January 2023

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Gfs 1-3 for Wednesday now 

Models are deamplifying the storm when in the past they've made them more amplified at this range. 

I'm not saying it'll work out but that something to be mindful of 

[vegan_edible]

kinda hilarious imo that models show snow within 5 days for us and all of a sudden everyones like "it wont snow". i get it, but lets have a little faith here people. in white plains in december we definitely got an inch from that little event mid month, lets hope we can develop something this week. GFS seems like a reach but hey i wouldnt be mad if that was right 

[Winterweatherlover]

3 hours ago, snywx said:

Where are you located ?

Im in lower Westchester right near NYC so def not part of the HV but rooting for the HV to get a surprise tomorrow night. NAM looks good for the HV.  

[Winterweatherlover]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models are deamplifying the storm when in the past they've made them more amplified at this range. 

I'm not saying it'll work out but that something to be mindful of 

Storm 1 is trending east last minute which is not something we are used to seeing. For most of us it just means a 36 degree rain but wonder if it will have any affect on storm 2.   

[HeadInTheClouds]

Nam and Rgem. A few inches for mid HV and pretty robust amounts around I90. 

 

[snowman19]

Theme of this winter. NWS Upton has zero snow south of Orange County for tomorrow/Mon: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

[Stormlover74]

[HeadInTheClouds]

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

This is 10:1 which won't verify in this situation with marginal thermals. Best to use kuchera which would show lower ratios. 

[Winterweatherlover]

CMC- 0 inches for NYC Wed

GFS- 2.3 inches for NYC Wed 

Both models have it in the 50s later on in the storm. 

[Winterweatherlover]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Theme of this winter. NWS Upton has zero snow south of Orange County for tomorrow/Mon: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

Honestly based on latest guidance that might be underdone a bit but yea I get the theme in terms of where the gradient is.     

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

CMC- 0 inches for NYC Wed

GFS- 2.3 inches for NYC Wed 

Both models have it in the 50s later on in the storm. 

More front end

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

More front end

1-3 inches to 50 degree rain stinks but would at least be more interesting than anything we've seen this winter.

 

I'm still skeptical though that there is any meaningful snow on the front end.  

[snowman19]

1-3 inches to 50 degree rain stinks but would at least be more interesting than anything we've seen this winter.
 
I'm still skeptical though that there is any meaningful snow on the front end.  

The GFS is likely overdone for both events. That said I’m still confident in NYC seeing “something” Wednesday

[donsutherland1]

HREF for Monday:

[SnowGoose69]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The GFS is likely overdone for both events. That said I’m still confident in NYC seeing “something” Wednesday

 

Yup...we used to have a rule that with a SWFE type event if the GFS shows snow at 90 plus hours you can usually take it to the bank that barring some massive change in your air mass or track you'll see snow because it tends to be too warm in the BL with these things til inside 60...the CMC is almost always a BL torch on these so I am not shocked.  Overall this is a meh setup but once where 2 inches is probably possible

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Yup...we used to have a rule that with a SWFE type event if the GFS shows snow at 90 plus hours you can usually take it to the bank that barring some massive change in your air mass or track you'll see snow because it tends to be too warm in the BL with these things til inside 60...the CMC is almost always a BL torch on these so I am not shocked.  Overall this is a meh setup but once where 2 inches is probably possible

Unfortunately in addition to meh prior airmass it's also coming in with increasing SE winds. The south shore even if aloft is cold enough would probably be less than an hour of snow before the washout if even that. GFS if too warm at the surface shows it 34-36 degrees around the city as the precip comes in. Maybe if it's heavy it can briefly drop to 32 and accumulate but if it comes in as showery/broken up crap I doubt any snow would even accumulate. Up by I-84 it does get down to around freezing for a few hours before the surging warmth aloft shuts their snow down but it could be an advisory event for them. 

[snowman19]

HREF for Monday:

The HREF is probably the closest to reality. Rain to snow setups generally underperform in our area. Also, a very marginal airmass and those 10:1 ratio maps are going to be grossly overdone

[snowman19]

I’m kinda shocked Bernie Rayno isn’t doing videos on Wednesday. Usually he’s all over possible northeast snow events days in advance. I guess either he’s busy or unimpressed by it

[wdrag]

I'll leave it to you to debate the merits of the modeling and the forecast. Attached is the NWS ensemble chance of roughly 3+" of snow Wednesday and also this mornings 4AM NWS forecast which seems a touch conservative on the south edge from nw NJ to w CT. Their snow forecast for next day or two had considerable ensemble support to play this late Sunday-Monday event conservative.  For Wantage NJ, I'm thinking 1/2" grass-decks 5P-10P today and then 1.5-2" Monday, realizing we're fighting daylight hours snowfall at 31-33F temps. Pavement less both front and back end.  I'll try to add CoCoRaHs totals at 830A tomorrow and Tuesday.

