North and West Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Not saying it will be right but that is quite a significant jump south.I always preface this with I hope that I’m wrong, but why would you believe this after nothing has gone in the favor of snow this year? Until proven wrong, I don’t believe it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 went out skateboarding in white plains, freezing rain hit out of nowhere and it was a slippery session, lets hope something produces this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, North and West said: I always preface this with I hope that I’m wrong, but why would you believe this after nothing has gone in the favor of snow this year? Until proven wrong, I don’t believe it. . In most winters, there is something even if minor. So chances are something will surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 In case we miss out: This would go a long way in getting our January back toward Normal--real quick like: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: went out skateboarding in white plains, freezing rain hit out of nowhere and it was a slippery session, lets hope something produces this week at 38 degrees?! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Sleet in midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 In most winters, there is something even if minor. So chances are something will surprise. I agree with that. Just seems like that’s not even been there so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: at 38 degrees?! yeah it was weird, quickly turned to sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Sleet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 A rain/sleet mixture has moved into southern Westchester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: I wouldn't be that surprised if the NYC area and North of I84 got similar snow amounts though because it will depend on where the frontogensis is ahead of the mid level warming and where/if that dumping band sets up. Whatever falls will definitely have a better chance of sticking around north of I84. Thats not me predicting big snow for NYC area, I don't see anyone seeing more than 1-3 inches in this subforum in this setup due to the mid level warming. Yeah, wherever that "finger" of WAA snows is could get several inches. This is nowhere near the worst possible setup though as the high is located NE of us, the ones where the high is already out over the Atlantic are the worst as we turn SE immediately. In this case we may be able to hold a light 070-090 wind for awhile. The number 1 analog showing up is 12/13/2013 but its really not anywhere close to that event because the airmass is not as good and the high positioning is worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Rain/sleet falling here. Current temp 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Sleet! winner to NAM hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just before a rain/sleet mixture moved in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 A storm will bring rain to the region tonight into tomorrow. Some sleet is possible at the onset in New York City and Newark. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall is likely. A 1"-3" accumulation of snow is possible well north and west of Newark and New York City. There is a small chance that the rain could end as a period of snow in New York City tomorrow with a minor accumulation. New York City's long measurable snow drought will likely end on Wednesday. Support for a measurable snowfall during the January 25-27 period is now moderate-to-high on the ensembles. The National Blend of Models has increased to 0.8" during January 25. A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through much or all of the first week of February. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions could fade to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +19.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.098 today. On January 20 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.100 (RMM). The January 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.716 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.5° (7.8° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 The latest EPS forecast for NYC: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Temp 36 Lgt sleet falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 35* with drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Newman said: Holy shift Batman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Started as a rain/sleet mix lower Westchester by the Bronx border, quickly changed to all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah, wherever that "finger" of WAA snows is could get several inches. This is nowhere near the worst possible setup though as the high is located NE of us, the ones where the high is already out over the Atlantic are the worst as we turn SE immediately. In this case we may be able to hold a light 070-090 wind for awhile. The number 1 analog showing up is 12/13/2013 but its really not anywhere close to that event because the airmass is not as good and the high positioning is worse. I actually remember that storm, that seemed way colder than this one though as you said. I was actually in New Paltz at that time and it went from single digits with snow to 20s and sleet but no rain. I think the city went from like the teens to the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 99.5% sleet falling, with a couple wet flakes mixed in when it comes down harder. 33° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 24 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Holy shift Batman It unfortunately doesn't have any other model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Pingping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, gravitylover said: Pingping Better than drip drip imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Better than drip drip imo. Sorta but not really. I'm not as enamored with ice as I was a few decades ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 37 with rain/snow mix. nasty out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 All sleet, starting to mix more with big fat wet flakes when it comes down harder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Mostly snow w/ sleet mixed in temp 32 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Changed to all snow here. 32° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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