January 2023

[snowman19]

Lag effects from the imminent phase 3 forcing is going to want to shift the vortex towards Alaska beyond what we're seeing now I think. March I'm not sure, always a tricky month. But I feel like north America could be in rough shape in terms of cold if it plays out like that. 

Yea, I was looking at the composites last night. If the vortex moves over AK mid-late February, the EPO floodgates open wide and it’s game over winter 22-23

[CIK62]

After some snow on Feb. 01, we will have three cold, dry days and then a big warmup for Weeks 2,3 gets underway.      Now the AN will be in the 50's and 60's.      Week 4 tries to get back to at least Normal.     You can see why Accuweather ditched the coast.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The problem I have with this, is that it all but guarantees we get nothing and have no chances. Have to have some cold around to get snow. Even average temps will still work. If we completely go roasty toasty then it well and truly is over. 

I get what you’re saying, “if it’s not going to snow it may as well be warm.” Reasonable, except we can’t know precisely how many snow chances we’ll have and how many would be closer with a better air mass. Better off taking whatever seasonal cold we can get and hoping we get lucky. IMHO. Of course it doesn’t matter anyway since our thoughts / emotions / wants and needs don’t dictate the weather (if they did, NJ would be Siberia - sorry guys ).

Also have better chance of threading needle and getting snow with an active pattern rather than a dry one. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It might propagate out into the Pacific in early March? I don’t know, I’m starting to think March isn’t going to be all that good. If the SPV restrengthens mid-late February, I think it’s over

If you're relying on March to deliver then you're already screwed. 

I see two potential periods for snow. Early Feb and late Feb-early March. 

Could there be a fluke event outside of that sure, is it likely probably not. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you're relying on March to deliver then you're already screwed. 

I see two potential periods for snow. Early Feb and late Feb-early March. 

Could there be a fluke event outside of that sure, is it likely probably not. 

Early Feb's another cutter

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Early Feb's another cutter

It could be but with arctic cold pressing down that may trend better. 

[snowman19]

The RGEM has no front end at all now. Even up in Rockland County. It has it starting as rain. You can’t make this winter up

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think we need more information.

We will have 4 below average snowfall seasons in 5 years. If we get 1 above average and 1 average snowfall winter in the next 5 we will match the 90s 

Now, if we only get 1 average or above average snowfall winter over next 5, then we at least have some evidence.

Also, if we go 20 years with less than 5 average to below average snowfall winters. 

The problem when correlating CC to snowfall is that we have had a wretched stretch from 1970 through 1999, so it will take a LOT to definitively correlate the two.

Also who knows how CC will ultimately affect our snowfall chances. Some of those terrible 80s winters where all the snow was to our south may end up squarely hitting us. Now our 80s patter repeat could be historically snowy.

To sum up, nobody at this time can make a definitive statement that the current (only 5 year) stretch is "the new norm". It's impossible to know. We need more time.

We have access to more information....by using data from all over the world.  We don't have to limit ourselves to just our backyards.

The thing you mentioned about storm tracks moving farther north is exactly the argument I used for why it got snowier in the 2000s and 2010s.  Eventually though those tracks will/are moving even further north, and we even see heat going north of us in the summer with the Bermuda High located at a higher latitude sending the most anomalous heat into New England and Atlantic Canada (which is also causing the Maine lobster season to move into the Maritime Provinces.)  

Point being that yes it's shifting farther north, but it will also continue to do so.

 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It could be but with arctic cold pressing down that may trend better. 

Without any blocking it might just be that behind the cutters in early Feb it will just get cold before the next cutter. The PNA ridge axis is still too far west to allow offshore storm tracks here. Until that ridge meaningfully comes onshore and is centered over ID/UT maybe, we keep the cutters. Maybe that’s where we can get some front end snow before rain if the general regime is colder. 

[TWCCraig]

26 coldest temp so far this January. Absolutely unreal. Reminds me a bit of December 2015, even though that was warmer compared to normal.

