Winterweatherlover Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 41 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Good luck getting that to work out without much cold air in place. The other models have rain, which makes more sense considering the pattern and what has been going on. 12z Euro also has another big rainstorm wednesday next week. This pattern is extremely ugly with rainstorm after rainstorm likely. The other models have an inland low so of course they'd be rain. It would absolutely be threading the needle but if the Euro depicition of a sub 1000 low tracking off shore is right cold air shouldn't be a big problem once the storm is cranking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 But the Ensemble says 50/50 on < 1" for the next 15 days. Remember, since NYC is at 0", every run of every model that has shown measurable snow---has been wrong! Probably 200 different runs have shown snow since Dec. 01. There have been more than 700 runs of the main models since then. Any one keeping track of which model showed snow the fewest times? Lol. 30 miles and 0". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Eps is lovely going forward 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Keeping an eye on the strat once again. It's heating up for the end of the month again on guidance recently. Gefs are getting pretty toasty now. Eps weeklies have a cluster that pulls it off again on today's edition. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 Picking on the GEFS, or cherry picking? It seems to me the GEFS and GFS are not handling extent of measurable wintry weather (snow-ice) very well. For the Sunday (15th) morning 4AM forecast for e MA, the 00z/15 GEFS had a paltry less than 20% 48 hour chc of 3" se MA, almost nil ne MA. Most of coastal MA has had 3-4.5". Graphic added since it impacts early Sunday WFO issuances. Even 2-3" fell back in n central and nw MA. CoCoRaHs map will update tomorrow at 830AM with whatever two days we have) Also added a graphic for this Thursday evening from the 12z/16 GEFS cycle which has dominant qpf of rain across MA. I highly doubt that rain will be predominant at 00z-06z/20. 12z-18z/16 ops from EC/RDPS/NAM all ice or snow there and NAM/RDPS are tending to hold freezing temps or sink them slightly south Thursday evening into extreme nw NJ and the Poconos. This could be significant since ice could be predominant Catskills, higher Pocs and maybe even extreme nw NJ above 1000 feet. So let's see if the Canadian - EC - NAM end up too cold vs the GFS-GEFS. Graphic #2 added. These advance challenges are important to help balance our approach into the coming ptype... do we accept one model as gospel, or probably better, mentally blend (WFO's have digital blending techniques to assist their predictions). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Today was another mostly sunny day. New York City's measurable snow drought increased to 313 consecutive days (4th longest). 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 An offshore storm brought a widespread 2"-4" snowfall to eastern New England. Some of the heavier snowfall worked its way into Boston where 3.5" of snow fell. That was Boston's biggest snowstorm since February 25, 2022 when the city was blanketed by 8.5". The last time Boston saw 3" or more snow while New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, DC had none was February 9, 2021 when Boston picked up 3.0" of snow. The last such storm to occur in January took place on January 16, 2013 when Boston saw 3.2" of snow. The lengthening measurable snow drought will persist in New York City and Philadelphia for at least several more days. The next period of interest could be January 22-24. Ensemble support for measurable snow has recently increased to low-to-moderate levels. Milder weather will then return and persist through much of the week before cooler air returns near the end of the month. The duration of any cooler period is uncertain, as some of the extended guidance returns ridging to the East near the end of January or very early in February. If so, a warming trend could develop during early February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions could fade to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +3.82 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.785 today. On January 14 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.711 (RMM). The January 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.945 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.8° (7.1° above normal). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 EPS ensemble probability for select snowfall amounts for NYC: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 At least I got to experience some tropical downpours this past week in the Caribbean. Same boring pattern here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 5 hours ago, EasternLI said: Keeping an eye on the strat once again. It's heating up for the end of the month again on guidance recently. Gefs are getting pretty toasty now. Eps weeklies have a cluster that pulls it off again on today's edition. Things are stating to look better as we head into late January into February 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Evidence growing for March to be the “real” winter month here….Looks like the MJO will propagate out into the Pacific come early March, based on the Paul Roundy plots Eric shows, the possible SSW event in early February (takes awhile/weeks with the lag to actually have an effect) couples with the troposphere, cold rebuilds in Canada, SPV weakens greatly, -NAO/-AO, also, possible jet extension and +PNA. The caveats….it will be March, so March “cold”, and March climo, also sun angle and length of day will be working against us, so keep expectations tempered, but I think it ends up being the most wintry (cold/snow) month of 22-23. Will have to re-examine as we get closer. Still very strongly believe February is canonical La Niña/-PNA/SE ridge/flat Aleutian ridge and well above normal temps, well below normal snow 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Evidence growing for March to be the “real” winter month here….Looks like the MJO will propagate out into the Pacific come early March, based on the Paul Roundy plots Eric shows, the possible SSW event in early February (takes awhile/weeks with the lag to actually have an effect) couples with the troposphere, cold rebuilds in Canada, SPV weakens greatly, -NAO/-AO, also, possible jet extension and +PNA. The caveats….it will be March, so March “cold”, and March climo, also sun angle and length of day will be working against us, so keep expectations tempered, but I think it ends up being the most wintry (cold/snow) month of 22-23. Will have to re-examine as we get closer. Still very strongly believe February is canonical La Niña/-PNA/SE ridge/flat Aleutian ridge and well above normal