snowman19 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 The 12z models so far are cutting back the front end snow for Wednesday in the metro area and have gotten warmer. The ICON has no front end south of Orange County and the CMC and GFS cut back notably with a bigger midlevel warm push and the primary low going to Lake Erie or Ohio (CMC). Lets see what the Ukie and Euro do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The 12z models so far are cutting back the front end snow for Wednesday in the metro area and have gotten warmer. The ICON has no front end south of Orange County and the CMC and GFS cut back notably with a bigger midlevel warm push and the primary low going to Lake Erie or Ohio (CMC). Lets see what the Ukie and Euro do Cmc shifted slightly south and gfs also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/anniversary-of-the-great-cold-wave-of-january-21-1985.html Anniversary of the Great Cold Wave of January 21, 1985 By: Christopher C. Burt, 7:57 PM GMT on January 21, 2014 Anniversary of the Great Cold Wave of January 21, 1985 Another arctic outbreak is heading into the eastern third of the nation today. Temperatures will be frigid (as witnessed by Embarass, Minnesota which bottomed out at -37° this morning (January 21st). But the current cold wave pales in comparison to what was happening at this time back in 1985. Here is a summary of that historic event.http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/chrisburt/12185map.jpgSurface conditions for the eastern U.S. at 7 a.m. January 21, 1985. The coldest morning in the Southeast since February 1899. NWS/NOAA Daily Weather Map. In what was the most intense cold wave to invade the Southeast of the U.S. since the great arctic outbreak of February 1899 temperatures on January 21, 1985 fell below zero as far south as southern Alabama and Georgia. All-time cold records were set at many significant sites from Chicago to Charleston, South Carolina. Here is a selection of some of the sites, with long historical periods of record, where all-time cold records were set:http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/chrisburt/serecords.jpgList of significant sites with long POR’s that broke their official all-time cold records during the January 20-22, 1985 cold wave. The cities with the dashed lines under the temperatures are places that recorded even colder temperatures during what was likely THE worst cold wave ever experienced in the Southeast: that of February 8, 1835. The temperature on that date fell to -10° at Athens, GA, -4° at Augusta, GA, 0° at Savannah, GA, and 1° at Charleston, SC. Data from Weather Underground Record Extremes archive. In addition to the cities above several state records for cold were also broken: -34° NORTH CAROLINA, Mt. Mitchell on January 21 -30° VIRGINIA, Mt. Lake Biology Station on January 21, 1985 -19° SOUTH CAROLINA, Caesars Head on January 21 Actually, a temperature of -22° was observed at Hogback Mountain, South Carolina as well. It is not clear to me why this figure has apparently not been accepted as the ‘official’ state record (I inquired about this to the South Carolina State Climatology Office but never received a response).http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/chrisburt/hoback.jpg In a way somewhat similar to the cold wave earlier this month, the January 20-22, 1985 event passed quickly across the region so that record low maximum temperatures were a matter of just where you were when the core of the cold air passed. We can see this clearly in the map below of max and min temps published at 7 a.m. ET on January 21, 1985. The maximum temperatures indicated were for the 12-hour period ending at 7 p.m. on January 20th and the minimum temperatures are for the 12-hour period ending at 7 a.m. on January 21st. Note the amazing ‘high’ temperature of -7° at Nashville on the 20th. However, the official daily max for that day in Nashville was actually 7° which occurred just after midnight on the 20th (the record low max for Nashville is 2° on January 12, 1918).http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/chrisburt/1985map.jpg One can only imagine the frenzy that would engulf popular media should a cold wave of this magnitude occur again! ‘The Uber-Polar Vortex Attack!!’ Christopher C. Burt Weather Historian It will. May be a couple of degrees warmer cause of global warming but it will happen again. Lol and when it does will warm up and rain then get frigid again 80s style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Asking the board, does this image make sense? Or is this just indictive of model spread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Asking the board, does this image make sense? Or is this just indictive of model spread?In terms of? I’m seeing an Aleutian ridge, -PNA and a very positive NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: In terms of? I’m seeing an Aleutian ridge, -PNA and a very positive NAO I mean would think there would be a massive ridge somewhere in the US. Can the SE ridge be that flat in the east with an RNA? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 probably not going to break the record 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 I mean would think there would be a massive ridge somewhere in the US. Can the SE ridge be that flat in the east with an RNA?Model bias of being too weak with the SE ridge in the long range, then it corrects much stronger as we get closer in time. Same issue that’s been going on for years with the models underestimating the SE ridge/WAR in the extended only to correct stronger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Hey guys it looks like we go RNA/SE ridge in February as expected. That being said if you want snow this is not all bad. The last two patterns this winter failed for the most part, so why not try our luck with a massive SE ridge. The below happened in the middle of historic warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Model bias of being too weak with the SE ridge in the long range, then it corrects much stronger as we get closer in time. Same issue that’s been going on for years with the models underestimating the SE ridge/WAR in the extended only to correct stronger Hope they spend a little money and fix that one day. It's annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Model bias of being too weak with the SE ridge in the long range, then it corrects much stronger as we get closer in time. Same issue that’s been going on for years with the models underestimating the SE ridge/WAR in the extended only to correct stronger Quite possible but this can work if the epo goes negative 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Quite possible but this can work if the epo goes negative Ensembles shift the cold to