January 2023

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Officially on the board with a “trace!”

Protecting my 7 & 1/2 flakes like they’re white gold… 

wow are you my neighbor? thats exactly what his roof looks like right now!

I just checked and his roof has  a little more, the entire roof has a coating of white now

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I see flurries in NYC this morning.  RGEM the only model to hint this. 

 

if you look back on modeling for this morning... which model had a bit of snow for CT/MA/LI this morning????? The RGEM and I think it was the RGEM only.  You're invited to check back and call me on it. Certainly not the over hyped EC nor the maligned GFS.

This at least is a moral victory for all who predicted a big winter event here for the 14th.  Flurries are hope. Slight accums nowcast expectation today for parts of CT/LI.

roofs are coated with snow and its been snowing steadily for a few hours here

 

[lee59]

Light snow 31 degrees, beginning to stick.

[LibertyBell]

cartops are also covered now with a coating and a big fat snowflake just came and stuck to my window and hasn't melted yet lol

 

[dWave]

Will Central Park get a tenth? They look just barely too west. So the streak may live on. Maybe some pockets in Queens, Bx, Westchester could get a coating. View toward Orchard beach and LI north shore looks snowier.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, dWave said:

Will Central Park get a tenth? They look just barely too west. So the streak may live on. Maybe some pockets in Queens, Bx, Westchester could get a coating. View toward Orchard beach and LI north shore looks snowier.

Let's see what JFK gets

 

[dmillz25]

Borderline light snow here in northern Brooklyn 

[wdrag]

0.2" so far parts of nw CT hills.

[lee59]

Storm offshore tomorrow keeps inching a little closer. Looks like eastern Long Island may get something. Southeastern New England looks to get accumulating snow.

[CIK62]

The most BN 7 days I could find:

UNLESS you want to go to Week 6:    We need this now!

[lee59]

Central Park reporting 32 degrees with light snow. Is this their first 32 degree reading all month?

[EastonSN+]

Hey if Central Park is going to break the record, THIS is how I hope it pans out. Just like last year and most winters we fail, the south racks up.

Would be funny no?

Delmarva the middle Atlantic buffalo 

 

[LibertyBell]

Looks like the snow has ended and already melting from the rooftops

[LibertyBell]

Honestly if JFK only reported a T in that event in December when we got half an inch I don't see how they will get more with this....that was more snow than what we got with this event.

 

[CIK62]

BUT I saw a real snow shower here in CI back on NOVEMBER 21!   But Whuppy Doo.............

NEW YORK CENTRAL PARK, NY (   89')                   LAT=40.77N LON= 73.98W   
STA     TMP DP RH  WD WS  G PRS  ALT PCPN     CLOUD LEVELS HGT TYP   VIS  WX
NYC  4am 35 25 66 000  6 19 070 2976                        33 OVC    10
     5am 33 26 75 350  7 16 073 2977                        36 OVC     4 S-
     6am 34 23 63 350  9 19 074 2977                39 SCT  55 OVC    10
     7am 34 23 63 350  9 17 080 2979  TR            25 SCT  36 OVC    10
    0713 33 24 69 010  7 15     2980                24 BKN  36 OVC    10
    0743 32 25 75 360  7        2980        18 SCT  25 SCT  37 OVC     3 S-
     8am 32 26 78 000  6    084 2980                19 SCT  37 OVC     3 S-
    0802 33 26 75 040  9        2981                17 BKN  37 OVC     5 H
     9am 33 25 71 000  4    097 2984        18 BKN  23 BKN  35 OVC    10
NYC    6 temps: high=  35 at  4am low=  32 at 0743 mean=  33.5   precip= TRACE

 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Eps fully caved to gefs rna pattern…

 

Its over 

True BUT the GEFS went less hostile with a movement towards what the EPA was showing.

1. They both trended towards each other.

2. looks like a la Nina pattern with Blocking.

Now, this can result in one of two ways, 

1. The RNA is too deep and we are 50 to 60 and rainy, similar to last December.

2. The RNA is average and we have a few change over events.

What I want, either

1. Blocking disappears and we have a nice torch of 60 to 70 weather with sun

2. We have enough blocking for some fun, especially with shorter wavelengths 

Let's see what happens 

[EastonSN+]

GEFS

[EastonSN+]

EPS

[EastonSN+]

GEPS

[EastonSN+]

Now, I know everyone will say that we have seen the RNA take over all winter so why expect this to change?