temps, well below normal snow Well, if it does turn out that way, and we will see - I hope March is cold enough so the snow doesn’t just melt right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I am still skeptical on any meaningful chances for snow in the NYC metro for at least the rest of January if not the winter. This also doesn't really sound all that positive from DT (WxRisk). As always there is a chance the pattern can change for the better so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 19 hours ago, snowman19 said: Even where I am up in Sloatsburg there has yet to be a plowable snowfall. It’s crazy to say that on 1/16. The last time plows were needed up here was the minor event we had on Sat, March 12th, 2022. Over 10 months ago….insane on the plus side the models are doing better because this winter is so futile even they can see it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 3 hours ago, Rtd208 said: I am still skeptical on any meaningful chances for snow in the NYC metro for at least the rest of January if not the winter. This also doesn't really sound all that positive from DT (WxRisk). As always there is a chance the pattern can change for the better so we'll see. Good This mean it will snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Good This mean it will snow Likely inland. Where we live probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 7 hours ago, snowman19 said: Evidence growing for March to be the “real” winter month here….Looks like the MJO will propagate out into the Pacific come early March, based on the Paul Roundy plots Eric shows, the possible SSW event in early February (takes awhile/weeks with the lag to actually have an effect) couples with the troposphere, cold rebuilds in Canada, SPV weakens greatly, -NAO/-AO, also, possible jet extension and +PNA. The caveats….it will be March, so March “cold”, and March climo, also sun angle and length of day will be working against us, so keep expectations tempered, but I think it ends up being the most wintry (cold/snow) month of 22-23. Will have to re-examine as we get closer. Still very strongly believe February is canonical La Niña/-PNA/SE ridge/flat Aleutian ridge and well above normal temps, well below normal snow Ugh I thought you said previously no SSW this year? Does this look to be on the level of what we got in 2018? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: EPS ensemble probability for select snowfall amounts for NYC: The forecasts I looked at stated mixed precip inland and rain near the coast, Don....looks like the same thing we had in December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Evidence growing for March to be the “real” winter month here….Looks like the MJO will propagate out into the Pacific come early March, based on the Paul Roundy plots Eric shows, the possible SSW event in early February (takes awhile/weeks with the lag to actually have an effect) couples with the troposphere, cold rebuilds in Canada, SPV weakens greatly, -NAO/-AO, also, possible jet extension and +PNA. The caveats….it will be March, so March “cold”, and March climo, also sun angle and length of day will be working against us, so keep expectations tempered, but I think it ends up being the most wintry (cold/snow) month of 22-23. Will have to re-examine as we get closer. Still very strongly believe February is canonical La Niña/-PNA/SE ridge/flat Aleutian ridge and well above normal temps, well below normal snow That’s the worst. My yard and the kids’ baseball fields will be muddy. Why bother at that point.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Morning thoughts… It will variably cloudy and mild. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 47° Philadelphia: 46° Temperatures will average above normal during the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.1°; 15-Year: 39.8° Newark: 30-Year: 39.6°; 15-Year: 40.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.6° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: EPS ensemble probability for select snowfall amounts for NYC: Most of the individual ensemble members were changeover or rain cases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 NYC's latest snow season futility ranking to date: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: Exactly. Best look is day 7+ tho we could still sneak into something over the next week behind one of the waves to our W as the boundary is dragged S and a quick wave follows behind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: Evidence growing for March to be the “real” winter month here….Looks like the MJO will propagate out into the Pacific come early March, based on the Paul Roundy plots Eric shows, the possible SSW event in early February (takes awhile/weeks with the lag to actually have an effect) couples with the troposphere, cold rebuilds in Canada, SPV weakens greatly, -NAO/-AO, also, possible jet extension and +PNA. The caveats….it will be March, so March “cold”, and March climo, also sun angle and length of day will be working against us, so keep expectations tempered, but I think it ends up being the most wintry (cold/snow) month of 22-23. Will have to re-examine as we get closer. Still very strongly believe February is canonical La Niña/-PNA/SE ridge/flat Aleutian ridge and well above normal temps, well below normal snow This final point of his in that thread is the one condition that I'm most interested in monitoring moving forward. In that if you can set up the Blocking at the same time of a legitimate ssw, that changes the equation of when you can possibly see effects to something much sooner instead. I've mentioned this before either last month or back in November as a potential point of interest this season. I'm still curious to see if we can achieve that. It's not likely by any means currently, but it's very much possible with this state of affairs ahead. So I'm interested to see how this goes and if we can pull that off concurrently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Best look is day 7+ tho we could still sneak into something over the next week behind one of the waves to our W as the boundary is dragged S and a quick wave follows behind. We’ve had 3 months of “ best looks” and “great patterns” day 7+ and here we sit on 1/17 and NYC has a trace of snow. Total 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Ugh I thought you said previously no SSW this year? Does this look to be on the level of what we got in 2018? *Possible SSW. Niña/+QBO/high solar is the least likely combo for a SSW. That said it’s not impossible. I’m still not 100% sold one definitely happens but it looks possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Ugh I thought you said previously no SSW this year? Does this look to be on the level of what we got in 2018? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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