years ago now, where the +PNA was viewed in the same way. When we had a more el nino like phase going on. It'll likely change, it all works in cycles.

We need to be careful though in current times. The Pacific warm pool area likes to drive a -PNA. Depending upon how it's positioned. This is why la nina often does that. It's a prominent component in these. That area is also expected to continue to expand and get warmer as the years go by. It's a huge reason why we'll often bring up that particular feature. It's very important. But recall the discussion about gradients. La nina amplifies this effect by increasing that gradient with cool water to the east. 

We see these stronger bermuda ridges in el ninos now too, not only that but we are seeing them every summer now taking the heat further north into new england and SE canada.  It's disappointing to me because that means less heat for us on Long Island

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Even today is not that cold-45-47 in the area...still above normal

and the forecast temps for tomorrow have gone up

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Winter Wizard said:

The upcoming pattern certainly seems like December deja vu. EPO block rivaling December's (which has trended stronger every day since 0z Thursday) will dump the extreme cold into the N Rockies and Plains but will struggle to make it to the East Coast until probably the end of next week thanks to the SE ridge. Then there will be a few days below average, but as blocking retreats, we return to the canonical Nina pattern and I think the Northeast torches yet again while the West is cool and stormy. If things align, I think there could be a good opportunity to score something in the 2/2-2/7 timeframe as the Metro rides the boundary between polar cold to N and W and the lingering SE ridge, but after that, I don't see much to be enthused about. 

I wonder how much these offensively warm NW Atlantic waters have to do with the RRSER (ridiculously resilient southeast ridge) and the stoppage of cold air reaching the east coast.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Is the SE ridge becoming a more permanent fixture of our winter weather? Or is it more due to the recurring La Niñas we’ve been having? I have no way of analyzing that outside of finding it concerning how it’s a recurring problem almost regardless of the pattern, and how it seemed to pop up intrusively less often in the past. 

Again this is beyond the scope of my knowledge but if it’s conclusively tied to SST’s in the Atlantic that seems like it’ll continue to be a big problem. I’m sure there’s more to it than that (I hope so). 

Just wondering aloud. 

It seems to be, it's been doing this in the summer too.

I think going forward ENSO will matter much less as these warm NW Atlantic waters will create a permanent SE Ridge near our area.

 

[Poker2015]

On 1/23/2023 at 12:37 PM, FPizz said:

At my work, 400' or so up in nw somerset county, all it ever did was mix with snow here briefly.  Otherwise its been all rain.  

My wife who is home said we had some non-sticking snow there.  Did you see anything @Poker2015?  Oh well. The misery continues....

Sorry, just saw this. It mixed with snow a few times yesterday, but nothing sticking.

[Winterweatherlover]

51 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

I’m not hopeful we will get measurable snow tomorrow but I’m not as pessimistic as some people. There will be cold air in place, and a change in just 20 miles could be the difference between snow and rain. This is not a situation where snow is missing us 100 miles north, Also, it’s just more fun to be optimistic. 

I try to be open minded (not pessimistic or optimistic) I really do but everytime the RGEM has gone up against the NAM/GFS it has schooled them in this range. I'm not basing no snow in NYC on whats happened thus far this winter, i'm basing it on what models I trust most at this point. Hopefully we are miraculously surprised tomorrow.  

[Winterweatherlover]

Honestly just laughuable differences NW of the city for a day out

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023012412&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=nam

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012412&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[matt8204]

24 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next BN day has slid forward to Feb. 03.   Jan. 28,29 had looked good.     It would be 37 straight days since the last one.       First snow date is unknown and may not happen even  during a relatively BN  period   Feb. 03-10.        Accuweather actually has under 1" for the rest of the winter.

Remember if we get no snow---then every model, and every run of that model which indicated snow---Was Wrong!

So again I ask.......which model has shown snow the fewest times?       Start Dec. 01 for the  GFS, EURO, CMC.     Go thru Jan. 31. 

That would be 4 runs/day * 62 days * 3 models, or 744 separate runs.       Who would win?       I bet there would a Tie if we conducted this test in J,J,A.        LOL

Until it actually gets cold, I'm going to assume it won't.  This happens constantly with the models.  The cold is always two weeks away, then gets pushed back or disappears altogether.  

[snowman19]

Honestly just laughuable differences NW of the city for a day out
 
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023012412&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=nam
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012412&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

The NAM sucks. It completely busted yesterday. The 3K NAM barely has anything at all in Rockland, nothing south of there

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM sucks. It completely busted yesterday

not even that cold out...city-coast should expect nothing given the lousy airmass and warm ground.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Honestly just laughuable differences NW of the city for a day out

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023012412&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=nam

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012412&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Might come down to nowcasting tomorrow. If we see a heavy overrunning band headed through PA/NY we’ll know the NAM’s right. If not the RGEM’s right. My goose is cooked here but good luck for northern areas. 

[North and West]

Re: this winter working out, where I think we are psychologically.


.

[Winterweatherlover]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM sucks. It completely busted yesterday. The 3K NAM barely has anything at all in Rockland, nothing south of there

I know the NAM is probably wrong, I just don't get how two models can look so different this close to an event.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, North and West said:

Re: this winter working out, where I think we are psychologically.


