the_other_guy Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 3 hours ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Watch spring will be cool and wet again Of course it will be. You think youre going into May +5-10 for the year?? Given that this gets made up in Mar/Apr timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Parts of the region saw snow flurries and snow showers, along with temperatures in the 30s. Nevertheless, New York City (Central Park) again failed to record measurable snow. The measurable snow drought has now reached 311 consecutive days, which is the 4th longest such stretch on record. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and seasonably cold. An offshore storm could spread clouds into the region late tomorrow into Monday. Parts of eastern Long Island and eastern New England, including Boston, could see a period of snow. Right now, the odds favor a light to perhaps moderate snowfall in that area. Farther west, the measurable snow drought will very likely continue in Philadelphia and New York City. Milder weather will then return and persist through much of next week before cooler air returns. The duration of any cooler period is uncertain, as some of the extended guidance returns ridging to the East near the end of January or very early in February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions. The SOI was -9.42 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.233 today. On January 12 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.874 (RMM). The January 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.529 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (6.9° above normal). 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: @stemwinder would probably know Jan 26 2011 gave us a stemwinder of a storm. Here's the morning after in Central NJ: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 For a storm thats supposed to be far away,i can't help but notice the winds picking up and on and off snow showers and flurries most of the day. Rn its snowing lightly here in the bx and i expect the radar to expand as the storm approaches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Winter alive and well out west. Nice to see a dent put in the drought. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: For a storm thats supposed to be far away,i can't help but notice the winds picking up and on and off snow showers and flurries most of the day. Rn its snowing lightly here in the bx and i expect the radar to expand as the storm approaches. It would be exciting if there were a renegade TROWELL or inverted trof well to the west of the modeled precip. shield. It's not like it's completely unprecedented, but very unlikely in this situation. There are just limited lifting mechanisms to generate precip. west of eastern LI. Scattered flurries are probably all most will get outside E LI, or SECT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Seems like the snow shower/flurries over parts of the city keeps on back building over the same area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Snowing gd rn over the bx,expanding right over nyc. The bx has recorded snow accumulation for the year while cpk hasn't had a trace yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Snowing gd rn over the bx,expanding right over nyc. The bx has recorded snow accumulation for the year while cpk hasn't had a trace yet Central Park did have a trace today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Snow shower again. Is this sound effect? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Dusting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Light snow here, car tops getting dusted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Running "Out of the Money". Much warmer again at tail end. My horse finished first in the Fifth---but he was entered in the Fourth. PNA crash does it again: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Holy snow squall. Definitely sound effect snow right now. Echoes popping over the island. Nice dusting now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Seems snow showers increasing just inland from Maine to south Jersey. Maybe the moisture from off shore front and storm hitting the cold air. Would be nice to see it fill in over night and have a light snow fall even in Central Park. Just a thought, probably won't happen but this time yesterday I would have said snow showers today wouldn't happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 10 hours ago, eduggs said: I suppose it's possible I'm in favor of anything that brings us snow. Raindrops and snowflakes need nuclei - usually dust particles - to crystallize around and transfer vapor into the solid phase. I believe salt particularly near coastal regions, e.g., LI, coastal SNE, are very efficient at facilitating crystallization. My guess is this would promote flurries vs. drizzle but it's possible it could allow precipitation to form below the normal crystallization zone. It makes me wonder if this is how it sometimes snows (or drizzles) when you don't see anything on radar. Low level "under the radar"-- you often see this when it's very cold and you see these beautiful sparkly tiny snow crystals drifting down-- this happened a lot in February 2015. Another thing which could help precipitate is meteoric dust, which makes me wonder if precipitation is more likely just after meteor showers occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A short video from this morning. I love seeing the snow and the swans! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 11 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: My bad stemwinder. Nice catch. Yeah do not remember the last one other than 2000. You would think there would be more with ridging in the Atlantic. it also makes me think we should see stemwinding tropical systems too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Congrats on your "overperforming 'event'" NYC/Long Island crew! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 10 hours ago, USCG RS said: The saving grace to this winter is heating oil. In October/November the Energy and Emergency Management community were preparing for the worst, including an inability of the average person to afford it while also being concerned about the need for rolling electric blackouts due to a lack of supply. Thankfully, the rather mild winter has negated this threat for the most part. Yeah.. I don't think Central Suffolk and east should sleep on this I would argue in some ways yes and here's why: our area, LI especially, is directly abutting the water. All snow for us is essentially thread the needle, even in a great pattern (of course there are always exceptions). The WAR forces warm air towards the island without much to subdue it. Ie, southerly winds or pushing an LP too close to LI/SE CT/NYC is a recipe for disaster because of our proximity to the water. There is, of course, a flip side to this. The WAR causes a plethora of baroclynicity and this can really benefit the area when the gradient is in the right location. Humans are still more intuitive than machines when they listen to themselves. For now, anyway Ya know... The USSR used to seed and play with salt for wx purposes... Yep, all complex animals have intuition, it's amazing really. I even read that trees in the Amazon control their own weather-- it's fascinating! Science papers were written on how they control nucleation..... About non thread the needle HECS snowstorms, I've always wondered how they happen.... like February 1978, February 1983, January 1996, PD 2 February 2003, January 2016 are the only ones I can think of offhand.....the other ones were thread the needle for the most part (even Boxing Day). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 15 minutes ago, lee59 said: Seems snow showers increasing just inland from Maine to south Jersey. Maybe the moisture from off shore front and storm hitting the cold air. Would be nice to see it fill in over night and have a light snow fall even in Central Park. Just a thought, probably won't happen but this time yesterday I would have said snow showers today wouldn't happen. the wind is sure blowing now....there was no snow in the afternoon and we just got a coating (T). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 57 minutes ago, lee59 said: Light snow here, car tops getting dusted. Nothing here since about noon, what does the radar look like for sw nassau? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 6 hours ago, the_other_guy said: Of course it will be. You think youre going into May +5-10 for the year?? Given that this gets made up in Mar/Apr timeframe There's a chance for a 2002 like pattern which I would love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Hard to say where it will snow shower. They seem to form, diminish and then form again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Nothing here since about noon, what does the radar look like for sw nassau? Not doing much here now but just had enough in the past hour to whiten the cars again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Snow sticking on cold surfaces. Nice little burst over the last 15 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Snowing in Astoria 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 this wind can kindly fudge off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 The GEFS just got even uglier (if that’s possible) by 2/1. It has a flat Aleutian ridge and a -PNA trough digging down into Baja. If that’s correct it’s a lights out look, even without the SE ridge. As depicted, that would completely flood Canada and the CONUS with Pacific Maritime air, arctic completely cutoff. The PAC is a total cluster you know what on that run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The GEFS just got even uglier (if that’s possible) by 2/1. It has a flat Aleutian ridge and a -PNA trough digging down into Baja. If that’s correct it’s a lights out look, even without the SE ridge. As depicted, that would completely flood Canada and the CONUS with Pacific Maritime air, arctic completely cutoff. The PAC is a total cluster you know what on that run It would be interesting if we could challenge records from 1972-73 and 2001-02 for snowfall and warmth. I'm kind of disappointed we had that meaningless dry cold in December now. It probably means we can't beat any mild winter records but snowfall records are definitely in play on the low end lol. Are you confident about an el nino for next winter? Wouldn't it be more interesting if we somehow pulled off another la nina-- a 4 year la nina is unprecedented in modern times. Or we could have a neutral which would be another bad winter most likely? 01-02 was a neutral after a three year la nina and we saw how that turned out lol. I wonder if it's ever happened that we went right from a three year la nina into an el nino or if going to neutral first is more common? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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