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, I was looking at the composites last night. If the vortex moves over AK mid-late February, the EPO floodgates open wide and it’s game over winter 22-23

although we can say it never even started lol, it was just one long fall

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We have access to more information....by using data from all over the world.  We don't have to limit ourselves to just our backyards.

The thing you mentioned about storm tracks moving farther north is exactly the argument I used for why it got snowier in the 2000s and 2010s.  Eventually though those tracks will/are moving even further north, and we even see heat going north of us in the summer with the Bermuda High located at a higher latitude sending the most anomalous heat into New England and Atlantic Canada (which is also causing the Maine lobster season to move into the Maritime Provinces.)  

Point being that yes it's shifting farther north, but it will also continue to do so.

 

Let's give it time. When we stop seeing historic snowfall seasons to our south like last year in the Delmarva, or historic low temps like this year in Russia, then we know it's over. 

We can have separate conclusions and revisit in a couple years.

IMO 2000 through 2018 was 1955 through 1969 with the bouts of blocking and east coast troughs.

Now we are in a 1990s patter.

Before the board explodes YES it IS WARMER. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Without any blocking it might just be that behind the cutters in early Feb it will just get cold before the next cutter. The PNA ridge axis is still too far west to allow offshore storm tracks here. Until that ridge meaningfully comes onshore and is centered over ID/UT maybe, we keep the cutters. Maybe that’s where we can get some front end snow before rain if the general regime is colder. 

I thought the strong SE ridge is why we're getting cutters?

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Let's give it time. When we stop seeing historic snowfall seasons to our south like last year in the Delmarva, or historic low temps like this year in Russia, then we know it's over. 

We can have separate conclusions and revisit in a couple years.

IMO 2000 through 2018 was 1955 through 1969 with the bouts of blocking and east coast troughs.

Now we are in a 1990s patter.

Before the board explodes YES it IS WARMER. 

I will say that back in the 90s I made some observations about why it seems to snow more to our south and to our north.  NY is in a bad position for storm tracks, there is a storm track to our south and another storm track to our north.  For us to get snowstorms we need both to phase (and thus create coastals), so we're much more dependent on coastals than either those to our north and or those to our south.  Now, as that southern storm track shifts north we can get hit by those storms, but that adds another complication-- we have the ocean to our south, while the people to our south have an ocean to their east.  That actually makes us much more sensitive to changeovers than those to our south would be with a relatively similar storm track.  The moral of the story is, if you have the ocean to your south, you'll get screwed before those who have the ocean to their east will.

Same is true in the summer, if you're a fan of extreme heat (and I am) you don't want the ocean to your south, you'd rather have it to your east so the ocean doesn't taint big heatwaves.

[USCG RS]

 

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Before the board explodes YES it IS WARMER. 

Was about to say: Careful. You're questioning some's religion 

[North and West]

New here?
 
he loves popping peoples winter balloons. Like a grinch for snow People were actually looking for him this winter as he would thrive in the misery of the board….and then he showed up haha
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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[JustinRP37]

Looking ahead, I don't see even many nights conducive to snow making. I think this will be a short ski season for most wrapping up in early March in southern New England and early April for most of New England. This won't be a season where we see skiing on Superstar at Killington through May. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The RGEM has no front end at all now. Even up in Rockland County. It has it starting as rain. You can’t make this winter up

It's very unimpressed with the front end snows but we will see if it is right. It has me getting .5 inch up here and every other model has 2-4. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

yes, it does. whenever there’s a transition to a warmer pattern that night prior and the nights of the pattern experience particularly high UHI effects.

 

I posted about this in December and somebody responded with a pretty thorough analysis of it having to do with the wind vs radiational cooling. 

 

There’s a bit more there though. The overnight temperatures have been rising due to increased moisture in air (humidity). This is particularly noticeable in the summer, but goes on throughout the year. However, the UHI seems to be particularly affected by this phenomenon.

 

 

Hopefully NYC projects to greenify the city will mute some of this UHI (the goal is to make NYC 30% green by 2030.)  We have a lot of rooftop gardens and do urban farming in the city now for better health,  We need to get rid of all this ugly concrete-- once and for all!

