January 2023

[MJO812]

It's amazing how we can't even see small events this winter. 

Even during horrible winters we see a coating to an inch before a change to rain.

It's unbelievable 

[TWCCraig]

Still no freezes yet in NYC this January. This could make a run for top 3. 

Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32	Missing Count
1	2023	0	19
2	1932	4	0
3	2006	10	0
-	1990	10	0
5	2020	11	0
-	2002	11	0
-	1933	11	0
8	2017	12	0
-	1950	12	1
10	2012	13	0
-	1998	13	0
12	1880	14	0
13	1937	15	0
-	1906	15	0
15	2021	16	0

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's amazing how we can't even see small events this winter. 

Even during horrible winters we see a coating to an inch before a change to rain.

It's unbelievable 

You'll be able to tell your grandkids about the famous winter of 23 with no snow

[Winterweatherlover]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's amazing how we can't even see small events this winter. 

Even during horrible winters we see a coating to an inch before a change to rain.

It's unbelievable 

Hard to get snow to rain when the temperature never goes below 32.  

[Winterweatherlover]

50 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'd take those OP GFS and CMC runs through the end of the mid-range. Couple of wintry threats there. Ensembles say these likely end up weak, dampened waves or cutters. Let's see if the EC shows any movement in the same direction.

I'm sure if it ends up more south it will be more flattened and weakened but at this point I'd take a weak 1-3 inch storm.  

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Hard to get snow to rain when the temperature never goes below 32.  

Which is why I'd be very skeptical of any model run that shows thursday's storm giving us any accumulating snow before changing to rain. It's going to be 50 degrees on wednesday before the storm. Hard to get a front end dump when there isn't any cold air before a storm. 

[Winterweatherlover]

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Which is why I'd be very skeptical of any model run that shows thursday's storm giving us any accumulating snow before changing to rain. It's going to be 50 degrees on wednesday before the storm. Hard to get a front end dump when there isn't any cold air before a storm. 

Yea I think it snows or ices in the interior within the next two weeks, the coastal plain I'm more skeptical of, have to see how strong the confluence is.     

[weatherpruf]

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

You'll be able to tell your grandkids about the famous winter of 23 with no snow

He will be able to tell his grandkids that he's seen snow.....

[weatherpruf]

4 hours ago, North and West said:

Additionally, putting AGW aside for a moment (not discounting it, just not having it in the conversation for the time being), this is very much like the early and late 1990s for those too young to remember. We’ve had these winters before. (Yes, I know that it’s warmer; I’m referring to the rain and then cooldown then cutter, repeat)

I distinctly remember daytime thunderstorms in or around January 1991, because I remember Sam Champion going over the radar on Channel 7 on the news when I got home from grammar school.


.

I bought a big LL Bean winter parka that year, and did not need it until 1994. I've mentioned this before, but so bereft of snow were we in the early 90's that the Star ledger actually ran a headline asking whatever happened to winter? My older relatives would say, remember the snow storms we used to have? Then came 94, 96....and then nada for several years. Thing is, we can and will go years without much snow, but it is obvious climate change is going to make snowier winters harder to come by. In 2010 Philly and the Mid Atlantic had a winter the likes of which we still haven't seen here, but that seems to have been it for them.

[guinness77]

Wind underperformed for this, no? 

[North and West]

I bought a big LL Bean winter parka that year, and did not need it until 1994. I've mentioned this before, but so bereft of snow were we in the early 90's that the Star ledger actually ran a headline asking whatever happened to winter? My older relatives would say, remember the snow storms we used to have? Then came 94, 96....and then nada for several years. Thing is, we can and will go years without much snow, but it is obvious climate change is going to make snowier winters harder to come by. In 2010 Philly and the Mid Atlantic had a winter the likes of which we still haven't seen here, but that seems to have been it for them.

I remember that Star Ledger and the Daily Record effectively canceling winter in the early 1990s.


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[eduggs]

For the late week event next week, the EC is doing what we've come to expect with a SLP into the Lakes and 570dm heights surging towards us.

But as far as I can tell, it is the only hold out amongst the midrange models in terms of showing some wintry precipitation nearby. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

It's amazing how we can't even see small events this winter. 

Even during horrible winters we see a coating to an inch before a change to rain.

It's unbelievable 

It's probably gonna snow at some point. As much as I would personally like to see futility records broken I don't see that happening.

You had a double dip -4 AO in December, the PV is getting stretched beyond belief. At some point it's gonna snow. 

Hell it could pull a 2016 and dump one big blizzard on us. 

[winterwx21]

Just now, eduggs said:

For the late week event next week, the EC is doing what we've come to expect with a SLP into the Lakes and 570dm heights surging towards us.