our side of the globe. It wouldn't take much to break more favorable for us with strong gradient pattern possible. I would want to be further north though. SNE & points north could do really well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: probably not going to break the record Yup. Going to get something Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: In terms of? I’m seeing an Aleutian ridge, -PNA and a very positive NAO We had a severely negative AO, a negative NAO and even a decent PNA for a time in December and it produced squat. Also see Tip's post in the New England subforum about how teleconnections don't play the same role as they did in the past in today's CC era. The TPV will be coming south with the cold shifting to our side of the globe. Whether that'll be enough to counter the SE ridging remains to be seen. Additionally the polar vortex is going to be taking a beating over the next 10+ days. That'll introduce uncertainty to the pattern. We're already seeing models deamplify the 25/26 system. Could turn into a SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 We had a severely negative AO, a negative NAO and even a decent PNA for a time in December and it produced squat. Also see Tip's post in the New England subforum about how teleconnections don't play the same role as they did in the past in today's CC era. The TPV will be coming south with the cold shifting to our side of the globe. Whether that'll be enough to counter the SE ridging remains to be seen. Additionally the polar vortex is going to be taking a beating over the next 10+ days. That'll introduce uncertainty to the pattern. We're already seeing models deamplify the 25/26 system. Could turn into a SWFEWednesday is not going to turn into a snowstorm for the area. While I believe NYC sees enough measurable snow to not break the 1/29/73 record, that one is going over to rain after whatever brief front-end there is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Another great reference to the historic 1985 cold wave http://www.markvoganweather.com/2015/12/06/a-look-back-super-arctic-outbreak-january-1985/ Great article! Looks like 850's reached the holy grail of Arctic cold of -40, and based on that 850 map dropped to -42 / -43 over northern MN. Also, classic surface high pressure stretching from the high Arctic down to the gulf coast. Not to mention the polar vortex and insanely low HTS over the lakes. Just don't seem to make them like this anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 35 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. Going to get something Wednesday Maybe an inch of slop that quickly gets washed away by rain. 12z CMC and GFS say it won't even be that much. The models also give us some rain at the end of the month, the time period in which we were supposed to be in a cold window. All you can do is laugh at this point. This winter is that bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Maybe an inch of slop that quickly gets washed away by rain. 12z CMC and GFS say it won't even be that much. The models also give us some rain at the end of the month, the time period in which we were supposed to be in a cold window. All you can do is laugh at this point. This winter is that bad. Only going to take .10" to spoil the record so I hope they measure properly. After this dismal stretch I'd kind of like to make it worth while and break the record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Maybe an inch of slop that quickly gets washed away by rain. 12z CMC and GFS say it won't even be that much. The models also give us some rain at the end of the month, the time period in which we were supposed to be in a cold window. All you can do is laugh at this point. This winter is that bad. Oh def…no sugar coating it. Just saying that measurable should “happen Wednesday” for most. But it won’t be anything special. Pattern going forward looks hostile. Only positive is that the tpv looks to stay in Canada. No signs of pac puke taken over the country 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Maybe an inch of slop that quickly gets washed away by rain. 12z CMC and GFS say it won't even be that much. The models also give us some rain at the end of the month, the time period in which we were supposed to be in a cold window. All you can do is laugh at this point. This winter is that bad. The hyped “cold” period for the end of this month has turned into just a week (1/24-1/31) of near normal temperatures 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 This would be a kick to the Giblets 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: This would be a kick to the Giblets At least it is the GFS and shows a suppressed system. Things have been correcting more north - too north and west in fact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This would be a kick to the Giblets Good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 This would be a kick to the GibletsDon’t worry, it’s the operational GFS. You can rest assured nothing even close to that will verify 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 55 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Wednesday is not going to turn into a snowstorm for the area. While I believe NYC sees enough measurable snow to not break the 1/29/73 record, that one is going over to rain after whatever brief front-end there is I never said Wednesday is going to turn into a snowstorm. I said models are suggesting it could become a SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 42 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This would be a kick to the Giblets Exactly where we'd want it 288 hours out. Now the question is does it end up not happening, as a coastal snowstorm, or a great lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 The models not trending in the right direction for Wednesday. I wouldn't be surprised if there is no accumulation south of the Tappan Zee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Might actually have a better chance of a flip to snow on the backend of storm 1 in say Westchester and Rockland than any meaningful frozen precip from storm 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 12z Euro has hardly any front end snow for us. Maybe a slushy coating on colder surfaces at best, and then heavy rain wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Wednesday is not going to turn into a snowstorm for the area. While I believe NYC sees enough measurable snow to not break the 1/29/73 record, that one is going over to rain after whatever brief front-end there is NYC is a lost cause, I think you MIGHT get an inch from the two storms combined in sloatsburg,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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