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Early Feb will be the best chance of snow for the season. Cold air bleeding south and clashing against the SE ridge.

These gradients can sometimes result in tons of snow.

MJO phase 3 is also quite favorable for us and snow climo maxes out

After that La Nina Feb fully takes over most likely with late Feb into early March the next chance at something. 

It would be hard to dodge the coming period with nothing. I doubt the futility records will stand. 

That gradient will very likely be north of our area.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, North and West said:

I’m all for reconvening at Thanksgiving. This year isn’t it.

(With that said, I’m only two years removed from a very snowy February… which is when our puppy came home (January 31, 2021))

There’s a path I had to dig out for him as he was potty training.



.

Your puppy came home...did he get lost before that?   That's rough man.

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought the strong SE ridge is why we're getting cutters?

 

If the trough axis is over the Midwest it promotes the strong SE ridge, so we get cutters. We need the Pacific to cooperate and move the West Coast ridge inland. Otherwise the general storm track will favor cutters. The big PV over Canada if that happens would just mean it gets colder in between cutters/SWFEs. We’re also not seeing signs of blocking which would force redevelopments south of us. 

[USCG RS]

Just now, jm1220 said:

If the trough axis is over the Midwest it promotes the strong SE ridge, so we get cutters. We need the Pacific to cooperate and move the West Coast ridge inland. Otherwise the general storm track will favor cutters. The big PV over Canada if that happens would just mean it gets colder in between cutters/SWFEs. 

I agree 100%. The Pac dominates our weather more than just about anything. There is absolutely no threading the needle when the PNA will not cooperate. 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, eduggs said:

Nothing of interest for as far as the models can reasonably see for the 55th day in a row or something like that. I vaguely remember some threats of interest in late November. The mid-range modeling has been really good. Unfortunately that has meant really boring tracking.

The problem is the modeling always seems to be good when it shows no snow....why is that I wonder?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the trough axis is over the Midwest it promotes the strong SE ridge, so we get cutters. We need the Pacific to cooperate and move the West Coast ridge inland. Otherwise the general storm track will favor cutters. The big PV over Canada if that happens would just mean it gets colder in between cutters/SWFEs. We’re also not seeing signs of blocking which would force redevelopments south of us. 

this definitely is an 80s type hostile Pacific

Back then it would get cold in between rainstorms...the only frozen I remember most years was frozen puddles lol.

[North and West]

Your puppy came home...did he get lost before that?   That's rough man.

No, we just adopted him on January 31st.


.

[NorthShoreWx]

43 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Looking ahead, I don't see even many nights conducive to snow making. I think this will be a short ski season for most wrapping up in early March in southern New England and early April for most of New England. This won't be a season where we see skiing on Superstar at Killington through May. 

They'll blow snow on Superstar in April if they have too.

[SnoSki14]

41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That gradient will very likely be north of our area.

 

It's too early to say

[Winter Wizard]

The upcoming pattern certainly seems like December deja vu. EPO block rivaling December's (which has trended stronger every day since 0z Thursday) will dump the extreme cold into the N Rockies and Plains but will struggle to make it to the East Coast until probably the end of next week thanks to the SE ridge. Then there will be a few days below average, but as blocking retreats, we return to the canonical Nina pattern and I think the Northeast torches yet again while the West is cool and stormy. If things align, I think there could be a good opportunity to score something in the 2/2-2/7 timeframe as the Metro rides the boundary between polar cold to N and W and the lingering SE ridge, but after that, I don't see much to be enthused about. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Is the SE ridge becoming a more permanent fixture of our winter weather? Or is it more due to the recurring La Niñas we’ve been having? I have no way of analyzing that outside of finding it concerning how it’s a recurring problem almost regardless of the pattern, and how it seemed to pop up intrusively less often in the past. 

Again this is beyond the scope of my knowledge but if it’s conclusively tied to SST’s in the Atlantic that seems like it’ll continue to be a big problem. I’m sure there’s more to it than that (I hope so). 

Just wondering aloud.