Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: yeah, but that could also be OTS. That’s the failure in that logic. And if the southeast ridge really is that strong, then we’re done for snow here. No reason to track anything. That’s the failure in the whole attitude. Barring a miracle hard to see much to get excited about-we are locked into this pattern and the lack of cold air is '01-02 worthy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 ACCUWEATHER has torched and tossed February and March out for the EC. Cold spring coming boys. Based on NO SSWE and wrong way MJO. Meanwhile patterns continue to gestate in JB for Happier Times. My 55" entry to the snow contest has melted. My Ten-Day-Winter manifestation is alive and well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: this isn’t a bad year. This is historic, and this is climate change. A part of me almost hopes that the city gets totally shut out so we can stop the bs with the bad year. This is what New York City winters look like more and more going forward This is not the only year this has happened. Yes it is warmer. It's a bad year and we will have great winters again. CC did not just start with 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 people have to realize that climate change is also responsible for winters like 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2017-18, and 2020-21 just makes the bad periods worse and the good periods better 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 16 minutes ago, CIK62 said: ACCUWEATHER has torched and tossed February and March out for the EC. Cold spring coming boys. Based on NO SSWE and wrong way MJO. Meanwhile patterns continue to gestate in JB for Happier Times. My 55" entry to the snow contest has melted. My Ten-Day-Winter manifestation is alive and well. 10 day winter? I think most would be happy with that at this point. So far it's been a 4 day dry/cold arctic blast around xmas. Almost no cold arctic instrusions other than that and none look to be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Didn’t even consider this, but a SSWE could possibly work to re-enforce the canonical La Niña pattern, once the MJO starts constructively interfering with the Niña standing wave late this month and February, a SSW may actually cool the tropical tropopause and intensify the convection and the forcing. Maybe rooting for a SSW right now is not such a good thing right now….. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 this isn’t a bad year. This is historic, and this is climate change. A part of me almost hopes that the city gets totally shut out so we can stop the bs with the bad year. This is what New York City winters look like more and more going forwardI think that’s hyperbole. Please, I am not disagreeing with you or discounting AGW or denying it; I’m just exhausted by every “bad” thing that happens is CC. I am just as worried and annoyed by it by all of us here.I’m of the opinion that we have to both learn to live with it, use technology now and in the future to help mitigate it, and realize it’s a trade-off from our tech-heavy lifestyle and longer lifespans.It just feels like now when we’re having a lousy year, we all act like I did when I was in the third and fourth grades and it just never wanted to snow. Maybe it will help when the machines take over and we’re subjugated by them.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 ACCUWEATHER has torched and tossed February and March out for the EC. Cold spring coming boys. Based on NO SSWE and wrong way MJO. Meanwhile patterns continue to gestate in JB for Happier Times. My 55" entry to the snow contest has melted. My Ten-Day-Winter manifestation is alive and well.If HM isn’t interested in this possible SSW, then it’s probably nothing to get excited about. He really knows his stuff with the stratosphere, in fact, back in February, 2018, he was one of the 1st mets to really sound the alarms that the SSW and that the blocking period that was going to follow in March was going to be historic. A lot of mets were laughing it off and saying too little too late and that it was going to be useless in alternating the pattern. We all know how that turned out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 33 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Didn’t even consider this, but a SSWE could possibly work to re-enforce the canonical La Niña pattern, once the MJO starts constructively interfering with the Niña standing wave late this month and February, a SSW may actually cool the tropical tropopause and intensify the convection and the forcing. Maybe rooting for a SSW right now is not such a good thing right now….. There are probably many things that we don't consider. This is why I take writing off February and March with a grain of salt. Not saying they won't be mild with lack of snow, just saying nobody really knows this far out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Topped out at 53 here today, currently it's 46. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Topped out at 53 here today, currently it's 46. ayo white plains in the building! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Didn’t even consider this, but a SSWE could possibly work to re-enforce the canonical La Niña pattern, once the MJO starts constructively interfering with the Niña standing wave late this month and February, a SSW may actually cool the tropical tropopause and intensify the convection and the forcing. Maybe rooting for a SSW right now is not such a good thing right now….. