January 2023

[LibertyBell]

Just now, JTA66 said:

At least 1989-90 was bone-rattling cold from Thanksgiving to New Years. And we did have the Thanksgiving Eve snowstorm that year.

Despite it being a super nino, this year reminds me of 1997-98 so far. All we had that year was  2-3 day arctic outbreak around New Years and that was it (at least here imby). So far all we’ve had this year was a 3-4 day arctic shot at Christmas.

That stream of moisture into California is very much like a very strong el nino too

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

So it's right on the NJ shoreline as compared with last night's. 

WX/PT

and a lot windier and stronger too-- more reason for this to come west

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

And to finish our possibly favorable period we might (if the Euro is correct) have two more shots at some wintry precipitation. 

WX/PT

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This guy is actually really good, not biased and explains things very well. This is a good tweet chain explaining what is happening with the pattern

The question is why didn't it snow when we had the el nino pattern? Was the timing very poor so that when you have an el nino pattern early in the winter it means mild rainy weather and when you have a la nina pattern later in the winter it means mild dry weather?  So basically we had each type of pattern at the worst possible time?

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and a lot windier and stronger too-- more reason for this to come west

 

Maybe. But how windy the system actually is will not have much effect on its eventual track. What's going on on the West Coast and over the Great Lakes and Ontario/Quebec, and Atlantic will.

WX/PT

[donsutherland1]

The measurable snow drought is likely to continue for some time in Baltimore, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. The 12z GFS offers a grim nightmare of the drought’s continuation through its forecast horizon. However, skill scores drop significantly after 7 days.

[HeadInTheClouds]

28 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Unfortunately this ends up as a phase-up and NOT where the Euro had it last night but right off the central NJ coast--coast hugger. A cold rain, probably 34 and rain. Last night's run colder and snowier with no phase and the southern system ending up further s and e.

WX/PT

Good for well N and W not that I trust any operational beyond 5 days anyway. 

[SACRUS]

Nice Sat loop

 

[CIK62]

With a day like this lurking---after the  multiple +5 to +15 days that precede it---what is the use of __________________{fill in time}

A 40 degree  BN patch goes by in northeast Canada before the month mercifully ends.    January 29 could be BN---barely so.

 

[donsutherland1]

An offshore storm spread clouds but not snow into snow drought-stricken southeastern New York State today.
 

[Cfa]

If the rest of this month + Feb are going to be torchy, and if next December doesn’t have any abnormal cold snaps, it’s entirely possible that some annual minimum temp records are in jeopardy.

[Chinook]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Nice Sat loop

 

Is this a warm seclusion?

 

[Roger Smith]

I have a full data table for NYC available over in the climate change forum for anyone who wants to download it, but for 1980s snowfalls greater than 3" over consecutive two day intervals here's what I see (I added 1990-91 to 1992-93): 

1979-80 _ 3.5" Dec 19, 4.6" Mar 13-14 (3.6, 1.0), 

1980-81 _ 4.9" Jan 6-7 (0.8, 4.1), 8.6" Mar 5

1981-82 _ 9.3" Jan 13-14 (5.8, 3.5), 9.6" Apr 6

1982-83 _ 3.0" Dec 12, 3.9" Feb 6-7 (2.5, 1.4), 17.6" Feb 11-12 (12.5, 5.1), 

1983-84 _ 5.1" Jan 10-11 (3.4, 1.7), 4.6" Jan 18-19 (4.2, 0.4), 6.9" Mar 8-9 (1.8, 5.1), 3.3" Mar 28-29 (1.5, 1.8)

1984-85 _ 4.8" Dec 27, 4.1" Jan 17, 4.3" Feb 2, 5.7" Feb 5-6 (3.3, 2.4)

1985-86 _ 4.5" Feb 7-8 (4.3, 0.2), 4.5" Feb 11

1986-87 _ 8.1" Jan 22, 3.5" Jan 26, 4.2" Feb 23, 

1987-88 _ 5.8" Jan 3-4 (1.8, 4.0), 5.2" Jan 8

1988-89 _ 5.0" Jan 6, 

1989-90 _ 4.7" Nov 22-23 (0.3, 4.4),  3.1" Mar 6

1990-91 _ 7.2" Dec 27-28 (0.6, 6.6), 5.7" Jan 11, 8.9" Feb 26-27

1991-92 _ 6.2" Mar 19 and 3.2" Mar 22

1992-93 _ 3.4" Feb 12-13 (3.0, 0.4), 4.3" Feb 21, 10.6" Mar 13-14 (10.2, 0.4)

If you recall an early snowfall it may be 1.1" on Nov 11, 1987. 

A very late snowfall was 0.8" on Apr 19, 1983 (a trace fell on Apr 23rd 1986).

Some snowfalls that did not qualify but were perhaps greater away from NYC, 1.6" both Dec 23-24 1980 and Dec 22-24 1989, then 2.6" Dec 29, 1987, 2.0" Jan 5, 1980, 1.9" Jan 23, 1982, 2.4" Jan 21, 1991, 2.7" Jan 25-26 1988 (2.1, 0.6), 2.4" Feb 12, 1987, 1.8" Feb 25, 1990, 2.5" Mar 6, 1989.