Maybe it will now that it's February and we have shorter wavelengths

[STORMANLI]

2SM -SN

NSP Exits 38-35  Plainview-Hicksville

807am

Wondering if some area(s) get an inch or + with this banding?❄

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy with some flurries. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 30s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 37°

Newark: 37°

Philadelphia: 39°

Tomorrow will be fair and a bit warmer.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.2°; 15-Year: 40.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 39.7°; 15-Year: 40.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.0°; 15-Year: 41.8°

[snowman19]

True BUT the GEFS went less hostile with a movement towards what the EPA was showing.
1. They both trended towards each other.
2. looks like a la Nina pattern with Blocking.
Now, this can result in one of two ways, 
1. The RNA is too deep and we are 50 to 60 and rainy, similar to last December.
2. The RNA is average and we have a few change over events.
What I want, either
1. Blocking disappears and we have a nice torch of 60 to 70 weather with sun
2. We have enough blocking for some fun, especially with shorter wavelengths 
Let's see what happens 

But the NAO is positive. The EPS has been showing phantom 50/50 lows several times only to have them simply disappear, just like this latest 50/50 low fail with the Thurs/Fri rainstorm. A -PNA/SE ridge pattern with a +NAO screams inland runners and cutters, unless you can get a legit 50/50 vortex that is actually real and not an EPS or a GEFS mirage and even then you have to pray the shortwave doesn’t really amp because you don’t have a legit -NAO block to stop the cut

[lee59]

My second biggest snowstorm of the year about an 1/8 inch.

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

But the NAO is positive. The EPS has been showing phantom 50/50 lows several times only to have them simply disappear, just like this latest 50/50 low fail with the Thurs/Fri rainstorm. A -PNA/SE ridge pattern with a +NAO screams inland runners and cutters, unless you can get a legit 50/50 vortex that is actually real and not an EPS or a GEFS mirage and even then you have to pray the shortwave doesn’t really amp because you don’t have a legit -NAO block to stop the cut

Remember though we are talking February with cold air finally in the US.  We have a far better chance of scoring in a weak follow up wave (January 2012) than we do now where there is no Arctic source. 

It doe not look like a "good" snow pattern, but it does not look like a shut out either. 

We NEED a strong cutter to make it happen .

[snowman19]

Now, I know everyone will say that we have seen the RNA take over all winter so why expect this to change?
Maybe it will now that it's February and we have shorter wavelengths

The thing I don’t expect to change is the SE ridge/WAR. @Bluewave has shown that all the models consistently underestimate it and weaken it in the long range only to correct much stronger as we move closer in time. It happens over and over again. This is been going on for years now. I would expect this to be no different given those blazing SSTs off the east coast, there is a positive feedback loop

[donsutherland1]

A dusting in colder spots.

[eduggs]

15 hours ago, lee59 said:

Of course it will eventually happen. Those cancelling winter I think are giving up to soon. Goldberg even indicating a week from now the possibility of some wintry weather in the area. 

Even the CMC and GFS runs that were bringing snow to NYC N&W had a primary SLP into the Lakes. That's not a "pattern" change. I'm rooting for snow as much as anyone, and it could happen next week. But people claiming to see positive changes coming are seeing a mirage. They simple don't learn from their experiences.

[lee59]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Even the CMC and GFS runs that were bringing snow to NYC N&W had a primary SLP into the Lakes. That's not a "pattern" change. I'm rooting for snow as much as anyone, and it could happen next week. But people claiming to see positive changes coming are seeing a mirage. They simple don't learn from their experiences.

I don't think Goldberg was indicating a turn to arctic cold and snow but more of a gradual change to more seasonal and increasing the possible snow chances. This is my interpretation, I can't speak for him. 

 

He also indicated it looks like the run of storms hitting the west coast should end and it will turn colder out there and that chill will start coming eastward. We shall see.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Never started.

Been a bunch of cutters on here since mid November. Just some hype about a great pattern and a 3 day super cold shot.

Youre the only one that keeps reiterating that it is over. Move on.  

its a question of a 0 for CPK or a little bit to save face

Exactly

He keeps repeating him stating it is over. He can stop tracking if he wants but we will all keep tracking.