 

[snowman19]

Looks like HM was right, the SSWE fell by the wayside. The SPV restrengthens again in February

[EasternLI]

Since I last posted on the stratosphere. Cross guidance trends have been unfavorable for getting it done. There's still warming ahead, but it looks increasingly clear to me like it will fall short of what we would need. Here's the latest gefs trends illustrating this. 

So what could that most likely mean. There's still some warming modeled. Here's the cross section of the 00z gfs as a guide. Note the strong winds high up in the stratosphere. Associated with the stronger than normal SPV currently. With weakening winds arriving at the time of the warming. Notice how the warming weakens the winds higher up, but this is pushing down the stronger wind into the troposphere. But the warming isn't going to be enough to finish the job. So what are we left with. I'd say most likely that means no help from this. As it actually acts to strengthen the vortex in the troposphere instead (+AO) by pushing the stronger winds down from above. With the SPV regaining strength again following this as hinted on latest guidance. Could happen later I suppose, but I really rather not by then as the hour is getting extremely late. Hopefully this is at least a little helpful for those more curious about the nuance of it. Ideally, a stronger event would push the reversal of winds down through the atmosphere into the troposphere. Which is how the arctic blocking can emerge. That looks very unlikely today.

[snowman19]

Since I last posted on the stratosphere. Cross guidance trends have been unfavorable for getting it done. There's still warming ahead, but it looks increasingly clear to me like it will fall short of what we would need. Here's the latest gefs trends illustrating this. 

So what could that most likely mean. There's still some warming modeled. Here's the cross section of the 00z gfs as a guide. Note the strong winds high up in the stratosphere. Associated with the stronger than normal SPV currently. With weakening winds arriving at the time of the warming. Notice how the warming weakens the winds higher up, but this is pushing down the stronger wind into the troposphere. But the warming isn't going to be enough to finish the job. So what are we left with. I'd say most likely that means no help from this. As it actually acts to strengthen the vortex in the troposphere instead (+AO) by pushing the stronger winds down from above. With the SPV regaining strength again following this as hinted on latest guidance. Could happen later I suppose, but I really rather not by then as the hour is getting extremely late. Hopefully this is at least a little helpful for those more curious about the nuance of it. Ideally, a stronger event would push the reversal of winds down through the atmosphere into the troposphere. Which is how the arctic blocking can emerge. That looks very unlikely today.

It looks like this failed attempt will actually cause a ++NAO in February as well with the TPV over Greenland

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like this failed attempt will actually cause a ++NAO in February as well with the TPV over Greenland

Looks that way. Yeah. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     36degs.(32/42) or +3.

Month to date is     43.6[+9.7].          Should be      41.5[+7.8] by the 30th.

Reached 42 here yesterday at midnight (41 daytime).

Today:     42-44, wind s. to e., cloudy-Rain by 5pm till tomorrow AM,40.

38*(60%RH) here at 6am.      39* at 7am.      40* at 9am.      42* at 10am.        43* at Noon.        41* at 3pm.

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like this failed attempt will actually cause a ++NAO in February as well with the TPV over Greenland

Can we get through January without canceling the whole month of February. 

We know how fickle long range forecasts are.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy and mild. Rain will arrive late in the day. North and west of New York City and Newark, set snow and sleet will arrive. High temperatures will reach the lower 40s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 42°

Newark: 44°

Philadelphia: 43°

Rain and wet snow will end tomorrow. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.1°; 15-Year: 39.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.5°

[donsutherland1]

Today will be New York City's (Central Park) 319th consecutive day without measurable snow. That will be tied for the 3rd longest such stretch. However, there is growing ensemble support indicating that this stretch will likely end on January 25th. There remains a low probability that it could end tomorrow if some of the colder guidance is accurate.

 

[EasternLI]

Quickly piggybacking off the strat post. So then if you look at what the gefs is doing in the long range. It makes sense that you would see a strong vortex near Greenland. Also, the troposphere had wanted to push ridging poleward due to previous events. That would have been the phase 3 composite I posted days ago. But you can also see now, that gets "blown away" by the strong winds descending from above. Dynamics in the stratosphere are consistent with this solution during this time. It's a nice example of how different factors work together. Even if it isn’t in the way we would hope. 

[snowman19]

Today will be New York City's (Central Park) 319th consecutive day without measurable snow. That will be tied for the 3rd longest such stretch. However, there is growing ensemble support indicating that this stretch will likely end on January 25th. There remains a low probability that it could end tomorrow if some of the colder guidance is accurate.
 

Tomorrow is very doubtful but definitely growing evidence the NYC snow drought ends Wednesday morning

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Quickly piggybacking off the strat post. So then if you look at what the gefs is doing in the long range. It makes sense that you would see a strong vortex near Greenland. Also, the troposphere had wanted to push ridging poleward due to previous events. That would have been the phase 3 composite I posted days ago. But you can also see now, that gets "blown away" by the strong winds descending from above. Dynamics in the stratosphere are consistent with this solution during this time. It's a nice example of how different factors work together. Even if it isn’t in the way we would hope. 

Do we need an SSWE for blocking? Thought Feb 21 and this December were not SSWE driven.