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I have a full data table for NYC available over in the climate change forum for anyone who wants to download it, but for 1980s snowfalls greater than 3" over consecutive two day intervals here's what I see (I added 1990-91): 

1979-80 _ 3.5" Dec 19, 4.6" Mar 13-14 (3.6, 1.0), 

1980-81 _ 4.9" Jan 6-7 (0.8, 4.1), 8.6" Mar 5

1981-82 _ 9.3" Jan 13-14 (5.8, 3.5), 9.6" Apr 6

1982-83 _ 3.0" Dec 12, 3.9" Feb 6-7 (2.5, 1.4), 17.6" Feb 11-12 (12.5, 5.1), 

1983-84 _ 5.1" Jan 10-11 (3.4, 1.7), 4.6" Jan 18-19 (4.2, 0.4), 6.9" Mar 8-9 (1.8, 5.1), 3.3" Mar 28-29 (1.5, 1.8)

1984-85 _ 4.8" Dec 27, 4.1" Jan 17, 4.3" Feb 2, 5.7" Feb 5-6 (3.3, 2.4)

1985-86 _ 4.5" Feb 7-8 (4.3, 0.2), 

1986-87 _ 8.1" Jan 22, 3.5" Jan 26, 4.2" Feb 23, 

1987-88 _ 5.8" Jan 3-4 (1.8, 4.0), 5.2" Jan 8

1988-89 _ 5.0" Jan 6, 

1989-90 _ 4.7" Nov 22-23 (0.3, 4.4),  3.1" Mar 6

1990-91 _ 7.2" Dec 27-28 (0.6, 6.6), 5.7" Jan 11, 

If you recall an early snowfall it may be 1.1" on Nov 11, 1987. 

A very late snowfall was 0.8" on Apr 19, 1983 (a trace fell on Apr 23rd 1986).

Feb 86 had another event but maybe it didn't make it to 3"?

[lee59]

So far this month my averages are High 48.2 and low 35.4. My low temperature has been 28.4. My low is actually higher than the average minimum.

[Roger Smith]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Feb 86 had another event but maybe it didn't make it to 3"?

Spotted that on edit, check it out, you were correct. Also found one other in late Feb 1991 and added some near misses to the list. 

[tmagan]

Central Park has had 19 consecutive days with above normal mean temperatures, streak may make it to near 30 in a row before it ends.

[jconsor]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

That arctic blast was amazing, the first true arctic blast in our new house which we moved into in May 1984 (after another very cold winter with a couple of back to back moderate 4-5 inch snowfalls...I think those were in February.)

I just distinctly remember an 8.6" snowfall occuring sometime during the first winter in our house that only changed to drizzle at the very end.  I wonder where we can find the top snowfalls from the 1980s, that 8.6" snowfall has to be in there somewhere.  There was also a 7" incher where I got locked out of my house because the door was frozen shut-- I think that was in January....the 8.6" measurement was at Central Park and the 7" measurement was for a different storm at LGA.

Also consider that even though 1983-84 and 1984-85 had periods of historic cold from time to time....they also had winter 70 to even 75 degree temps at other times lol.

As far as the snowfall in the 1980s that produced 8.6" in NYC and only changed to drizzle at the very end... I think you are talking about the Jan 22, 1987 snowstorm.  This was a huge forecast bust and (along with Hurricane Gloria) the storm that got me interested in weather as a young child growing up in Long Island (Roslyn).  I was in first grade at the time.  I distinctly remember hearing forecasts for a quick slushy inch or two then changing to heavy rain, and being the only child in my school who brought snow boots. 

I recall that unlike many heavy snow events, there wasn't a couple hours of light snow at the beginning.  Nearly from the beginning it just poured down huge flakes and started piling up very quickly (1"+ per hour for many hours).  It started snowing in the morning and by the time our school day was supposed to end in mid-afternoon, the snow was coming down too fast for the unprepared plows to keep up (plus there are some significant hills that the school buses in our town need to ascend).  Thus we were stuck at school for about six hours! The staff brought up mattresses for us to sleep on the floor of the school gym.  

In the end we got about 9-10".  The Jan 22, 1987 snowstorm paralyzed many areas along the I-95 corridor from DC to NYC (Boston was too far east relative to storm track and quickly changed to rain).  It was followed four days later by another heavy snowstorm in the southern and eastern mid-Atlantic.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, jconsor said:

I think you are talking about the Jan 22, 1987 snowstorm.  This was a huge forecast bust and (along with Hurricane Gloria) the storm that got me interested in weather as a young child growing up in Long Island (Roslyn).  I was in first grade at the time.  I distinctly remember hearing forecasts for a quick slushy inch or two then changing to heavy rain, and being the only child in my school who brought snow boots. 