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, North and West said: I think that’s hyperbole. Please, I am not disagreeing with you or discounting AGW or denying it; I’m just exhausted by every “bad” thing that happens is CC. I am just as worried and annoyed by it by all of us here. I’m of the opinion that we have to both learn to live with it, use technology now and in the future to help mitigate it, and realize it’s a trade-off from our tech-heavy lifestyle and longer lifespans. It just feels like now when we’re having a lousy year, we all act like I did when I was in the third and fourth grades and it just never wanted to snow. Maybe it will help when the machines take over and we’re subjugated by them. . I’ll just say this… We are comparing this a lot to 97/98 That was saved at the end from a shut out. What is the wintertime temperature in now versus late 90s? It’s a huge difference. I hope something happens but I wouldn’t bank on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 this type of look is at day 8 now, after the midweek threat 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Just saw that lol Eric says he thinks it’s unlikely at the moment. I think the whole SSWE having a big effect (i.e. 2018) or a major SSW happening is unlikely. HM would be all over it right now like white on rice if it had a good chance of happening just like he was back in February, 2018. He is totally unimpressed by it right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 25 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I’ll just say this… We are comparing this a lot to 97/98 That was saved at the end from a shut out. What is the wintertime temperature in now versus late 90s? It’s a huge difference. I hope something happens but I wouldn’t bank on it Don posted it earlier to date temps. 94/95 is another one storm wonder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Don posted it earlier to date temps. 94/95 is another one storm wonder. I was looking at that earlier, that shows the other years that we didn’t have ice on the lakes and ponds at this point, this year isn’t an anomaly in that regard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 48 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This is what I've been trying to communicate about that situation. That is what made it interesting for me. Just having the possibility of something like that. Requires pulling a rabbit out of a hat though lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 GEFS looking better for next week. Seems colder. GEFS kinda suck too though so we'll see if there's a trend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 This really is a pretty reasonable match everywhere with everything on 18z GEFS. We're pulling for the Greenland ridge here. To work with whatever happens with the strat. So get out the lucky rabbit foot, four leaf clover, lucky underwear, plus whatever else you might have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: I was looking at that earlier, that shows the other years that we didn’t have ice on the lakes and ponds at this point, this year isn’t an anomaly in that regard. Just curious, if we were to look at NYC's best snow /cold seasons based on the same scoring, what does the top ten look like for that? Hoping its just the bottom ten scores of whatever data was used to create the above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Rain will arrive tomorrow and continue into Friday. A general 0.50"-1.00" appears likely in the region. Readings will remain above normal. The lengthening measurable snow drought will persist in New York City and Philadelphia through at least the weekend. The next period of interest could be January 22-24. Ensemble support for measurable snow had recently increased to moderate levels. However, the National Blend of Models shows no accumulations for New York City. A second storm could also impact the region a few days later. A cooler pattern will likely develop during the last 5-7 days of January. The duration of this cooler period remains uncertain. Should ridging develop in the East, a warming trend could develop during in early February following a cool start to the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions could fade to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +6.36 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.695 today. On January 16 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.594 (RMM). The January 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.467 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.8° (7.1° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 21 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Just curious, if we were to look at NYC's best snow /cold seasons based on the same scoring, what does the top ten look like for that? Hoping its just the bottom ten scores of whatever data was used to create the above? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: I was looking at that earlier, that shows the other years that we didn’t have ice on the lakes and ponds at this point, this year isn’t an anomaly in that regard. Lake Placid…unfrozen. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Lake Placid…unfrozen. Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 26 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Lake Placid…unfrozen. This is remarkable. Lake Placid is usually an icebox in mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Icon still going with the offshore low thing for Sunday night/Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 So far tonight it looks like ICON/NAM vs RGEM/GFS. UK and EC will be tonight's tie breaker. At least it feels like we have a shot this time. But being stuck rooting for a wave to be flatter is never a good position to be in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 GFS queueing up a parade of rain storms per usual. At least it hasn't fooled us with too many fantasy blizzards so far this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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