.

Maybe a few in denial but most are accepting this will be a crap winter. I had 23” for Central Park which will almost certainly bust way high but I was pretty clear eyed about how a third year Nina could be a disaster. There’s time for us to go on a 2-3 week good run but if this early Feb period doesn’t do it somehow it’s hard for me to see pulling out a March miracle. I was banking on that 2-3 week run like Jan last winter and Feb 2021 getting us some decent events but it’s hard to see that happening at this point. 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

We always talk about these one and done winters where we threaded the needle. With how warm our winters are getting now I think that will become a thing of the past. It’s seems like now we need the perfect set up just to get a few inches 

The last 30 yr. average for snowfall at Central Park has to be one of the highest 30 yr. averages since records have been taken. Maybe this is just the law of averages taking over and we got a little spoiled.

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe a few in denial but most are accepting this will be a crap winter. I had 23” for Central Park which will almost certainly bust way high but I was pretty clear eyed about how a third year Nina could be a disaster. There’s time for us to go on a 2-3 week good run but if this early Feb period doesn’t do it somehow it’s hard for me to see pulling out a March miracle. I was banking on that 2-3 week run like Jan last winter and Feb 2021 getting us some decent events but it’s hard to see that happening at this point. 

23 still possible but starting to get to the point where we need a Feb 06 redux or some big storm-doubtful we get a pattern that yields a bunch of small/medium events this year.

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The last 30 yr. average for snowfall at Central Park has to be one of the highest 30 yr. averages since records have been taken. Maybe this is just the law of averages taking over and we got a little spoiled.

The average will plummet in the era of warming. That is what you see now.

You will wish you had the 80s again in 20 years. You will have Virginia. And not mountainous VA 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

23 still possible but starting to get to the point where we need a Feb 06 redux or some big storm-doubtful we get a pattern that yields a bunch of small/medium events this year.

Seems like we don’t have wall to wall winters anymore. 13-14 might have been the closest to that recently but we now have these 2-3 week periods where we have to run up the totals. 15-16 had the late Jan/early Feb period, 2020-21 had Feb (plus the Dec storm that was good for most), 17-18 had March and the 1/4/18 bomb, last winter had Jan, etc. 

[cleetussnow]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe a few in denial but most are accepting this will be a crap winter. I had 23” for Central Park which will almost certainly bust way high but I was pretty clear eyed about how a third year Nina could be a disaster. There’s time for us to go on a 2-3 week good run but if this early Feb period doesn’t do it somehow it’s hard for me to see pulling out a March miracle. I was banking on that 2-3 week run like Jan last winter and Feb 2021 getting us some decent events but it’s hard to see that happening at this point. 

Not on the optimist train myself and not feeding that fire, but a couple of storms can get it to ~23.  Perhaps we get one early Feb and then a March storm to close it out? Below normal forecast was a good call even if turns out high.  Directionally correct.

[Volcanic Winter]

46 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The last 30 yr. average for snowfall at Central Park has to be one of the highest 30 yr. averages since records have been taken. Maybe this is just the law of averages taking over and we got a little spoiled. 

 

https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/snowmaps2/Great Atlantic coastal snowstorms.pdf

Was just reading through this today getting myself depressed, some of these winters had to have been absolute blockbusters. I’m sure 30 year averages throughout this period at times were higher than today, though climatologically of course the LIA was very different to now. It does suggest IMHO that temperature will become a bigger and bigger issue as time goes on. For all we know the less snowy periods of the 80’s etc that are often mentioned were the actual anomalies, when going off a paltry number of years of data. 
 

I just always see people argue the less snowy periods are inherently more normal than the snowy periods, and I don’t necessarily know if we can say that for sure. Just my thoughts on it.

[snowman19]

NAM caved to the RGEM

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The last 30 yr. average for snowfall at Central Park has to be one of the highest 30 yr. averages since records have been taken. Maybe this is just the law of averages taking over and we got a little spoiled.

It depends on how far you go back.

The 153 year average is 28.8 inches so the 29.8 for the 1991-2020 period is right there. We are in a 50 year period of extremes now. 1971-2000 was the lowest average on record. 2001-2020 one of the highest 20 year averages on record.

One thing that is indisputable. The 30 year averages in temperature keep going up and for most of the I95 corridor that will eventually lead to real problems getting consistent and sustainable snow.

[wishcast_hater]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

NAM caved to the RGEM

pics?

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

we had lots of cold and nickel and dime events during the "bad" 80s. this is a complete shutout with a +11 january departure at ewr

The 90s are a better comp. IMO.

[EasternLI]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

NAM caved to the RGEM

Euro stopped trying and isn't even out yet 

[MJO812]

I forgot what snow looked like

This is sad

[lee59]

Large area of winter weather advisories and warnings in the eastern U.S.  Mostly just the immediate coast in our area not under an advisory. NWS still has the city getting a little snow.

[lee59]

As you get into the Mid Hudson Valley and north and west, could be a nice thumping of snow before any mixing.