I recall that unlike many heavy snow events, there wasn't a couple hours of light snow at the beginning.  Nearly from the beginning it just poured down huge flakes and started piling up very quickly (1"+ per hour for many hours).  It started snowing in the morning and by the time our school day was supposed to end, the snow was coming down too fast for the unprepared plows to keep up (plus there are some significant hills that the school buses in our town need to ascend).  Thus we were stuck at school for about six hours! The staff brought up mattresses for us to sleep on the floor of the school gym.  

In the end we got about 9-10".  The Jan 22, 1987 snowstorm paralyzed many areas along the I-95 corridor from DC to NYC (Boston was too far east relative to storm track and quickly changed to rain).  It was followed four days later by another heavy snowstorm in the southern and eastern mid-Atlantic.

It's funny because just west of the city we were always forecast to get 10-12" and I ended up with just about a foot.  It snowed 1-2" an hour for 7 hours with a touch of sleet at the end

[donsutherland1]

An offshore storm will graze eastern Long Island and eastern New England tonight and tomorrow. Parts of that region, including Boston, could see a period of snow. Boston could pick up around an inch of snow. Meanwhile, the lengthening measurable snow drought will persist in New York City and Philadelphia.

Milder weather will then return and persist through much of the week before cooler air returns. The duration of any cooler period is uncertain, as some of the extended guidance returns ridging to the East near the end of January or very early in February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions.

The SOI was +8.20 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.907   today.

On January 13 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.946 (RMM). The January 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.875 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.8° (7.1° above normal).

 

[Roger Smith]

Don, where was 1949-1950 on that futility index? I have a feeling it may boot 2015-16 off the list in coming days. I think some older winters might not show very well because they ran up some inconsequential snowfalls between mild spells and didn't have the full benefit of the modern urban heat island, such as 1905-06 and 1912-13, 1915-16. Those must have seemed quite mild at the time. Also 1889-1890 has a lot of significant warm days throughout the winter, not sure how much snow might have fallen between those events but the winter set quite a few records which later were broken, as well as retaining a couple to the present time. Also that was a very mild winter as far north as Toronto. A really dismal summer followed it. 

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Don, where was 1949-1950 on that futility index? I have a feeling it may boot 2015-16 off the list in coming days. I think some older winters might not show very well because they ran up some inconsequential snowfalls between mild spells and didn't have the full benefit of the modern urban heat island, such as 1905-06 and 1912-13, 1915-16. Those must have seemed quite mild at the time. Also 1889-1890 has a lot of significant warm days throughout the winter, not sure how much snow might have fallen between those events but the winter set quite a few records which later were broken, as well as retaining a couple to the present time. Also that was a very mild winter as far north as Toronto. A really dismal summer followed it. 

Using today's data, 1949-50 will move up to 9th on the list (40.7° mean temperature/1.8" snow through January 15th). For the entire winter, it tied with 1974-75 at 12th with a mean temperature of 37.7° and seasonal snowfall of 14.0".

[donsutherland1]

30 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Don, where was 1949-1950 on that futility index? I have a feeling it may boot 2015-16 off the list in coming days. I think some older winters might not show very well because they ran up some inconsequential snowfalls between mild spells and didn't have the full benefit of the modern urban heat island, such as 1905-06 and 1912-13, 1915-16. Those must have seemed quite mild at the time. Also 1889-1890 has a lot of significant warm days throughout the winter, not sure how much snow might have fallen between those events but the winter set quite a few records which later were broken, as well as retaining a couple to the present time. Also that was a very mild winter as far north as Toronto. A really dismal summer followed it. 

In terms of earlier winters, 1931-32 ranked 2nd behind 2001-02. 1918-19 ranked 6th. Those rankings are for the entire snow season.

[tim]

Sleet/ ice pellets here in eastport..35*

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's funny because just west of the city we were always forecast to get 10-12" and I ended up with just about a foot.  It snowed 1-2" an hour for 7 hours with a touch of sleet at the end

Yes this was one of a handful of rare instances in which a storm stayed non-rain for longer than forecast (another being a 1994 ice event which was supposed to change over to rain in the AM but never did, even here on the Nassau south shore.)

All day watched the snow out the windows at school.  Like most of us here, was more tuned into the meteorology than the other kids, so while they were just blissfully ignorant, I was thinking 'it's still going to turn to rain and ruin it anyway' unable to really enjoy it, hmm much like now!

Here it did ultimately turn to steady rain for a considerable time period before ending.  I think we got about 9" here.  To date the absolute most water-logged snow I ever had to shovel.

[CIK62]

Rest of month to average 40degs.(35/45) or +7 ???        We would end up at about +8.0 with this setup.

 

[psv88]

My god this winter blows

[etudiant]

19 minutes ago, psv88 said:

My god this winter blows

NYC looks poised to set a new all time record for consecutive days without snow, so it likely is an historic season, even if it does not meet our expectations.

[vegan_edible]

fingers crossed?

[TriPol]

Well, let's get this winter over with. If it's not going to snow, then let's get to an early spring!