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January 2023


wdrag
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Amazing heading into the last full week of January and ski area are still far from 100% open. This “season” really sucks. I’m just ready to get it over with at this point. Even if things get cold for March it’s too late imo. everyday is the same right now cloudy and damp or rainy.  

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

RGEM shuts out most south of I-84 on the rest of this storm and Wed. Warmer than most other models but a distinct possibility if the ESE flow gets to work on the boundary layer before the precip moves in, the main overrunning push when it would be cold enough misses us, etc. 

RGEM has no precip into NYC until 7 pm Wed. I’d be surprised if that happens 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

With no ssw I doubt the end of Feb and march would be interesting. 

Yeah, that's where I'm at too. I've been thinking that for a while. I'm with you on this. Maybe we send the vortex on the Alaskan tour and fire up a warm spring. That would be fine with me after this mess. 

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Yeah, that's where I'm at too. I've been thinking that for a while. I'm with you on this. Maybe we send the vortex on the Alaskan tour and fire up a warm spring. That would be fine with me after this mess. 

If the SPV restrengthens in mid-late February my cold/possibly snowy March idea is going to go down in flames
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23 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

GFS appears to be slightly colder for Wednesday. 

Where the overrunning precip goes when it's still cold enough is very important, GFS does have a period of snow on Wed before it gets too warm. RGEM holds the precip back until it's too warm and the NAM seems to overshoot it north of NYC and it doesn't really get going near the coast until it's too late. Regardless, the snow will be washed away for 90% of this subforum by the end of it.

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Where the overrunning precip goes when it's still cold enough is very important, GFS does have a period of snow on Wed before it gets too warm. RGEM holds the precip back until it's too warm and the NAM seems to overshoot it north of NYC and it doesn't really get going near the coast until it's too late. Regardless, the snow will be washed away for 90% of this subforum by the end of it.

If the CMC and RGEM are correct and the precip holds off until the midlevels start torching, this will be a brief non accumulating snow/sleet onset then very quickly over to all rain. The way this winter has gone, I don’t think any of us would be surprised if that’s actually the outcome
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