January 2023

[snowman19]

Maybe, however I am looking at it as getting CPK a half an inch of snow. This is the best chance since December and probably not again until March. I think a half inch at CPK is definitely doable.
The good thing about these setups are the multiple waves, which increases the chance for confluence. Just need one to strengthen as it moves east with a WEAK follow up wave.
Not looking for 93/94, just half an inch for CPK.

Yea, February looks like a lost cause. It is way, way too far out to even think seriously about yet, but there is a possibility that early March might become favorable for wintry weather again. Depends on if the MJO can actually propagate out into the Pacific and how fast the cold can build back up in Canada and the CONUS. Just keep in mind that we will obviously be fighting March climo/length of day/sun angle at that point and it will be March “cold”, but I suppose there is possibly a window in early March for “something”. Maybe

[Winterweatherlover]

Looks like some wintry weather may return to the interior parts of the subforum this week. The coast just seems such a lost cause unless the Euro is magically right with a coastal next Sunday (and even that looks very borderline cold enough for the coast).   

[lee59]

How can write off the entire month of February when it is January 16th.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

How can write off the entire month of February when it is January 16th.

Nina Climo is typically warm for Feb around here...

[WX-PA]

11 minutes ago, lee59 said:

How can write off the entire month of February when it is January 16th.

Total nonsense..Weather 2 to 3 weeks in advance is hard to forecast. I mean we have people here who think they can figure out specific storm systems and patterns 6 weeks in advance. Some try it as a hobby and some are trolls.The person who said February is shot is the same person who won't be around if we get into a snowy cold pattern in a few weeks, trust me on that.

[MJO812]

JB thinks it will finally snow on the east coast next week

 

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, lee59 said:

How can write off the entire month of February when it is January 16th.

It's foolish

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

JB thinks it will finally snow on the east coast next week

 

It just snowed on the east coast

[donsutherland1]

39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Nina Climo is typically warm for Feb around here...

There can be cases where things evolve just right to allow for significant snowfall. For NYC, since 1950, the following La Niña winters saw February snowfalls of 6.0" or above:

1974: 6.0"
1996: 7.5", 10.7"
2006: 26.9"
2008: 6.0"

 

 

[snowman19]

JB thinks it will finally snow on the east coast next week
 

That’s the kiss of death

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

JB thinks it will finally snow on the east coast next week

 

[EastonSN+]

All winter, as is typical in a la Nina, the northern stream low has taken over and has been dominant which is what really hurt December.

Just using as an example see below, IF IF we can somehow get the southern low to dominate if just once....if the pattern is not broken in the below image the low over Michigan will strengthen. I HOPE this changes.

[CIK62]

Chances were better in December.

The Bus Doesn't Stop Here Anymore.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

43 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

All winter, as is typical in a la Nina, the northern stream low has taken over and has been dominant which is what really hurt December.

Just using as an example see below, IF IF we can somehow get the southern low to dominate if just once....if the pattern is not broken in the below image the low over Michigan will strengthen. I HOPE this changes.

This map is in the fantasy range but one major problem has been and will probably continue to be that there's no high latitude blocking which means there'a also no 50/50 or confluence to lock in a cold air mass. 

WX/PT

[snowman19]

Chances were better in December.
The Bus Doesn't Stop Here Anymore.

But were the chances actually that much better in December? The only thing it had going for it was the west-based -NAO block and the -AO. Other than that, the SE ridge/WAR kept verifying stronger than the long range was showing and you had an extremely negative PNA which ruined it. The -EPO was basically useless too, all it did was supply a 4 day shot of arctic. There was a met in the NE forum who kept warning that the pattern wasn’t as good as everyone thought and he was ignored. Turns out he was 100% right

[Winterweatherlover]

ECM has now shown a coastal storm 4 straight runs for next Sunday-Monday timeframe. Obviously I don't trust anything this far out but this is the best look we've had in a while from the best model. 