But as far as I can tell, it is the only hold out amongst the midrange models in terms of showing some wintry precipitation nearby. 

Euro probably will be right, considering how everything has ended up this winter. And even if the other models are right, it's hard to see a front end dump for the NYC area with no cold air in place. You'd probably have to go well NW. 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's probably gonna snow at some point. As much as I would personally like to see futility records broken I don't see that happening.

You had a double dip -4 AO in December, the PV is getting stretched beyond belief. At some point it's gonna snow. 

Hell it could pull a 2016 and dump one big blizzard on us. 

That's our hope of getting fairly close to normal snowfall for the winter. One huge KU in February that saves the winter. Wouldn't be a surprise with today's wild climate. 

[vegan_edible]

It's so far out but lets hope the GFS out-performs the Euro on this one. I have noticed although all these systems have torched, it looks like the Euro over predicts mild temperatures. I have my fingers crossed on this one. But, who knows. I have read some very good looking evidence that the PV will extend to us hopefully bringing some type of snow to the region this winter

[Euripides]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

You'll be able to tell your grandkids about the famous winter of 23 with no snow

With the way world temps are slowly rising there will be more years added to 2023 (if no snow holds) for the area.

[Winterweatherlover]

Euro is a full blown cutter for the late week event but does have a threat on 1/22. 

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

That's our hope of getting fairly close to normal snowfall for the winter. One huge KU in February that saves the winter. Wouldn't be a surprise with today's wild climate. 

That's going to happen more with the oceans warming.

Winter is going to be cut down

[Winterweatherlover]

Euro/CMC/GFS all have >3 inches of snow northwest of I287 in the next 240 hours

 

CMC/GFS have >3 inches of snow from the city north in the next 240 hours.

 

We'll see if winter is coming back or models are teasing.  

[ILoveWinter]

It's just so boring, I mean there has literally been nothing to track at all (within a week or so anyway).  I cannot remember any winter with nothing trackable by mid January (whether or not anything worked out).

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

It's just so boring, I mean there has literally been nothing to track at all (within a week or so anyway).  I cannot remember any winter with nothing trackable by mid January (whether or not anything worked out).

Agree

Its not normal at all

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said:

It's just so boring, I mean there has literally been nothing to track at all (within a week or so anyway).  I cannot remember any winter with nothing trackable by mid January (whether or not anything worked out).

Yeah that's the amazing thing. We haven't even had a close call. It's not as if we had a storm in which southern NJ got snow and we just barely missed out due to bad luck. We haven't even had anything close. It has been the most hopeless winter ever. 

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

It's just so boring, I mean there has literally been nothing to track at all (within a week or so anyway).  I cannot remember any winter with nothing trackable by mid January (whether or not anything worked out).

There are finally some threats to track at least but still kind of fantasy range, although the storm for late next week is at least trackable for now.    

[vegan_edible]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Euro/CMC/GFS all have >3 inches of snow northwest of I287 in the next 240 hours

 

CMC/GFS have >3 inches of snow from the city north in the next 240 hours.

 

We'll see if winter is coming back or models are teasing.  

I live literally 100 yards south of 287, i can see it from my window. I'm praying for this

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

There are finally some threats to track at least but still kind of fantasy range, although the storm for late next week is at least trackable for now.    

Seems extremely unlikely that the late week storm will work out with no cold air in place before the storm. 6 days out so we'll keep an eye on it, but I'm not getting my hopes up on that one. 

[CIK62]

The best chance for 32* is Sunday AM.     That goes for the full 16 days.     It is better than the chance at the end of run when BN air was supposed to arrive.       The chance of at least an inch of snow(not shown) is just 50/50 during the next 16 days.     No improvement for weeks already.

[North and West]

I love how my dehumidifier is running in the basement to help keep moisture out after the mild rains of mid-January.


.

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah that's the amazing thing. We haven't even had a close call. It's not as if we had a storm in which southern NJ got snow and we just barely missed out due to bad luck. We haven't even had anything close. It has been the most hopeless winter ever. 

We are in the minority who are bummed.  Most of the public is eccstatic and thrilled there isn't any snow.  I see those comments online. 

[matt8204]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah that's the amazing thing. We haven't even had a close call. It's not as if we had a storm in which southern NJ got snow and we just barely missed out due to bad luck. We haven't even had anything close. It has been the most hopeless winter ever. 

Yeah, even in '97-'98 (which was also horrible) there were a couple of threats in January that I remember...1/7, 1/22, etc.  There was even a bit of snow in December of '97.  I remember flakes flying the day of the Giants/Vikings playoff game where Big Blue lost a 9-point lead with two minutes left.