[snowman19]

This map is in the fantasy range but one major problem has been and will probably continue to be that there's no high latitude blocking which means there'a also no 50/50 or confluence to lock in a cold air mass. 
WX/PT

The Euro has been showing phantom 50/50 lows that disappear. Last week as an example, when it had the 50/50 low mirage for Thursday and a snowstorm for a few runs and it turned into 50 degrees and rain. Until a legit 50/50 low shows up or a -NAO, I doubt any major coastal snowstorm

[winterwx21]

50 degrees here right now. 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

ECM has now shown a coastal storm 4 straight runs for next Sunday-Monday timeframe. Obviously I don't trust anything this far out but this is the best look we've had in a while from the best model. 

Ensembles sure look good going forward.  We just have to be on the right side of the boundary. 

[winterwx21]

13 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

ECM has now shown a coastal storm 4 straight runs for next Sunday-Monday timeframe. Obviously I don't trust anything this far out but this is the best look we've had in a while from the best model. 

Good luck getting that to work out without much cold air in place. The other models have rain, which makes more sense considering the pattern and what has been going on. 12z Euro also has another big rainstorm wednesday next week. This pattern is extremely ugly with rainstorm after rainstorm likely. 

[tristateweatherFB]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Good luck getting that to work out without much cold air in place. The other models have rain, which makes more sense considering the pattern and what has been going on. 12z Euro also has another big rainstorm wednesday next week. This pattern is extremely ugly with rainstorm after rainstorm likely. 

If you get the preceeding storm to become the 50/50 that supplies the cold Air we will be in business

I lurk here and see some of the posts.  It’s mid January.  Yes the winter has stunk so far but we have two more months to cash in.  

[brooklynwx99]

hopefully this is correct. this would be good down here near NYC

we finally look to have all of the cold air on our side of the globe, and the TPV itself is in a nice spot, potentially forcing confluence over the 50/50 region. would certainly be active with lots of HP over the top

this isn't fantasy, either. the TPV gets displaced from Greenland around day 7

[vegan_edible]

euro is looking strong for a week from today. honestly, the euro has let us down but its nothing compared to how inconsistent  the GFS is. I'm gonna hope this one works itself out 

[winterwx21]

Just hit 52 degrees here. Temps well above forecast today. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro has been showing phantom 50/50 lows that disappear. Last week as an example, when it had the 50/50 low mirage for Thursday and a snowstorm for a few runs and it turned into 50 degrees and rain. Until a legit 50/50 low shows up or a -NAO, I doubt any major coastal snowstorm

50/50 lows are transient (phantom) without some higher latitude blocking which we do not and probably will not have in the near future. The time-frame that always had the best possibility of being the exception was Jan 22nd give or take a day or two, currently modeled for Jan 23rd and on the current maps there is a lack of cold air. 

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Maybe some snow according to this for interior se NY, nw Ct, and interior eastern Ma but most likely all rain for NYC.

WX/PT

[snowman19]

50/50 lows are transient (phantom) without some higher latitude blocking which we do not and probably will not have in the near future. The time-frame that always had the best possibility of being the exception was Jan 22nd give or take a day or two, currently modeled for Jan 23rd and on the current maps there is a lack of cold air. 
WX/PT

Agreed. It seems like the only one who thinks we are getting an I-95 snowstorm next week is Joe Bastardi. There is no semblance of a legit -NAO block and a marginal airmass. Color me skeptical of next week too

[WX-PA]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro has been showing phantom 50/50 lows that disappear. Last week as an example, when it had the 50/50 low mirage for Thursday and a snowstorm for a few runs and it turned into 50 degrees and rain. Until a legit 50/50 low shows up or a -NAO, I doubt any major coastal snowstorm

Knowing you, I am so shocked you would say that.

[snowman19]

Knowing you, I am so shocked you would say that.

Maybe you would like to give us a detailed explanation of what you will think will happen next week instead of just trolling my posts without any evidence to back it up? What do you think is going to happen and why?


.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agreed. It seems like the only one who thinks we are getting an I-95 snowstorm next week is Joe Bastardi. There is no semblance of a legit -NAO block and a marginal airmass. Color me skeptical of next week too

We'll see how the EPS trends and then tonight's guidance but there are so many particulars which have to fall into place for Sun-Tues to work out for us here and right now it just seems as though the odds are they won't all do so. We need a cold enough air mass to start, we need to see it lock in with a 50/50, we need the low track close enough but not too close, it just doesn't seem likely we're going to get all of that.

WX/PT